Last quote by Angus Nicholson
Angus Nicholson quotes
Well it is very unlikely that they'll hike rates in September.
Investors [are] in a contradictory situation as to whether they should be focusing on rates settings or the underlying economy.
This is setting up to be another difficult session for Asia-Pacific markets.
Traders are quite concerned that if we see strong (job) numbers on Friday, it could push up the U.S. dollar further and drag down commodity prices.
Low volumes and cautious trade are likely to dictate markets in the lead up to Janet Yellen's speech on Friday.
It's still early days yet for the Jackson Hole conference ... but the markets seem to be already discounting the possibility that Yellen may look to talk up a September rate hike.
With bond yields continuing at record lows, the comparatively higher yields on offer in equities are likely to continue to see support for the index.
The levity seen in oil prices spread throughout the rest of the commodity complex, assisted by some U.S. dollar weakness. The Saudis are happy to commit to some sort of OPEC-wide supply freeze deal so long as Iran is party to it. And Iran refuses to agree to any deal that will inhibit them from lifting their oil output to pre-sanctions level.
Oil is increasingly pulling back towards the $40 a barrel level again and many in the markets are concerned that the shorts may even be looking for prices to drop down towards the $35 level.
BoE Governor Mark Carney's assessment of the post-Brexit U.K. economy was very negative, predicting the unemployment rate will rise from 4.9 percent to 5.5 percent over the next two years despite the new stimulus. That makes it very likely that further cuts to the policy rate and expansions of the BoE's other easing measures will be forthcoming over the coming months, providing further downside risks to the pound.
The most important development overnight is the high expectations for global monetary and fiscal easing are steadily being met.
Markets have continued to drop overnight as the third arrow of Abenomics struggles to find its target, investors continue to worry about the capital adequacy of European banks.
The energy space [in Asia] will be a key drag after the oil price crashed to a three-month low overnight. The materials space is unlikely to provide much lift either, after most industrial metals also headed lower.
We have seen markets stalling a bit of late and lacking a bit of direction. But today we're seeing some very strong reactions, especially in the healthcare and IT space, where a number of companies are quite happy to see the Aussie dollar weaken.
Asian markets do not seem to have been overly perturbed by the S&P 500's negative close or news of the Turkish coup. This week will decide whether this will be a minor blip on the path higher [for markets] or whether this rally will reverse sharply.
The Asian session is set to be dominated by the big Chinese release of gross domestic product (GDP), industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment.
Oil will be front and center in the Asian session today in the wake of the weekly EIA oil inventories report which drove declines in the US markets. Currently, Asian equity markets look set to follow the oil price lower.
China has largely been ignored during the Brexit crisis, but it has managed to weaken its currency substantially throughout the period. Focus will turn again to how its stimulus efforts are faring today with the release of its May PMIs.
While the full consequences of Brexit are still uncertain, the one thing it has accomplished very successfully is dropping global bond yields to new lows and keeping global monetary policy looser for longer.
The Brexit crisis looks like it may be heading into an awkward period of uncertainty as the cogs in the British and EU bureaucracies slowly begin to whir into action.
If this global risk-on sentiment continues to persist, gold could continue to fall to $1,240 an ounce.
Markets seem to have almost entirely priced in a 'remain' vote win, meaning that the market moves and volatility around the vote may be far less than many had expected.
Markets are likely to focus on the take up of Targeted Long-Term Financing Operation (TLTRO) II auction yesterday, with the result to be released on Friday.
This dollar spike has sent jitters through the commodities complex with copper, in particular, having an awful night. LME copper prices hit their February lows, as LME copper inventories look to have seen a massive influx from Chinese copper inventories.
If U.S. data continues to disappoint, the kiwi could continue to push higher in the near term. However, risks to the downside are clearly the potential for another RBNZ rate cut in August or a run of better than expected U.S. data.
If a number in that region is borne out in the official second quarter CPI, you can pretty much guarantee two further rate cuts, maybe even three.
The Aussie dollar is looking increasingly steady below the US$0.72 level. A trip below US$0.70 may not be far off if we see strong US economic data this week.
Markets are playing catch up to communications from the U.S. Federal Reserve as they appear to have dramatically under-priced the likelihood of a rate rise over the coming months.
Markets seem to be in a relatively sweet spot with a steadily stronger U.S. dollar and resilient commodities prices. Many investors have been predicting a pullback in markets, but despite all the negativity, markets have continued to grind higher.
Asian markets are set for a difficult start to the week. Chinese data released over the weekend provides further evidence that its aggressive first quarter stimulus appears to be leveling off into the second quarter.
The USD/JPY moved back into the 109 handle overnight, likely seeing Japanese policy makers breathe a sigh of relief.
This has been very bullish for stocks that benefit from a weaker Aussie dollar, in particular tourism-related stocks, exporters and dollar earners. the Aussie appears to be heading to the $0.71-$0.72 level this week.
The Fed is unlikely to signal June as a potential rate hike meeting, but September is likely to see its market pricing firm alongside inflation expectations.
This is quite positive for the spot price. As more major miners cut production , concerns about oversupply could finally be cooling down.
The hunt for yield evident in the currency markets is likely to see investors keen to pick up the big banks.
Food prices jumped 7.3 percent on-year in February, yet core CPI and non-food CPI both eased. This potentially creates a headache for China's central bank as further monetary policy easing is clearly necessary, but out of control food price inflation could restrain their ability to ease as much as is necessary.
At these [yen] levels, it is hard to see the Bank of Japan not extending their stimulus program in some form at their April 28 meeting.
Chinese data showed further weakening across the board, but it is clear that government spending and a recovery in the real estate market are helping hold up growth. China looks to be returning to a very familiar investment and real estate-driven growth pattern, somewhat at odds with their claims of economic rebalancing.
The big question is do we see a pick up in the second quarter once China does pass through the seasonal disruption, but at the moment there is little hope for that to happen in any significant way.
Markets look set for a volatile week as a raft of data releases globally set markets up for a dramatic reweighting of growth expectations.
The grand macro-economic elephant in the room is what happens if China is forced into a major one-off devaluation in retaliation. Markets are unlikely to react well to a big yuan devaluation, and the further the ECB and the BOJ force their currencies down, the more they push the PBOC to act themselves.
It was clear that the market was initially hoping for more dovish language, which prompted the selloff into the U.S. close. However, as cooler heads prevailed and analysis began to circulate, the statement did actually show a noticeable dovish tilt to it.
Given the pick-up in a range of Chinese activity data we have seen in November and December, there is a decent possibility we actually see a slight beat for GDP, industrial production and fixed asset investment.
All bets will be off once the Chinese markets come online. The big unknown today is whether we have seen a sustainable bounce in Chinese equities and whether yesterday's gains can be held onto.
A lot of recent data has emphasised that the bottom has not quite fallen out of the global economy, but a negative feedback loop of self-perpetuating fear seems to have gripped global markets.
With UK and US markets closed overnight, Asian markets will be looking to Europe for leads today.