Last quote by Andres Jaime
Andres Jaime quotes
For emerging markets, it's very clear after Trump's victory we have seen some re-pricing, with EM currencies going down on the view that anti-globalization, anti-trade would hurt the outlook for emerging markets, some of them heavily dependent on global trade and others that have relatively weak external accounts outlooks.
Something that we do know is (some) of the main developed markets are moving toward a less integrated world. If you think that the emerging markets are the ones that have benefited the most from that, then the scenario is not one that would help emerging markets.
Definitely we think the dollar probably has a bit more room to appreciate versus the emerging market currencies, probably versus the euro but not necessarily versus the yen.
That's why markets are very nervous about it. There's no certainty about it.
People tend to agree that Mexican assets would underperform under a Trump presidency – that's clear for the market.
Markets assume that the weekend's events are lowering the odds of Trump winning the election. Therefore, (the peso) as the purest proxy for the U.S. election is reacting accordingly.
It seems that some of the Fed speakers have a mild impact on rates. Monetary policy normalization will probably come in December.
If a poll in the next few days shows the race is as tight as it (was heading into the debate), then markets will probably sell off.
If we see a major shift in chatter around the dollar, these Japanese companies that actually expect a softer yen, they'd need to rethink their policy.
It depends on Friday. We get the payroll report, and that could be the key. What really made people start unwinding these dollar positions was after the GDP number.
The past month we saw a meaningful move in nonfarm payrolls. In order for September to be back on the table, this report needs to confirm the three-month trend is above 150,000.
From a macro perspective, probably that would be a topic in the fourth quarter.
It should be different if we get [a devaluation]. It should be focused on heavy slowing in the economy rather than focusing on the FX side.
Positioning, hedging for this kind of event was super light. ... When markets realized that (leave was ahead), it's when everything started trading very badly. That was a function of very light positioning.