Boris Schlossberg


Last quote by Boris Schlossberg

Any kind of serious contention that Le Pen wins or, the worst-case scenario, if we have Melenchon and Le Pen – the far right, far left – the only choice for France, could take the euro down to parity very quickly. The key question is can they really hold it together at this point. Can the union come together and create a more viable economic society for the rest of the European Union at this point. It's not so much even that [Le Pen] may win, it's a question of how big that whole populist vote is and how much discontent there is in the euro
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Apr 21 2017 Front National
Boris Schlossberg has been quoted 103 times. The one recent article where Boris Schlossberg has been quoted is A new reality could be driving stocks - and it could spell volatility ahead. Most recently, Boris Schlossberg was quoted as having said, “All economic data is irrelevant. If [the Trump administration] can't get those two things done in the summertime, then I think a huge part of the 'Trump rally' just simply dies on the vine.”.
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Boris Schlossberg quotes

None of those policy initiatives have been enacted; it's been much more toward protectionism and toward anti-terrorism. And the market, I think, is losing patience, and that is why you're seeing the whole Trump portfolio basket trade move off. Now, if he reasserts his economic policy and if he comes back to those ideas quickly, those trades are going to come right back. But if he again wallows in much more political issues as we go forward, I think you're going to see much more of a correction than you currently have

I think oil is in a very dangerous zone now precisely because demand is not there. The irony of this whole thing is that OPEC cuts are holding, but the demand is not there. And the longer oil wallows at this $52 level, the more likely it's actually going to go to the downside. And if it trips to $50 a barrel stops, I think it could really tumble very quickly. So I think we're in a perilous

A break of 112.00 yen to the downside in dollar/yen...would signal a more significant correction of the dollar rally, indicating that the greenback is no longer a sure way bet to rise this

The problem is that if you engage in protectionist policies, it's very likely going to raise prices for the American

Yes, Amazon is doing a lot of volume for them, but the rest of the economy may not be producing as much as everybody thinks. And that could be a tell that growth going forward – the expectations for growth going forward – need to be tempered, and that could be an interesting early warning sign for investors. Right now I'm taking the warning sign

I think he's serious about spending. He's not a guy who does not like to spend, if you know anything about Donald Trump, so he's going to try to make all sorts of spending on infrastructure, it's a real possibility … that's, I think, a cornerstone of his platform. He really believes it. So one of the more interesting trades here is actually on the other side of the

I think that the trade is, buy near-term, but sell intermediate term, because it's definitely going to run out of juice going

Markets have clearly been taken aback by his confrontational style of politics and unless the U.S. economy shows some rapid improvements in growth, the enthusiasm that accompanied Mr. Trump into the office will quickly turn into fear as investors begin to consider the costs of his protectionist policies and bare knuckles style of

There's definitely some sort of a storm coming. I don't know if it's going to be mild, or more severe, but it's almost impossible for me to believe that we're just going to have this very, very calm, pretty natural calm for much longer. Something's going to trip the markets and they're going to get

I think it's a long-term good hold at this point, so you have to scale and buy as you

You may see the dollar reverse quite a lot if the press conference disappoints. Right now the market is pricing in a lot of

If he gets quagmired in politics, I think a lot of the Trump trade is going to unwind very quickly. If, however, his laser focus is on economic reform, these Trump trades are going to pick up steam once again. So it's very much going to be up to him as to whether the Trump trade continues or not over the next month or

I think the only number that really matters is the 3 percent number, but it's the 3 percent of wage growth. If we see wage growth of 3 percent or better this year, then all other numbers are going to come in

I would be much more likely to want to buy the pullback than try to chase this rally. I think there's very, very limited upside here in this

I would definitely be buying the pullbacks, because I think it's certainly, definitely bottomed out, but I don't see too much potential to the

The market is betting on a very broad-based increase in growth and if his policy mix actually ends up in a lumpy distribution of growth, it's not going to be positive. It's difficult to predict because you don't know what Trump will do. He is very unpredictable. He's inheriting a very strong economy, and he's got a lot of wind at his back. It's just a question of how he's going to manage

This is the only economic number you should be watching for the next three months. If wage growth isn't there, the Fed stays still. Mark my

I think it was actually surprising to see [Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen's] rhetoric, which was much more hawkish than the reality on the Street. And the reason why is because the only factor that matters ... is wage

And wage growth is still not there, retail spending is still not there. Now, [if] those two things start to go up, then yes, we're all on board for further rate hikes. But if we don't see that improving, I think we're dead and

There's going to be so many people who are just going to want to make sure to mark up inventory before the year-end to make sure they are participating in this

I think [Johnson] has a chance to eke over the line, and the reason why is I think the Fed is going to be a lot more dovish than the market thinks, and that's going to give that extra fuel to the

They don't want to see this 'melt up' in rates so far so fast and this massive move in the dollar, as well, because it is going to start to impact profits in [the first quarter] if the story just continues

It's at this point the kind of situation where we are so used to every single day being a drama day that in fact, it actually makes the drama much less potent at this point. So I think unless the Chinese do come back at us, at this point I think things are relatively OK; nobody is taking it too seriously, and that's really what the market is

I think it's a relatively correct level of fear because the macro backdrop is actually very, very favorable. Economically, everything seems to be in expansionary

The market has gotten way ahead of itself. And I think it's going to be the Fed that is going to put the brakes on this whole

It probably very much will – but the bottom-line question is, Is there so much demand for oil to let's say, go to $60, $70 a barrel?' And I think that's very dubious. He said global gasoline demand has peaked and is heading

So I think the whole energy complex is going to be facing more problems than the market admits, and that's why I'm a little bit cautious on the whole

The blatant lie without any proof - and one that has been roundly challenged by all of the country's voting experts - was unprecedented in American politics and may have made some market traders doubt Mr. Trump's

It's just all positive U.S data creating a huge amount of stop running in the currency market. it took out a very big level in dollar/

That means there is a seminal tectonic massive shift here, and I think the banks are going to be a 'buy-the-dip' buy for quite a long

Also, whenever somebody says to me something is at a 30-year overbought condition, my first instinct is not to fade the move, but actually buy the dip because that means we are in a breakout

We've been talking ad infinitum about the fact of the steepening yield curve, and now we're starting to see that

It's a risk trade, it's an infrastructure trade, and if President-elect Trump goes through with this infrastructure proposals, you're going to see copper go even

[Trump] couldn't care less about profit. He only cares about sales at this point. If he goes across the aisle and works with Bernie Sanders, his approval rating is going to go into the

I think bonds die. Dollar rallies. Stocks rally. Trump is the master destroyer of credit, and I have to think you have to bet on

There's just three scenarios. If Clinton wins, a huge part of it is getting priced in. It's the anticlimactic trade. That's the conventional scenario – or Trump wins, or we have a contested

A contestable election with no clear outcome that could (create a) quagmire the markets for months-worth of uncertainty. The dollar gets very badly hurt, but more importantly it becomes a very volatile market driven by every possible headline. I think it creates destruction in both assets and investor

Scenario two is Trump wins. All bets are off. Dollar/Swiss sells off. Dollar/yen goes down to 100. Both the Swiss National Bank and Prime Minister Abe's spokesman said they would be watching the markets carefully. Both of them understand there could be a rush out of the dollar if Trump

If they call Florida and Michigan for her, the dollar's going to have an uninterrupted rally. But if there's no call for Michigan and no calls for Florida by 10 p.m., we're going to have a volatile

Around 11:15 a.m. the whole pro-Clinton trade in FX started to move in concert - Mexican peso, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen all went to session highs or session lows - and that's mainly because Votecastr released projections that Florida was trending (Clinton's) way, which is really the only thing that

Even though Votecastr is projecting Pennsylvania going early to (Trump) it wouldn't matter. Florida has always been the main pivot in this election and the fact that she's trending strongly so far is really what it all comes down

Dollar/peso will be the absolute proxy for the election, and if we see massive moves in dollar/peso by around 8 o'clock in the evening, it will mean the exit polls are strongly indicating she has a wrap on

I think you're probably going to see much better performance out of Europe than you will out of the U.S., primarily because of the stronger

Maybe companies are simply seeing the last possible time where they can have cheap financing going

I think it's interesting that [Alphabet] could become just as much of a hardware company as it is a software company, if they can succeed in this whole new arena of artificial

I think it's a good buy; you know, one of the best ways to make money in the market is to buy great companies when they stumble, and it appears that Chipotle has gotten a handle on all of its health problems, and now, at this point, really seems to be seeing a

I think gold will be one of the most active, reactionary instruments to a Trump win, because that will create a massive amount of volatility, a massive amount of uncertainty in global markets and in geopolitical

So there are clearly some warning signs out there that I think something is slowing down, whether it just simply pauses and refreshes, or really we're going to start to fall off a cliff; I think is too early to

When you think of it from a global macro perspective, we are starting to see some serious cracks in global

This is really a lottery ticket trade. You don't know which of them could

The problem with that idea is that you just don't know which one of them will begin to go back up on a

In electronic markets, human traders always forget just how much magnitude and speed happens when computers are involved, and we always underestimate the power of the

Once we see that rate hike, yields are definitely going to start moving in the right direction, so I agree completely that this is a turn in yields and it's not going

So I can't really draw any ominous conclusions out of this whole

It's just been a major, major migration away from what, you could almost say 'dumb money,' which is individual stock ownership into much more systematized ETF money, and that's actually exposed many more households to probably a better way of investing into a more diversified

The dollar and oil are moving lock and step, and I think the other reason for why that's happening is because it's sort of a boom

It's a bet on the fact that the global economy is actually not slowing down as much as everybody

But frankly, I think a lot of that trade has already been priced

Since Australia pretty much supports all of the commodity product to China, it's going to create a very big backlash onto

It's going to become a factor for financial

It depends on the intensity of the win or loss. I actually think they're going to fight to a standstill. ? If he trips up badly, the dollar would rally. That would give the market something more certain. If she trips up badly, I think the dollar could really take a

The peso has been beaten down like a pinata ever since he's started showing some strength. The peso has been the primary expression of emerging markets nervousness about Trump coming to

The Bank of Japan effectively admitted the error of their ways by saying that their attempt at negative interest rates and standard quantitative easing was not

The whole game has kind of turned into what I call 'Pokemon shopping,' where everybody is looking for discount

Yes, I think we see further upside to the Apple, but right now I would be cautious about chasing the highs at this point. I would want to wait to see it retrace maybe 2 or 3 percent to the downside before establishing a

I think it's just run away for the near term at this

Despite the relatively weak economic (data) that we've had this month, the market decided that it appears central bank officials are no longer enamored with (ultra-low) interest rate policy; they really want to normalize rate policy sooner rather than

Overall, if you believe that growth continues, it's all systems go for Berkshire for the time

She needs to really reaffirm for the market that they are very seriously moving toward a rate hike in December; otherwise I think they stand a very, very strong chance of just losing all credibility, because the rhetoric out of all the other Fed officials has been relatively

Russia, still, like John McCain said, is basically a gas station masquerading as a

I think $50 (a barrel oil) is going to be a cap here. I think the Saudis are going to come flood the market, I think the frackers are going to come flood the market, so I don't see too much

In this case, if the stocks continue to run, you still make a little bit of money. If it doesn't, if it does come in, at least you've gotten a better average price. You've bought the

The euro is kind of range bound, and the yen is a huge problem for everything because it continues to strengthen. The Japanese have run out of ideas and

It's monetary policymakers that are driving the dollar. I think there's a very slow but discernible shift by fiscal policymakers to finally take control of the economy. This whole idea of austerity is dying a slow

The market is just not excited about anything going on. The belief is even if the Fed wanted to do something, the rest of the world is moving the other way. They don't really want to tip the scales in terms of tightening. I don't think they think the global economy is strong enough to take a

I think if this election is bringing anything to the forefront, it's the idea that it's time for fiscal officials to take control of the

Exchange rates continue to wreak havoc with Japanese exporters' efforts, and given the recent appreciation of the yen the problem will not improve in the near

The pair has unwound most of the gains of the prior three weeks. Japanese authorities may be forced to once again consider intervention, although prior episodes have proved

Buy them you must because until the interest rate posture changes I really think all of these things can easily

In order for financials to really create a sustainable rally, we need to have a much more steeper yield

For the last five quarters year on year, earnings have been down. But on the technical side, we're at record highs. History shows that record highs have tended to precede yet loftier levels in the months

If we can break above $1,300, we could have a new rally in gold, because the market is going to essentially assume that the Fed will stay stationary until

The ultimate crash scenario is England pulls out and everybody looks around and says: 'They managed to survive. Why do we need this?' and then they all decide to pull the strings apart and that creates a lot of

London is the financial capital of the world. Unknown is how much an ability there will be for London to be the conduit of all financial transactions in the world. Brexit really punches above its weight. It's not just Europe, not just the U.K. but the whole global financial

Brexit would present the first formal challenge to the current global economic order and could spark a much wider and more dangerous fracture of the European

It is a bounce based on the commodities bounce. The key question is: How do you view commodities right now?feedback

This whole commodities rally could have more legs going forward, and that could keep those stocks

This is the absolute right time for them to do a rate hike in June before the general election starts, before you have turmoil in the

Would it help financial stocks right now? Absolutely. Is it going to steep the curve for a bit? Absolutely. But I don't think long-term secular move by the Fed, by any means, this is just a one and done move to satisfy the

Usually the yen is up when equities are down. So, we had a decoupling of that and now it's just a momentum

It's been difficult to interpret this. They don't want a huge move all at once. They want to keep the markets guessing. The mixed message is the new

The dollar move is the unwind of the trade the other way. We had a huge move in commodities that hurt the dollar. Part of this is that adding a little bit of fuel to the

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