Ari Wald - Oppenheimer Holdings

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It's been 'too far, too fast' for the last 200 percent of its rally.feedback
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May 23 2017
The latest quote from Ari Wald is: “We don't think the flatter curve is a warning. As long as banks can borrow short[-term debt] and lend long[-term debt], we think the economy can do just fine and the stock market can do just fine. In fact, the level and direction of the yield curve now looks a lot like it did in 1994 and it looks a lot like it did in 2004 – years where you still wanted to be invested in stocks.”. It comes from the Bond market warning? A closely watched economic indicator just hit a postelection low article. You’ll find on this page 63 articles with Ari Wald quoted on topics such as S&P and Microsoft. Ari Wald has been quoted 85 times in 63 articles.
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Ari Wald quotes

What we've recommended is paying attention to this equity cycle but not playing the interest rate game.feedback

We have seen the index oscillate around the the 50-day at times. It can create some whipsaws. It is a widely watched level. That would be a near term win for the bulls if we were to close above the 50-day moving average.feedback

We think you have to use these market pullbacks to add to your exposure; we think the bull market is intact. The numbers speak for itself; we think this pullback is an opportunity to buy.feedback

That's really limited gold over the last few years.feedback

Here's a stock that this is coming out of a two-year base, and its breakout at $20 is now support.feedback

Over the last 10 years it's been rewarding to rotate into the US after similar bouts of Europe outperformance. We've found it is very rare for Europe to outperform in a falling S&P 500 absolute tape. So generally, a bet on Europe is a bet, really, on U.S. and global equities as a whole. I think this is really the uber-bullish scenario people aren't talking about: Europe continues to lead the way, S&P 500 is going much higher with it. Just from a risk/reward basis, we do have some preference for the S&P 500.feedback

And argues for additional gains over the coming months.feedback

This time around, we have this index breaking out to new highs, so you haven't seen the same type of weakness in these shares.feedback

What's interesting is that the performance of the stocks with the most buybacks did indeed peak ahead [of a broader market peak in October]. So in the past, it has been a good warning sign.feedback

I think the key here is being patient, and I think it just needs some time. I think you want to see it carve out that base, but come second half of the year, we do think financials should continue to do well. So a little bit more neutral, near term.feedback

If you were to break below 2.3 percent, I would worry. I generally view that the direction is equally important as the level.feedback

First off, we're bullish on the stock market in general, so step one, the question we have to ask ourselves is, what sector do we want to own? Answer: We think technology. Bit of a rotation idea here. [There was a] prior period of underperformance, beginning to shift higher, reverse higher, and I think this is playing the rotation game here within this leading group.feedback

What we're seeing is a characteristic of a very healthy bull market.feedback

In fact, I think for the long run this could be quite positive. Overall, stocks ex-those tied to oil prices, should continue to do well as long as oil prices are low and stable, and avoid a steep run-up.feedback

It's building momentum, and the trend's improving. On that breakout, we see upside to $350.feedback

So this is a sign of a healthy sector; rallies led by many stocks are usually rallies that continue.feedback

We came into the year with a 2017 target of 2500 for the S&P 500, and we think this is still likely to occur.feedback

We see the case to buy Russia in ruble terms; unfortunately U.S. investors don't have that option, so we recommend staying away. So at best, we see this as a base; at worst, we see this as a resumption of that longer-term downtrend. Added up, risk-reward is very poor here. We recommend staying away.feedback

We recommend staying away from the traditional retailers; we think they continue to underperform, examining a chart of the XRT relative to the S&P 500 over the last decade.feedback

But I think if you're in it, you let it ride, and if you do get a pullback, you want to buy it. We like tech for the long-run.feedback

I think you want to own the smaller to mid-cap stocks in the group, which are actually showing some more relative strength here, pointing to a chart of the XBI. So for upside, we think XBI gets back to $80. That'll take the ETF more or less near where it started to break down back at peak levels around 2015, very strong setup here.feedback

The charts are bullish. They argue for a sustainable breakout here, and that the stock should be bought. The first thing you'll note is that it has a rising 200-day moving average. So that's indicative of the stock's bullish trend that it's possessed for a couple of months now.feedback

Another reason why we think it goes higher is just the similarities to how this stock traded back in the second half of 2013, into 2014; that after a year of decline, you can see in that prior period, that the 200-day started to push higher, pull back to that 200-day, great buying opportunities, and then that final inflection which really marked the sustainable turn. We're seeing very similar price action.feedback

There [are] some differences in the construction of these indexes.feedback

That's resistance; hasn't been able to push through, does suggest we are due for some sort of a pause to refresh the trend, adding that.feedback

Our take is that the longer-term bull market is continuing. After spending six weeks consolidating sideways, which is often the case in a strong bull market, you see more time corrections than a correction through price. Presidents can magnify and potentially dampen the equity cycle and performance in some sectors and industries. But for the most part, I don't think that's going to be the key determinant. My take is any sort of bad news in that sector is probably already priced in. It's still a group that is down 26 percent from where it peaked back in 2014.feedback

I don't think there's much significance about these round numbers. Surely they're psychological. It's closely watched. Our take is we're going to get there whether it happens today, tomorrow or next week. It's probably not very important. Looking through 2017, I think we go well beyond it. I think the market could be up 10 percent this year. Today is possibly signaling a resumption of the longer term bull market that we think is still in play.feedback

We constantly preach that rather than market timing, you always want to consistently buy the sectors and stocks with the best relative trends, and we think tech has the best relative trends in the market right now.feedback

We recommend holders of the yellow metal look to take profits here.feedback

So the trend is a tailwind here. I think it's most likely to be a sluggish grind higher.feedback

It's more recently completed a yearlong bottoming formation and, in the charts, we can see it's got a rising 200-day moving average as well.feedback

Since 1928, the S&P [500] has been higher in 68 out of 88 years.feedback

We're right there. It looks like we're a rounding error away.feedback

It's strong but not too strong. That's your Goldilocks scenario. The turn in the sentiment and mood of the market between the first quarter and now is truly amazing.feedback

There's no sign of a meaningful top in place. It's come with the right leadership, improving credit spreads, interest rates moving in the right direction. It's also the underlying factors that characterizes a continuation of a trend rather than a reversal.feedback

This is a horrendous idea. This is a strategy based solely on predicting what the weather is going to be.feedback

The factors that have pressured it have indeed been the stronger dollar, and I think gold is selling off as a safe-haven asset as well, with the market embracing more risk, and I think that can continue.feedback

After that spike, gold ultimately settled back into its base and it really required another two years of basing until it really started to break higher again. We think we're in a similar basing period, where it's probably, at best, dead money here, even if it is coming into some sort of support. That prior low at $1,045 I think is the important level here.feedback

Historically speaking, the numbers argue for more gains for the Dow Jones industrial average.feedback

Yes, we are near-term overbought. But not to miss the forest for the trees, we do think the longer-term trend here is bullish for the S&P 500.feedback

The charts are telling us that higher valuations are justified, and a repricing is needed for the market.feedback

From a trading basis, we think the EEM rallies towards $40 over the coming months.feedback

We're near-term overbought. There could be some consolidation, but we're breaking higher and we're breaking higher with the right leadership and in the right way.feedback

We recommend Overweight exposure to the Technology sector, and see AAPL as a tactical idea that hasn't run up as much as the rest of the sector. The stock has largely underperformed since peaking in May 2015, now seeing signs of a reversal that bears resemblance to the reversal in shares in 2013.feedback

This is very classic bull-market behavior. When the Fed starts to tighten interest rates, you have your mid-cycle correction – that's what we've had over the last year, the very wide gyrations – and now we're breaking out to the upside.feedback

Risk is coming back to the market after really, how we see it, a two-year decline favoring risk-off trades. So we think the bull market's continuing.feedback

You do tend to see the pace of advance moderate a bit when the Fed raises rates.feedback

I think there is indeed strength in the charts here, we're seeing it in today's breakout move, and I think it is signaling that overall economic growth is ticking higher again.feedback

Investors are selling safety stocks, selling interest rates sensitive, and buying banks and tech.feedback

We don't see that toppy activity at all; we want to be exposed to equities right here.feedback

We see, actually, very healthy bull-market-type activity underneath the surface, so I wouldn't be worried about the elevated levels of M&A activity.feedback

We think that it's setting up a new leg of outperformance in the direction that [Alphabet] has already established long-term uptrend.feedback

I would be staying away from this one; I don't think the trend has come around enough. The stock has been beaten up, and we are indeed seeing some signs of stabilization at this $400 level; this is a very important level.feedback

We'd rather, if you get a pop, to sell it, rather than if you get a drop, to buy it.feedback

But now we're seeing some profit-taking in those groups. What's very encouraging is that we're seeing more cyclical areas of the market have accumulated, which we actually think is very bullish for the market.feedback

We think the market as a whole is setting up for what should be a strong fourth quarter, a sentiment-induced rally.feedback

We're not seeing the type of euphoria that you typically see at a major top in the market.feedback

If you look at the market like that, it's one of the most narrow readings in a decade. I think that speaks to the market rotations that are taking place. This is characteristic of a very healthy market. The S&P 500, there's not one sector really dragging us down.feedback

Our indicators are largely positive, and we accordingly recommend buying the S&P 500 into its 2,135-2,145 support range in anticipation of higher highs over the coming months.feedback

One argument that we've heard from the bears in recent months is, Oh, we've had this rally led by very defensive areas of the market.' Well I've got great news for you – this is no longer the case.feedback

We saw Microsoft break out a couple of years ago, we saw the semi stocks break out more recently. The question I always get is, What's next?feedback

We're watching if Cisco and Intel can follow the footsteps of Microsoft and become the next old tech stock to break through a decade-long base. We think [tech] is best positioned to be leadership over the coming years as it retraces the stark underperformance suffered between 2000 and 2002.feedback

This is not the characteristic of a major top in the market. After two years of very little movement, and we haven't been in a very wide trading range, we think the bull is getting started again.feedback

That sounds like what we do in a bull market. What that speaks to is that it's been a broad-based rally. Usually the rallies that are led by many stocks are ... the rallies that continue. We've had these indexes make new highs. We've had the advanced decline line make new highs.feedback

In fact, you're really having your most significant buy signal since oil started its decline back in June, and that buy signal was a key reversal last week.feedback

We think investors are going to have less incentive to rotate out of cyclicals.feedback

It would have been bearish if we closed below the open, but I don't think not making a high today means we won't make one going forward.feedback

The weaker banks just can't find a floor globally. We say if you want to sell, you want to sell the weak technical trends. Of course, we have fallen a lot in a short amount of time. You could make the case we're oversold and bouncing back a little bit there.feedback

It really does take time for a lot of these trends to reverse. For the meantime, that does keep the risk-off flavor of the market in vogue here for the next couple of months. The seasonals are very poor for the S&P, more so as you get later into the summer. ... What has been a market of mixed trends, now we're seeing some of the breakdowns pick up.feedback

[General Mills is] very similarly set up here as well with the breakout in March consolidating sideways. Stocks like these continue to work.feedback

We think [the consumer staples] continue to work. In general as long as rates are low, you're going to continue to have this premium placed on the higher-dividend stocks like consumer staples that act as a bond proxy. And we really aren't seeing much signs of rates turning up.feedback

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