Ari Wald - Oppenheimer Holdings


Last quote by Ari Wald

The 10 minus 2 US Treasury Yield curve has declined to its flattest level since 2007, and while a flatter curve is often viewed as a macroeconomic concern, we've found that equities have actually posted their strongest returns at comparable points over the last 40 years. Directionally higher rates should also be a tailwind for the S&P's bull cycle, in our view. In fact, how we measure it, the S&P 500 has averaged a 16.5 percent gain over the next 12 months based on the current level and direction going back 40 years of history. So to say that a flat curve is bad for stocks, … it's fake
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Nov 15 2017
The latest quote from Ari Wald is: “As sentiment starts to curl the other way, as expectations start to turn toward higher rates, we think the financial sector is in a terrific position to start to outperform again and break out to the upside.”. It comes from the One chart shows why financials may be set to surge article. You’ll find on this page 86 articles with Ari Wald quoted on topics such as S&P and Microsoft. Ari Wald has been quoted 117 times in 86 articles.
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Ari Wald quotes

Aug 08 2017 - Disney

We think any near term seasonal pullback of 1, 2, 3 percent should be met with buying interest, and we expect higher over the coming months – through the year

Aug 08 2017 - Bull market

I see a bull market. I think 10 up days ... that's consistent with what you see in a bull market. There's not a contrarian call to make here; this is a trend-following call. I think the key point is that this is an established uptrend, it's a healthy uptrend and we think it should

Aug 08 2017

Typically, rallies with a lot of stocks participating tend to be the rallies that continue; that's what we have

Aug 08 2017

I think it argues for additional outperformance as that line starts to kick higher. It has also been a very broad-based move; it's been the banks, it's been the brokers, asset managers, security

Aug 08 2017

This is very telling. It shows that the strong players have been reluctant to sell, the bad news is likely discounted … and we think this sector is poised to

Aug 01 2017

In general, we've been bullish on the defense industry for a number of years now, and Boeing, in particular, has ranked high in our momentum work since

Jul 25 2017

Weakness in the dollar and strength in equities is really the key inner market theme that's going on right now. The dollar is trading off the perceived changes in global monetary policy. In 2014, it was the divergent policy, a tighter Fed and an accommodative ECB causing a surge in the dollar, and that's really what caused a lot of destructions underneath the surface when commodities collapsed and [market] breadth really

Jul 24 2017

It has been a terrific leadership stock over the last 18 months, but it is still well below relative peak levels [measuring performance compared the S&P 500] from 2014, so still a lot of rotation potential

Jul 10 2017

EEM is in this narrowing range beginning to break higher versus

Jul 08 2017 - Tesla

He added that Tesla will likely continue working in the long-term – so long as the stock remains above that range. The stock was capped below that level from 2014 into 2016. We broke through that level this year. Now we are correcting back; typically the former breakout level becomes

Jul 07 2017

This is temporary, run-of-the-mill, healthy pullback following what was a terrific run for this

Jul 07 2017

Ultimately, we think the long-term trend does resume

Jun 20 2017

It's a trader's favorite and it should be a long-term investor's favorite, too. Nvidia scores very high in our momentum

Jun 20 2017

You can consider the near-term trading action is higher – and the trend is

Jun 20 2017

This weakness we're seeing is all within the trend. We're seeing this pullback against a rising 200-day moving average. We define that setup as a near-term opportunity to buy long-term

Jun 20 2017

The trend is still higher. That's the important

Jun 08 2017

We think this is a secular trend that continues for a while – technology

Jun 08 2017

I think it's early to make the case for a seasonal pullback; for the time being, I think the S&P continues to grind

Jun 08 2017 - Bull market

What we're seeing is very consistent with healthy bull market behavior. This resiliency in the market – being able to rally through overbought conditions and all these political and geopolitical events – it's really consistent with an upcycle that we think

Jun 06 2017 - Oil

We're hesitant to call it more than a summer rental given our view that the 10-year Treasury yield should swing higher later this year. We also continue to recommend patience with financials...due to weakness in the sector's relative

Jun 01 2017

Russell growth – tech-heavy – versus the Russell value, you can see Russell growth breaking out to the upside. This is the theme we think long-term investors should be keen

May 23 2017

It's been 'too far, too fast' for the last 200 percent of its

May 23 2017

We don't think the flatter curve is a warning. As long as banks can borrow short[-term debt] and lend long[-term debt], we think the economy can do just fine and the stock market can do just fine. In fact, the level and direction of the yield curve now looks a lot like it did in 1994 and it looks a lot like it did in 2004 – years where you still wanted to be invested in

May 17 2017

The fact that these stocks are doing well tells us nothing else about the rest of the market; the rest of the market is holding up fine, they're just not rallying as much. We are not seeing breakdowns anywhere else in the

May 17 2017

But we're going to see this very choppy trading maybe over the coming months, the coming quarter, even the coming years. And I think in the process, the energy sector is going to underperform versus a rising S&P 500, and that equities as a whole will do better than the energy

May 17 2017

We think the market continues to go higher, and this insider selling ratio is not something to be worried

May 09 2017

A near-term breakout above 2400 would measure 2480, by our analysis, and we see 2380 as near-term support. The key conflict is between late-cycle valuations versus early-to-mid-cycle market behavior. We side with how [the] market is acting and accordingly recommend a pro-cyclical portfolio

May 01 2017

We think the 200-day moving average is a terrific proxy for what the trend is doing and for the transports, our take is that the trend is still higher. Yes, they have underperformed. But no, they haven't broken any support levels that in our view would cause problems for the overall

Apr 25 2017

We're seeing some signs of it inflecting higher with the more recent turn in equity prices. And as it turns higher, and we think sets up for new highs, we think participation broadens in the market, and we think this helps lengthen the duration of the equity

Apr 25 2017

Late in the cycle, what will happen is that you'll see internal breadth start to narrow, fewer stocks start to move higher, and it masks weakness under the surface. So it might look like it's performing well but small-caps are beginning to break down. That's not happening. I think the overall market is quite vulnerable at this

Apr 20 2017

The near-term trading level I'm watching on the upside is 2380. If we can get above there, that would reverse the S&P 500 trend of lower highs since early March and indicate this near-term correction has run its course and the longer term advance is ready to resume. Within this consolidative market tape, that's a big segment of the market, 13 percent of the S&P 500 by market cap already at a new

Apr 20 2017

This is what we want to own, and it's breaking out to new highs

Apr 20 2017

What we've recommended is paying attention to this equity cycle but not playing the interest rate

Apr 20 2017

We have seen the index oscillate around the the 50-day at times. It can create some whipsaws. It is a widely watched level. That would be a near term win for the bulls if we were to close above the 50-day moving

Apr 18 2017 - Bull market

We think you have to use these market pullbacks to add to your exposure; we think the bull market is intact. The numbers speak for itself; we think this pullback is an opportunity to

Apr 18 2017

That's really limited gold over the last few

Apr 11 2017

Here's a stock that this is coming out of a two-year base, and its breakout at $20 is now

Apr 11 2017 - Uber

Over the last 10 years it's been rewarding to rotate into the US after similar bouts of Europe outperformance. We've found it is very rare for Europe to outperform in a falling S&P 500 absolute tape. So generally, a bet on Europe is a bet, really, on U.S. and global equities as a whole. I think this is really the uber-bullish scenario people aren't talking about: Europe continues to lead the way, S&P 500 is going much higher with it. Just from a risk/reward basis, we do have some preference for the S&P

Apr 10 2017 - Tesla

And argues for additional gains over the coming

Mar 24 2017

This time around, we have this index breaking out to new highs, so you haven't seen the same type of weakness in these

Mar 24 2017

What's interesting is that the performance of the stocks with the most buybacks did indeed peak ahead [of a broader market peak in October]. So in the past, it has been a good warning

Mar 24 2017

I think the key here is being patient, and I think it just needs some time. I think you want to see it carve out that base, but come second half of the year, we do think financials should continue to do well. So a little bit more neutral, near

Mar 21 2017 - UBS

If you were to break below 2.3 percent, I would worry. I generally view that the direction is equally important as the

Mar 16 2017

First off, we're bullish on the stock market in general, so step one, the question we have to ask ourselves is, what sector do we want to own? Answer: We think technology. Bit of a rotation idea here. [There was a] prior period of underperformance, beginning to shift higher, reverse higher, and I think this is playing the rotation game here within this leading

Mar 10 2017 - Bull market

What we're seeing is a characteristic of a very healthy bull

Mar 10 2017 - Oil

In fact, I think for the long run this could be quite positive. Overall, stocks ex-those tied to oil prices, should continue to do well as long as oil prices are low and stable, and avoid a steep

Mar 10 2017

It's building momentum, and the trend's improving. On that breakout, we see upside to $

Mar 06 2017

So this is a sign of a healthy sector; rallies led by many stocks are usually rallies that

Mar 02 2017

We came into the year with a 2017 target of 2500 for the S&P 500, and we think this is still likely to

Mar 01 2017

We see the case to buy Russia in ruble terms; unfortunately U.S. investors don't have that option, so we recommend staying away. So at best, we see this as a base; at worst, we see this as a resumption of that longer-term downtrend. Added up, risk-reward is very poor here. We recommend staying

Mar 01 2017

We recommend staying away from the traditional retailers; we think they continue to underperform, examining a chart of the XRT relative to the S&P 500 over the last

Feb 24 2017

But I think if you're in it, you let it ride, and if you do get a pullback, you want to buy it. We like tech for the

Feb 21 2017

I think you want to own the smaller to mid-cap stocks in the group, which are actually showing some more relative strength here, pointing to a chart of the XBI. So for upside, we think XBI gets back to $80. That'll take the ETF more or less near where it started to break down back at peak levels around 2015, very strong setup

Feb 14 2017

The charts are bullish. They argue for a sustainable breakout here, and that the stock should be bought. The first thing you'll note is that it has a rising 200-day moving average. So that's indicative of the stock's bullish trend that it's possessed for a couple of months

Feb 14 2017

Another reason why we think it goes higher is just the similarities to how this stock traded back in the second half of 2013, into 2014; that after a year of decline, you can see in that prior period, that the 200-day started to push higher, pull back to that 200-day, great buying opportunities, and then that final inflection which really marked the sustainable turn. We're seeing very similar price

Feb 01 2017

There [are] some differences in the construction of these

Feb 01 2017

That's resistance; hasn't been able to push through, does suggest we are due for some sort of a pause to refresh the trend, adding

Jan 25 2017 - Bull market

Our take is that the longer-term bull market is continuing. After spending six weeks consolidating sideways, which is often the case in a strong bull market, you see more time corrections than a correction through price. Presidents can magnify and potentially dampen the equity cycle and performance in some sectors and industries. But for the most part, I don't think that's going to be the key determinant. My take is any sort of bad news in that sector is probably already priced in. It's still a group that is down 26 percent from where it peaked back in

Jan 25 2017 - Bull market

I don't think there's much significance about these round numbers. Surely they're psychological. It's closely watched. Our take is we're going to get there whether it happens today, tomorrow or next week. It's probably not very important. Looking through 2017, I think we go well beyond it. I think the market could be up 10 percent this year. Today is possibly signaling a resumption of the longer term bull market that we think is still in

Jan 13 2017 - Microsoft

We constantly preach that rather than market timing, you always want to consistently buy the sectors and stocks with the best relative trends, and we think tech has the best relative trends in the market right

Jan 12 2017

We recommend holders of the yellow metal look to take profits

Jan 05 2017

So the trend is a tailwind here. I think it's most likely to be a sluggish grind

Jan 05 2017

It's more recently completed a yearlong bottoming formation and, in the charts, we can see it's got a rising 200-day moving average as

Dec 27 2016

Since 1928, the S&P [500] has been higher in 68 out of 88

Dec 27 2016

We're right there. It looks like we're a rounding error

Dec 27 2016

It's strong but not too strong. That's your Goldilocks scenario. The turn in the sentiment and mood of the market between the first quarter and now is truly

Dec 27 2016

There's no sign of a meaningful top in place. It's come with the right leadership, improving credit spreads, interest rates moving in the right direction. It's also the underlying factors that characterizes a continuation of a trend rather than a

Dec 16 2016

This is a horrendous idea. This is a strategy based solely on predicting what the weather is going to

Dec 16 2016

The factors that have pressured it have indeed been the stronger dollar, and I think gold is selling off as a safe-haven asset as well, with the market embracing more risk, and I think that can

Dec 16 2016

After that spike, gold ultimately settled back into its base and it really required another two years of basing until it really started to break higher again. We think we're in a similar basing period, where it's probably, at best, dead money here, even if it is coming into some sort of support. That prior low at $1,045 I think is the important level

Dec 05 2016 - Cisco

Historically speaking, the numbers argue for more gains for the Dow Jones industrial

Nov 29 2016

Yes, we are near-term overbought. But not to miss the forest for the trees, we do think the longer-term trend here is bullish for the S&P

Nov 29 2016

The charts are telling us that higher valuations are justified, and a repricing is needed for the

Nov 28 2016

From a trading basis, we think the EEM rallies towards $40 over the coming

Nov 25 2016

We're near-term overbought. There could be some consolidation, but we're breaking higher and we're breaking higher with the right leadership and in the right

Nov 23 2016

We recommend Overweight exposure to the Technology sector, and see AAPL as a tactical idea that hasn't run up as much as the rest of the sector. The stock has largely underperformed since peaking in May 2015, now seeing signs of a reversal that bears resemblance to the reversal in shares in

Nov 23 2016

This is very classic bull-market behavior. When the Fed starts to tighten interest rates, you have your mid-cycle correction – that's what we've had over the last year, the very wide gyrations – and now we're breaking out to the

Nov 23 2016

Risk is coming back to the market after really, how we see it, a two-year decline favoring risk-off trades. So we think the bull market's

Nov 22 2016

You do tend to see the pace of advance moderate a bit when the Fed raises

Nov 10 2016

I think there is indeed strength in the charts here, we're seeing it in today's breakout move, and I think it is signaling that overall economic growth is ticking higher

Nov 07 2016

Investors are selling safety stocks, selling interest rates sensitive, and buying banks and

Oct 25 2016

We don't see that toppy activity at all; we want to be exposed to equities right

Oct 25 2016

We see, actually, very healthy bull-market-type activity underneath the surface, so I wouldn't be worried about the elevated levels of M&A

Oct 25 2016

We think that it's setting up a new leg of outperformance in the direction that [Alphabet] has already established long-term

Oct 25 2016 - Chipotle

I would be staying away from this one; I don't think the trend has come around enough. The stock has been beaten up, and we are indeed seeing some signs of stabilization at this $400 level; this is a very important

Oct 25 2016 - Chipotle

We'd rather, if you get a pop, to sell it, rather than if you get a drop, to buy

Oct 20 2016 - AT&T

But now we're seeing some profit-taking in those groups. What's very encouraging is that we're seeing more cyclical areas of the market have accumulated, which we actually think is very bullish for the

Oct 03 2016

We think the market as a whole is setting up for what should be a strong fourth quarter, a sentiment-induced

Sep 27 2016

We're not seeing the type of euphoria that you typically see at a major top in the

Sep 08 2016

If you look at the market like that, it's one of the most narrow readings in a decade. I think that speaks to the market rotations that are taking place. This is characteristic of a very healthy market. The S&P 500, there's not one sector really dragging us

Aug 31 2016

Our indicators are largely positive, and we accordingly recommend buying the S&P 500 into its 2,135-2,145 support range in anticipation of higher highs over the coming

Aug 31 2016

One argument that we've heard from the bears in recent months is, Oh, we've had this rally led by very defensive areas of the market.' Well I've got great news for you – this is no longer the

Aug 16 2016 - Microsoft

We saw Microsoft break out a couple of years ago, we saw the semi stocks break out more recently. The question I always get is, What's next?feedback

Aug 16 2016 - Microsoft

We're watching if Cisco and Intel can follow the footsteps of Microsoft and become the next old tech stock to break through a decade-long base. We think [tech] is best positioned to be leadership over the coming years as it retraces the stark underperformance suffered between 2000 and

Aug 12 2016 - UBS

This is not the characteristic of a major top in the market. After two years of very little movement, and we haven't been in a very wide trading range, we think the bull is getting started

Aug 11 2016 - Bull market

That sounds like what we do in a bull market. What that speaks to is that it's been a broad-based rally. Usually the rallies that are led by many stocks are ... the rallies that continue. We've had these indexes make new highs. We've had the advanced decline line make new

Aug 09 2016

In fact, you're really having your most significant buy signal since oil started its decline back in June, and that buy signal was a key reversal last

Aug 02 2016

We think investors are going to have less incentive to rotate out of

Jul 08 2016

It would have been bearish if we closed below the open, but I don't think not making a high today means we won't make one going

Jun 28 2016

The weaker banks just can't find a floor globally. We say if you want to sell, you want to sell the weak technical trends. Of course, we have fallen a lot in a short amount of time. You could make the case we're oversold and bouncing back a little bit

Jun 28 2016

It really does take time for a lot of these trends to reverse. For the meantime, that does keep the risk-off flavor of the market in vogue here for the next couple of months. The seasonals are very poor for the S&P, more so as you get later into the summer. ... What has been a market of mixed trends, now we're seeing some of the breakdowns pick

Jun 10 2016

[General Mills is] very similarly set up here as well with the breakout in March consolidating sideways. Stocks like these continue to

Jun 10 2016

We think [the consumer staples] continue to work. In general as long as rates are low, you're going to continue to have this premium placed on the higher-dividend stocks like consumer staples that act as a bond proxy. And we really aren't seeing much signs of rates turning

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