Boris Schlossberg

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Last quote by Boris Schlossberg

Typically, when you have that kind of concentration of positive days, mean reversion is about to kick in. So I think it could be a situation where 'sell in May' could be the best prescription for the Nasdaq. There's no doubt that, fundamentally, all the tech companies have certainly come to the forefront. They are now the dominant companies in American industry – but that story has been really well told. I think profit-taking is due here, and I would be very cautious at trying to get long here at these levels.feedback
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May 25 2017
Boris Schlossberg has been quoted 132 times. The one recent article where Boris Schlossberg has been quoted is Bitcoin bonanza and Dollar Tree earnings: Here's what could drive markets Thursday. Most recently, Boris Schlossberg was quoted as having said, “I'm going to be watching that very carefully to see how it trades over the next day or two. As a matter of fact, it's one of those retailers that is actually expanding its store base, and I'm going to be watching not only their earnings to see how well they've done this quarter, but to see if they're really going to increase their store base over the next coming quarters.”.
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Boris Schlossberg quotes

It's kind of like when retail companies stop talking about the weather – it suggests that maybe they're just simply focusing on the nuts and bolts of their businesses.feedback

If we have another month of negative inflation data, that's going to make the assumptions of three rate hikes very problematic. Volatility is supposed to be mean-reverting, and if that's the case, we may be in serious trouble.feedback

If the VIX starts to go really high, that means equities are going to be in trouble.feedback

It seems like everybody is just ignoring the very tepid, very, very lackluster economic data.feedback

It's not a good sign to be the biggest in the S&P. It means you've pretty much reached your apex as far as growth potential.feedback

If we don't get any delivery by summertime, I think you're going to see a massive disappointment and a move back because the underlying economy is nowhere near the level the market is; the underlying economy is just chugging along at a subpar pace and you really need that whole push from the administration to make the market go up. If he doesn't get anything done, I think you're going to see a massive sell-off.feedback

Any kind of serious contention that Le Pen wins or, the worst-case scenario, if we have Melenchon and Le Pen – the far right, far left – the only choice for France, could take the euro down to parity very quickly. The key question is can they really hold it together at this point. Can the union come together and create a more viable economic society for the rest of the European Union at this point. It's not so much even that [Le Pen] may win, it's a question of how big that whole populist vote is and how much discontent there is in the euro zone.feedback

All economic data is irrelevant. If [the Trump administration] can't get those two things done in the summertime, then I think a huge part of the 'Trump rally' just simply dies on the vine.feedback

I think that's a very, very serious sign suggesting that risk-off is really starting to permeate through the markets because in my opinion, yen always leads the markets in terms of risk-off sentiment. We've had a big disconnect between what the currencies have been saying and what the equities have been saying, and I think now we're reaching a breaking point where the currencies are really signaling that equities need to come in and correct.feedback

As a flight to safety into U.S. Treasurys comes in and yields continue to compress, gold becomes a lot more attractive. I do think with the Trump administration and with the militarization that's going on right now, the risk is very high, so gold does have the chance to go further.feedback

Across the whole Western world, the economies are doing OK, but we're just not seeing that translate into more income for individual people. And that's why final demand is very tepid.feedback

We're not seeing great sentiment one way or another, but bursts of enthusiasm this morning definitely got squelched by the comments and economic data. A lot of the air went out of the balloon today because we didn't get quite the positive data set that we wanted and we're still getting relatively cautious commentary from the Fed.feedback

We've had a massive move in equities over the last couple of months without any type of a correction. And the stall in commodities suggests to me that there's probably going to be a correction in equities. It's not necessarily the end of the bull market, but a 5, 10 percent move to the downside, which is being presaged by the fact that all of these commodities are really not moving up, is a very, very interesting possibility.feedback

Dollar bulls are stuck in a quagmire. The dollar's in this sort of no man's land. If the price action is not confirming the fundamentals, you always trust the price action, because there's something bigger the market is seeing that everyone else is missing.feedback

I think gold is in a secular bear market, and it's a sell-the-rally trap.feedback

I think the Fed is on a path to hike rates three times this year. They've been very, very consistent about that. And if that's the path, gold goes down.feedback

I've got to bet at this point she's not going to win. I think there's a huge amount of fear that's already been priced into the trade. And I like the European stocks even more than I like the euro itself. The euro has, maybe, perhaps other factors behind it. I would be much more favorable towards going long European stocks. That could put the whole European experiment very much under risk.feedback

The fact that they have high dividends and high valuation puts them in the danger zone for me.feedback

Ironically enough, I actually think that all of this focus on the Trump-Putin ties makes it far less likely simply to have a thaw in ties, and therefore the sanctions and all the other political ramifications that surround Russia really put a huge question mark as to whether the rally can continue.feedback

They're getting decimated by tech, and today's announcement from Target was to me especially disappointing because Target is basically hanging all of their strategy on price competition, and going down-market on lower price, and I think that's going to destroy them because Amazon will kill them on lower price anytime, anywhere. In fact, I think the only thing that works in retail right now is improving experience; ironically enough maybe taking a page from Amazon to create an experience where you never see a cashier, where it's just friction-free shopping.feedback

The market is not buying what Janet Yellen is saying. And that is actually a very, very telling sign. When the Fed chief says, pretty much unabashedly, that she's going to go to three rate hikes, and she sort of talks up the economy, and yet the market remains skeptical, that's telling me something. That tells me that both markets remain skeptical about the continuity of this potential growth as we go forward.feedback

It's definitely top heavy. I'm of two minds of tech.feedback

None of those policy initiatives have been enacted; it's been much more toward protectionism and toward anti-terrorism. And the market, I think, is losing patience, and that is why you're seeing the whole Trump portfolio basket trade move off. Now, if he reasserts his economic policy and if he comes back to those ideas quickly, those trades are going to come right back. But if he again wallows in much more political issues as we go forward, I think you're going to see much more of a correction than you currently have seen.feedback

I think oil is in a very dangerous zone now precisely because demand is not there. The irony of this whole thing is that OPEC cuts are holding, but the demand is not there. And the longer oil wallows at this $52 level, the more likely it's actually going to go to the downside. And if it trips to $50 a barrel stops, I think it could really tumble very quickly. So I think we're in a perilous territory.feedback

A break of 112.00 yen to the downside in dollar/yen...would signal a more significant correction of the dollar rally, indicating that the greenback is no longer a sure way bet to rise this year.feedback

The problem is that if you engage in protectionist policies, it's very likely going to raise prices for the American consumer.feedback

Yes, Amazon is doing a lot of volume for them, but the rest of the economy may not be producing as much as everybody thinks. And that could be a tell that growth going forward – the expectations for growth going forward – need to be tempered, and that could be an interesting early warning sign for investors. Right now I'm taking the warning sign seriously.feedback

I think he's serious about spending. He's not a guy who does not like to spend, if you know anything about Donald Trump, so he's going to try to make all sorts of spending on infrastructure, it's a real possibility … that's, I think, a cornerstone of his platform. He really believes it. So one of the more interesting trades here is actually on the other side of the border.feedback

I think that the trade is, buy near-term, but sell intermediate term, because it's definitely going to run out of juice going forward.feedback

Markets have clearly been taken aback by his confrontational style of politics and unless the U.S. economy shows some rapid improvements in growth, the enthusiasm that accompanied Mr. Trump into the office will quickly turn into fear as investors begin to consider the costs of his protectionist policies and bare knuckles style of governing.feedback

There's definitely some sort of a storm coming. I don't know if it's going to be mild, or more severe, but it's almost impossible for me to believe that we're just going to have this very, very calm, pretty natural calm for much longer. Something's going to trip the markets and they're going to get corrected.feedback

I think it's a long-term good hold at this point, so you have to scale and buy as you go.feedback

You may see the dollar reverse quite a lot if the press conference disappoints. Right now the market is pricing in a lot of positives.feedback

If he gets quagmired in politics, I think a lot of the Trump trade is going to unwind very quickly. If, however, his laser focus is on economic reform, these Trump trades are going to pick up steam once again. So it's very much going to be up to him as to whether the Trump trade continues or not over the next month or two.feedback

I think the only number that really matters is the 3 percent number, but it's the 3 percent of wage growth. If we see wage growth of 3 percent or better this year, then all other numbers are going to come in line.feedback

I would be much more likely to want to buy the pullback than try to chase this rally. I think there's very, very limited upside here in this rally.feedback

I would definitely be buying the pullbacks, because I think it's certainly, definitely bottomed out, but I don't see too much potential to the upside.feedback

The market is betting on a very broad-based increase in growth and if his policy mix actually ends up in a lumpy distribution of growth, it's not going to be positive. It's difficult to predict because you don't know what Trump will do. He is very unpredictable. He's inheriting a very strong economy, and he's got a lot of wind at his back. It's just a question of how he's going to manage it.feedback

This is the only economic number you should be watching for the next three months. If wage growth isn't there, the Fed stays still. Mark my words.feedback

I think it was actually surprising to see [Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's] rhetoric, which was much more hawkish than the reality on the Street. And the reason why is because the only factor that matters ... is wage growth.feedback

And wage growth is still not there, retail spending is still not there. Now, [if] those two things start to go up, then yes, we're all on board for further rate hikes. But if we don't see that improving, I think we're dead and done.feedback

There's going to be so many people who are just going to want to make sure to mark up inventory before the year-end to make sure they are participating in this rally.feedback

I think [Johnson] has a chance to eke over the line, and the reason why is I think the Fed is going to be a lot more dovish than the market thinks, and that's going to give that extra fuel to the market.feedback

They don't want to see this 'melt up' in rates so far so fast and this massive move in the dollar, as well, because it is going to start to impact profits in [the first quarter] if the story just continues unabated.feedback

It's at this point the kind of situation where we are so used to every single day being a drama day that in fact, it actually makes the drama much less potent at this point. So I think unless the Chinese do come back at us, at this point I think things are relatively OK; nobody is taking it too seriously, and that's really what the market is communicating.feedback

I think it's a relatively correct level of fear because the macro backdrop is actually very, very favorable. Economically, everything seems to be in expansionary mode.feedback

The market has gotten way ahead of itself. And I think it's going to be the Fed that is going to put the brakes on this whole notion.feedback

It probably very much will – but the bottom-line question is, Is there so much demand for oil to let's say, go to $60, $70 a barrel?' And I think that's very dubious. He said global gasoline demand has peaked and is heading downward.feedback

So I think the whole energy complex is going to be facing more problems than the market admits, and that's why I'm a little bit cautious on the whole sector.feedback

The blatant lie without any proof - and one that has been roundly challenged by all of the country's voting experts - was unprecedented in American politics and may have made some market traders doubt Mr. Trump's stability.feedback

It's just all positive U.S data creating a huge amount of stop running in the currency market. it took out a very big level in dollar/yen.feedback

That means there is a seminal tectonic massive shift here, and I think the banks are going to be a 'buy-the-dip' buy for quite a long time.feedback

Also, whenever somebody says to me something is at a 30-year overbought condition, my first instinct is not to fade the move, but actually buy the dip because that means we are in a breakout territory.feedback

We've been talking ad infinitum about the fact of the steepening yield curve, and now we're starting to see that happen.feedback

It's a risk trade, it's an infrastructure trade, and if President-elect Trump goes through with this infrastructure proposals, you're going to see copper go even higher.feedback

[Trump] couldn't care less about profit. He only cares about sales at this point. If he goes across the aisle and works with Bernie Sanders, his approval rating is going to go into the 80s.feedback

I think bonds die. Dollar rallies. Stocks rally. Trump is the master destroyer of credit, and I have to think you have to bet on that.feedback

There's just three scenarios. If Clinton wins, a huge part of it is getting priced in. It's the anticlimactic trade. That's the conventional scenario – or Trump wins, or we have a contested election.feedback

A contestable election with no clear outcome that could (create a) quagmire the markets for months-worth of uncertainty. The dollar gets very badly hurt, but more importantly it becomes a very volatile market driven by every possible headline. I think it creates destruction in both assets and investor psychology.feedback

Scenario two is Trump wins. All bets are off. Dollar/Swiss sells off. Dollar/yen goes down to 100. Both the Swiss National Bank and Prime Minister Abe's spokesman said they would be watching the markets carefully. Both of them understand there could be a rush out of the dollar if Trump wins.feedback

If they call Florida and Michigan for her, the dollar's going to have an uninterrupted rally. But if there's no call for Michigan and no calls for Florida by 10 p.m., we're going to have a volatile night.feedback

Around 11:15 a.m. the whole pro-Clinton trade in FX started to move in concert - Mexican peso, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen all went to session highs or session lows - and that's mainly because Votecastr released projections that Florida was trending (Clinton's) way, which is really the only thing that matters.feedback

Even though Votecastr is projecting Pennsylvania going early to (Trump) it wouldn't matter. Florida has always been the main pivot in this election and the fact that she's trending strongly so far is really what it all comes down to.feedback

Dollar/peso will be the absolute proxy for the election, and if we see massive moves in dollar/peso by around 8 o'clock in the evening, it will mean the exit polls are strongly indicating she has a wrap on it.feedback

I think you're probably going to see much better performance out of Europe than you will out of the U.S., primarily because of the stronger dollar.feedback

Maybe companies are simply seeing the last possible time where they can have cheap financing going forward.feedback

I think it's interesting that [Alphabet] could become just as much of a hardware company as it is a software company, if they can succeed in this whole new arena of artificial intelligence.feedback

I think it's a good buy; you know, one of the best ways to make money in the market is to buy great companies when they stumble, and it appears that Chipotle has gotten a handle on all of its health problems, and now, at this point, really seems to be seeing a resurgence.feedback

I think gold will be one of the most active, reactionary instruments to a Trump win, because that will create a massive amount of volatility, a massive amount of uncertainty in global markets and in geopolitical terms.feedback

So there are clearly some warning signs out there that I think something is slowing down, whether it just simply pauses and refreshes, or really we're going to start to fall off a cliff; I think is too early to tell.feedback

When you think of it from a global macro perspective, we are starting to see some serious cracks in global growth.feedback

This is really a lottery ticket trade. You don't know which of them could bounce.feedback

The problem with that idea is that you just don't know which one of them will begin to go back up on a trajectory.feedback

In electronic markets, human traders always forget just how much magnitude and speed happens when computers are involved, and we always underestimate the power of the move.feedback

Once we see that rate hike, yields are definitely going to start moving in the right direction, so I agree completely that this is a turn in yields and it's not going away.feedback

So I can't really draw any ominous conclusions out of this whole thing.feedback

It's just been a major, major migration away from what, you could almost say 'dumb money,' which is individual stock ownership into much more systematized ETF money, and that's actually exposed many more households to probably a better way of investing into a more diversified portfolio.feedback

The dollar and oil are moving lock and step, and I think the other reason for why that's happening is because it's sort of a boom trade.feedback

It's a bet on the fact that the global economy is actually not slowing down as much as everybody thought.feedback

But frankly, I think a lot of that trade has already been priced in.feedback

Since Australia pretty much supports all of the commodity product to China, it's going to create a very big backlash onto them.feedback

It's going to become a factor for financial markets.feedback

It depends on the intensity of the win or loss. I actually think they're going to fight to a standstill. ? If he trips up badly, the dollar would rally. That would give the market something more certain. If she trips up badly, I think the dollar could really take a hit.feedback

The peso has been beaten down like a pinata ever since he's started showing some strength. The peso has been the primary expression of emerging markets nervousness about Trump coming to power.feedback

The Bank of Japan effectively admitted the error of their ways by saying that their attempt at negative interest rates and standard quantitative easing was not working.feedback

The whole game has kind of turned into what I call 'Pokemon shopping,' where everybody is looking for discount shopping.feedback

Yes, I think we see further upside to the Apple, but right now I would be cautious about chasing the highs at this point. I would want to wait to see it retrace maybe 2 or 3 percent to the downside before establishing a position.feedback

I think it's just run away for the near term at this point.feedback

Despite the relatively weak economic (data) that we've had this month, the market decided that it appears central bank officials are no longer enamored with (ultra-low) interest rate policy; they really want to normalize rate policy sooner rather than later.feedback

Overall, if you believe that growth continues, it's all systems go for Berkshire for the time being.feedback

She needs to really reaffirm for the market that they are very seriously moving toward a rate hike in December; otherwise I think they stand a very, very strong chance of just losing all credibility, because the rhetoric out of all the other Fed officials has been relatively hawkish.feedback

Russia, still, like John McCain said, is basically a gas station masquerading as a country.feedback

I think $50 (a barrel oil) is going to be a cap here. I think the Saudis are going to come flood the market, I think the frackers are going to come flood the market, so I don't see too much upside.feedback

In this case, if the stocks continue to run, you still make a little bit of money. If it doesn't, if it does come in, at least you've gotten a better average price. You've bought the retrace.feedback

The euro is kind of range bound, and the yen is a huge problem for everything because it continues to strengthen. The Japanese have run out of ideas and options.feedback

It's monetary policymakers that are driving the dollar. I think there's a very slow but discernible shift by fiscal policymakers to finally take control of the economy. This whole idea of austerity is dying a slow death.feedback

The market is just not excited about anything going on. The belief is even if the Fed wanted to do something, the rest of the world is moving the other way. They don't really want to tip the scales in terms of tightening. I don't think they think the global economy is strong enough to take a hit.feedback

I think if this election is bringing anything to the forefront, it's the idea that it's time for fiscal officials to take control of the economy.feedback

Exchange rates continue to wreak havoc with Japanese exporters' efforts, and given the recent appreciation of the yen the problem will not improve in the near future.feedback

The pair has unwound most of the gains of the prior three weeks. Japanese authorities may be forced to once again consider intervention, although prior episodes have proved futile.feedback

Buy them you must because until the interest rate posture changes I really think all of these things can easily outperform.feedback

In order for financials to really create a sustainable rally, we need to have a much more steeper yield curve.feedback

For the last five quarters year on year, earnings have been down. But on the technical side, we're at record highs. History shows that record highs have tended to precede yet loftier levels in the months ahead.feedback

If we can break above $1,300, we could have a new rally in gold, because the market is going to essentially assume that the Fed will stay stationary until December.feedback

The ultimate crash scenario is England pulls out and everybody looks around and says: 'They managed to survive. Why do we need this?' and then they all decide to pull the strings apart and that creates a lot of volatility.feedback

London is the financial capital of the world. Unknown is how much an ability there will be for London to be the conduit of all financial transactions in the world. Brexit really punches above its weight. It's not just Europe, not just the U.K. but the whole global financial system.feedback

Brexit would present the first formal challenge to the current global economic order and could spark a much wider and more dangerous fracture of the European Union.feedback

It is a bounce based on the commodities bounce. The key question is: How do you view commodities right now?feedback

This whole commodities rally could have more legs going forward, and that could keep those stocks up.feedback

This is the absolute right time for them to do a rate hike in June before the general election starts, before you have turmoil in the markets.feedback

Would it help financial stocks right now? Absolutely. Is it going to steep the curve for a bit? Absolutely. But I don't think long-term secular move by the Fed, by any means, this is just a one and done move to satisfy the markets.feedback

Usually the yen is up when equities are down. So, we had a decoupling of that and now it's just a momentum trade.feedback

It's been difficult to interpret this. They don't want a huge move all at once. They want to keep the markets guessing. The mixed message is the new transparency.feedback

The dollar move is the unwind of the trade the other way. We had a huge move in commodities that hurt the dollar. Part of this is that adding a little bit of fuel to the fire.feedback

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