Andrew Kenningham

Andrew Kenningham has been quoted 8 times. The two most recent articles where Andrew Kenningham has been quoted are World business grows as it faces upcoming risks and Trump's win sparks confusion over the Fed's next move. Most recently, Andrew Kenningham was quoted as having said, “The outlook for this year is reasonably bright despite all the risks. The numbers for January have generally been quite positive.”.

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The lesson of 2016 is that political shocks often have limited economic consequences. Households and businesses in the U.S. may prove quite resilient even if Donald Trump continues to govern in a chaotic manner for months or even years, and even if his economic policies remain unclear.

The outlook for this year is reasonably bright despite all the risks. The numbers for January have generally been quite positive.

Insofar as there is a change in U.S. domestic policy, it will probably be towards looser monetary and fiscal policy which would provide a boost to global demand. Fed officials will wait to see how things pan out in the coming weeks, but it now seems more likely that they will leave rates on hold in December.

Overall, it is not clear that aggressive trade policies by the U.S. would unleash a wave of protectionist measures comparable to that which occurred after the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff in 1930.

It is impossible to be sure what Donald Trump would actually do if he became U.S. president, but our best guess is that he would back away from his most radical proposals on trade policy. And even if he carried out his threats, the consequences would probably be less damaging than many fear.

In a similar vein, threats from the U.S. could, for example, persuade China to scale back subsidies for its steel industry.

With global growth still lacklustre, monetary policy seemingly ineffective and government bond yields unprecedentedly low, the case for fiscal stimulus has become more compelling. Partly as a result, we now expect advanced economies overall to benefit from a small fiscal boost in the next couple of years.

The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Jacob Lew, even claimed ahead of the G-20 summit in China last weekend that the U.S. had won the argument in favour of 'growth rather than austerity' and that this had prompted a policy shift by many G-20 governments.

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