Bob Doll - Nuveen Asset Management

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Last quote by Bob Doll

We're due at any point for a fiver. We're almost half way there in one day. Don't watch the president when it comes to tax reform, watch the Congress. The question is can the Congressional Republicans cobble something together, and I think they can. I think it's a minor story for the markets... If you paid attention only to Washington DC, you'd say why is the market not significantly lower than it is now. If you paid attention to earnings, you'd say why isn't the market higher than it is now.feedback
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May 18 2017 Trump Presidency
Bob Doll has been quoted 50 times. The one recent article where Bob Doll has been quoted is Stocks would have made 'significant' new highs if not for Trump controversy, Bob Doll says. Most recently, Bob Doll was quoted as having said, “I think we've taken some of the upside away. but the probability of [a tax plan] in the last 48 hours has gone down. If I had a choice of tax reform or good earnings, I'd take good earnings...Tax reform is icing on the cake, but it's not the cake. The volatility has been very low and pullbacks have been very slight, so when you get a 2 percent pullback form an all-time high, people think there's a financial crisis somewhere. I'd be shocked if we turned around and [right] went back up to new highs. I think it's going to be sloppy for a while.”.
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Bob Doll quotes

Last week, [President Donald] Trump speaks Tuesday night, market's up 300 [basis points] on Wednesday. And the Thursday headlines say, Trump rallies the market.' No, no, no, no – the global PMI was at least 200 of those 300 points, in my view. The Fed's turning neutral and then negative for the stock market. I think it means that the easy gains are in the rearview mirror. There are other things like earnings pushing the market higher, but we no longer have the Fed in our court in my view.feedback

Don't give up on the financials. They're up a bunch. Better economy, higher interest rates, less regulation – nobody benefits more than the financials from that. When we're really bullish, Bank [of] America and Citi. When we're a little more cautious, JPMorgan and Wells [Fargo].feedback

He's quickly going to change the subject to the Supreme Court nominee, so I think the noise will move from the immigration thing to the Supreme Court thing. It'll fade when we have something new to talk about. Too many people thought we had a Republican president, a Republican House, Republican Senate and they were going to all get along peachy keen … but it's going to be bumpy, because they're not all going to see the ball the same way. I think it's going to be inconsistent, and it will come back to is the economy OK and are earnings OK? If they are, the market will be OK.feedback

Wall Street love[s] the idea that we have a pro-growth president, but we had a press conference, we had an inaugural address, and he really didn't talk about those issues, and I think that's caused a little bit of a sag. I think the market's saying, I made a list: trade deals, tax cuts, tax reform, repatriation, Obamacare, Supreme Court, immigration, ISIS, fight the press, infrastructure. What are your three most important ones? What are you going tackle first? You can't do them all.feedback

We need the excess to show up for somebody to stomp on it, usually the Fed, and that's not in sight. Financials started doing better on Brexit Monday, accelerated post the election, and while maybe a little ahead of themselves in the short term, I assume they're going to do well this year. Stocks that look like bonds did phenomenally well during the stagnant growth period. Utilities, a perfect example. Some of the telecom names, some of the consumer staples. They're not cheap to begin with. [And] there's more underperformance to come.feedback

Volume is pretty weak, so there's no aggressive selling taking place. It's more sellers locking in some better gains than they thought they were going to get this year. It's been a really good year, so letting a little go is just fine.feedback

We're completing the seventh year in a row where the U.S. has led, so it won't happen forever, but I think the signs are still there, at least early in the year.feedback

I think as long as the U.S. growth expectations move higher, as long as the dollar is moving higher, this says the U.S. is where it's happening. Stronger growth differential, the interest rate differential, I think this points to further strength in the U.S. versus the rest of the world.feedback

We're nowhere near that. We may be moving from cautiousness to optimism, but euphoria's down the line somewhere. If people feel better about life, no matter what policy is, they spend a little more money. The question is, is the confidence coming back so fast that no matter what happens, the markets can't deliver, the economy can't deliver? We'll see.feedback

We've spent this entire bull market with nobody believing it. The caution, the concern, The next downturn's going to kill me,' and now we're beginning to have people feel a little bit better. That's always a good sign, and bull markets don't end until you get that euphoria.feedback

It's fair to say that we may have had some influence.feedback

We've had a long-term bull market in bonds, as interest rates have gone from double digits to 1.37 percent. That's a 35-year tailwind which I think is now turning into headwind.feedback

All of that has caused interest rates to move up about 100 basis points, but probably heading higher.feedback

Seeking yield has been a wonderful activity for years and it's beginning to backfire. I think that we're going to have to move to an environment where we take what we need from the total return of the portfolio.feedback

It's always a weird time when you change administrations from one party to the other. it's also weird because of who we elected – a nonpolitician who was all over the place during the campaign so uncertainty is still there.feedback

We don't know what policies are going to pass or how long it will take to enact them, or how good they will be.feedback

We're probably heading into a period where bonds go down and stocks are up – not tons, because the P/E rate is not going to go up if interest rates are going up.feedback

I'm not convinced it's a one-way street. We'll get some of those days. Under the surface, the trend has changed. Whatever you thought about stocks before the election, you have to like them a little more, and whatever you think about bonds, you have to like them a little less.feedback

The market was saying we like certainty, and we don't like uncertainty and Donald Trump is more uncertainty than Clinton. There are going to be more good things and more bad things and we're going to see what happens. Underneath a lot of this, the economy is dong a little better and we can't lose sight of that.feedback

The main thing is we just don't know. There will be a lot of trial balloons. For the market to have a serious problem, it's going to have to be convinced the protectionist Donald Trump is showing up more than the growth Donald Trump. We elected both Donald Trumps, but I think the growth one is going to win out.feedback

For the last few years, the search for yield, perceived safety and low volatility has been an investor's dream, and billions and billions and billions have gone into those things. That is over and done and it's unwinding. That is because the economy is doing better and inflation is picking up a bit.feedback

With seasonality, more likely it's going to be higher than where we are. I hesitate because we've run so hard for the last couple of weeks. Maybe we take a breath and then we come on with a year-end rally. I don't know. But I can't believe it would (go) straight up to the end of the year.feedback

Did we elect Donald Trump the tax-cutter and the pro-growth president or did we elect Donald Trump the protectionist with some tariffs, which is a tax increase?feedback

Did they get overdone on upside? Absolutely, they may fall back some more, but think you have to like banks generally more today than you did two weeks ago.feedback

It looks like we've got a shot, not a given, but a shot, at more growth and more inflation, more nominal GDP, and that's a beautiful thing for the banks, the shape of the yield curve.feedback

We might not have the best trade deals in the world. But we have benefited from every trade deal that's been signed.feedback

The market isn't saying, I like Hillary and I don't like Donald.' It's saying, I like certainty. I don't like uncertainty,' and with Hillary Clinton there's a little more understanding.feedback

Markets are oscillating. That will continue. But we're frustrating the bulls and the bears. Got to own the right stocks and avoid the bad ones.feedback

The other reason is he's been very clear he's going to start a trade war with China, Mexico and a few other places, and we all know trade wars are not good for economic growth and, therefore, they're not good for markets.feedback

I thought I was a traditional Republican conservative.feedback

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