Carsten Brzeski - ING-DiBa

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Last quote by Carsten Brzeski

The parliamentary election on October 15 has so far not been on Europe's radar screen. Wrongly so, as Austria could become (once again) the first core euro zone country with a populist party in government. At the end of a year in which populist parties had threatened the survival of the entire euro zone, the Austrian election could be an interesting hint for the entire euro zone: populism is not dead but the next stage of populism is acceptable populism.feedback
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Oct 13 2017 Populism
Carsten Brzeski has been quoted 116 times in 88 different articles. On this page, you will find all of Carsten Brzeski’s quotes organized by date and topic. Alongside each quote is a link back to the article where the quote was reported, so you can go back to the source for more context if you need it. Topics that Carsten Brzeski speaks about are ECB, Germany, and economy, for example. Most recently, Carsten Brzeski was quoted in the article Europe's most important economic policymaker may soon be losing his job saying, “Coalition building will be extremely difficult. If Schauble would really no longer be Finance minister it would be a watershed for the entire euro zone. An exit of one of the main characters of the entire euro zone crisis clearly marks the end of a historical chapter. I don't think that the FDP can implement its own views, but it will definitely slow down any new steps towards more integration.”.
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Carsten Brzeski quotes

Jul 20 2017 - Oil

This is a clear sign that the ECB does not want to pour more oil on the small taper tantrum fire seen in financial markets over the last few weeks.feedback

Jul 19 2017

On the one hand, the ECB wants to prepare financial markets for tapering, without creating a 'taper tantrum'. On the other hand, in a world without inflationary pressure, the ECB will have to substantiate the tapering preparation with economic arguments that do not leave market participants completely stumped; a balancing act that requires all of Draghi's verbal acrobatic skills.feedback

Jul 19 2017 - Oil

The ECB will continue to face little home-made inflationary pressure. If anything, the drop in oil prices, the pick-up in bond yields and the strengthening of the euro have further deteriorated the ECB's inflationary outlook.feedback

Jun 30 2017

Apparently there are still market participants who thought this stimulus would last forever.feedback

Jun 30 2017

It is the opening for the E.C.B. to move toward tapering.feedback

Jun 12 2017

Generally speaking, the Eurozone is the big surprise of the year. This has to do with financial markets' tendency to exaggerate, in both directions. Again, as much as the Eurozone was not at the edge of breaking up at the beginning of the year, it is now probably also not at the start of a new paradise. The middle is somewhere in the middle. There are still enough structural reforms that will have to be implemented, both economic and institutional.feedback

Jun 08 2017

The easing bias has now gone.feedback

Jun 08 2017

The current German recovery remains unbreakable.feedback

Jun 01 2017 - French election 2017

Everything would depend on the responsibilities and powers such a euro zone finance minister would receive. Would be a representative role or would it come together with a euro zone budget. Latest comments from Merkel and Macron have given hope that the Franco-German axis could really revive further integration of the euro zone. However, the coming days will show whether it was only words or whether particularly the Germans are willing to put their money where their mouth is.feedback

May 30 2017

The May drop in German headline inflation should be another reminder that the current cyclical upswing in the euro zone takes place without inflationary pressure. If even an economy which has just entered its ninth year of economic expansion and which has record high employment does not show any inflationary pressures, how could the euro zone as a whole do so any time soon?feedback

May 23 2017 - French Election Results

The entire eurozone economy could become the positive growth surprise of 2017. With political risks now ebbing away, economics (ie. at least a positive cyclical upswing) have quickly taken over. This sentiment is also spreading across financial markets, with many market participants now realizing that the eurozone economy had been written off too early. However, as much as the pessimism at the start of the year was exaggerated, the current euphoria is as well. Be aware of the sugar rush. Despite the cyclical upswing, structural problems in the eurozone economy have not disappeared.feedback

May 18 2017 - Unemployment

I think that a euro zone finance minister, some reshuffling of European funds to get closer to a euro zone unemployment insurance and further policy harmonization are the most feasible next steps. The real huge steps towards financial burden sharing, tax harmonization and loss of national sovereignty are still highly unlikely to happen, even though they should.feedback

May 18 2017

This French reform effort will be highly needed to convince the German public that topics like Eurobonds, a euro zone finance minister or simply the loss of national sovereignty, can be stomached.feedback

May 16 2017 - French Election Results

The latest move still reflects the relief of financial markets after the French elections. With political risks fading away, the macro story is surfacing. And it is a positive story. Just confirmed by strong gross domestic product data in the first quarter. (I) think that markets are gradually realizing that the euro zone economy could be the big positive surprise of the global economy this year.feedback

May 16 2017

The latest strengthening of the euro is mainly a euro-dollar story. Since early April, the bilateral exchange rate appreciated by some 4 percent, while the nominal effective exchange rate only increased by a good 1 percent. Against the positive macro background and fading political risks, the ECB will finally be able to move towards tapering. This should lead to a further strengthening of the euro. Although not a substantial one. We expect the euro to end the year at around 1.15.feedback

May 03 2017

The labor market will remain an important growth driver for the entire economy.feedback

Apr 28 2017 - Protectionism

Everyone talks about Trump, he also talked a lot, but in the end if you really look at what he delivered, it's very little. So we had two weeks of actions with two weeks full of presidential orders, but in the end his big projects like more protectionism, like tax reforms, like a big investment programme, all these economic reforms have never happened.feedback

Apr 27 2017 - Unemployment

Before getting too enthusiastic, not all is well in the euro zone.feedback

Apr 26 2017

The timing of this week's ECB meeting could have been hardly more unfortunate. Even though the economic data since the March meeting has supported the view of brightening economic prospects, slowly paving the way for a very gentle exit from the current ultra-loose monetary policy, this week's meeting simply comes too early for any change.feedback

Apr 25 2017 - French election 2017

Even though we still expect the ECB to give its first signs of tapering at the June or July meeting, it looks extremely unlikely that the ECB wants to steer market expectations in between the first and second rounds of the French presidential elections.feedback

Apr 21 2017 - French Election Results

Even though on the eve of the first round of the French elections a good portion of caution is recommendable, evidence is piling up that the eurozone economy could become the positive growth surprise of the year.feedback

Mar 27 2017 - German economy

Even though the German economy could still use some new structural reforms, today's Ifo index illustrates that low-interest rates, a relatively weak euro and continued government consumption should once again extend the current golden cycle.feedback

Mar 14 2017

The four countries are not the same. Germany and the Netherlands are economically much stronger than France and Italy. Particularly, the Netherlands have implemented a lot of structural reforms which should enable the economy to grow in the coming years.feedback

Mar 14 2017 - Front National

From an economic point of view, obviously France with a president Le Pen would face the biggest problems.feedback

Mar 14 2017

Germany is still benefiting from earlier reforms and low interest rates and the weak euro. France is doing better than expected but not good enough. Lack of reforms and weak international competitiveness will continue to weigh on growth prospects in coming years. Italy is the most complicated case with hardly any growth over the last decade and the lack of a clear growth model for the entire economy.feedback

Mar 14 2017

Theoretically, the two countries which are performing best (the Netherlands and Germany) would have less problems coping with the economic policies of populists as long as they are mainly directed at social transfers and more government spending.feedback

Mar 09 2017 - Christmas

The increase in industrial production shows that the shocking drop in December was mainly driven by the Christmas season and the cold winter weather. At the same time, however, the fact that on the year industrial production has remained flat shows just how difficult it is for the industry to get out of stagnation.feedback

Mar 08 2017

An important reason for not taking any hasty action is the ECB's own track record of jumping the gun. In 2007/8 and 2011, the ECB hiked rates, the first based on German wage increases and the second when the worst of the euro zone debt crisis seemed to be over. Both times, the ECB was taught a lesson. It seems unlikely that the ECB would want to jump the gun for a third time, particularly not on the eve of two important elections in the euro zone.feedback

Mar 08 2017

With headline inflation in the euro zone back at the magic 2 percent, the ECB hawks and critics will gradually sense that their moment has come to push for tapering. In our view, however, they will not want to add any new uncertainty in the eve of two important elections in the Eurozone.feedback

Mar 07 2017 - German economy

I think that Germany would not oppose ECB fire-fighting. In the end, a chaotic break-up of the euro zone would also harm the German economy. Let's not forget that even if Germany was to leave the euro zone, this would mean a sharp appreciation of the currency combined with even lower interest rates. Not the best prospects for the German economy.feedback

Mar 07 2017

The irony of the ECB's current QE program is that it hinders the (central bank) to easily tackle a political crisis and market turmoil. QE has paralyzed bond markets… In short, the ECB would have to replace QE with tailor-made OMT.feedback

Mar 02 2017 - European Commission

Stripping the EU to the basics of the Single Market could, according to the European Commission, mean that decision-making might be simpler to understand 'but the capacity to act collectively is limited'. Consequently, the EU could also become a network of bilateral agreements and deals, which might 'widen the gap between expectations and delivery at all levels.' If the EU would be stripped to the basics of the Single Market, the entire euro zone could also be at risk.feedback

Feb 07 2017

Even though it looks dramatic, today's December drop should be taken with a pinch of salt.feedback

Feb 07 2017

Uncertainty in and about two of Germany's most important trading partners, the U.S. and the UK, should put a cap on any upward potential.feedback

Feb 06 2017

Still, against the background of Brexit and Trump, today's data suggest that the German industry could shift into a higher gear in the first quarter of 2017.feedback

Jan 30 2017

Following today's inflation data, German ECB-bashing is very likely to gain further momentum. Obviously, increasing inflation – no matter what the drivers are – combined with low interest rates leads to even more negative real interest rates and hurts savers.feedback

Jan 25 2017 - German economy

Particularly the construction sector should remain an important growth driver in 2017.feedback

Jan 25 2017 - German Politics

According to latest opinion polls, Merkel's CDU stands at 37 percent with the SPD trailing far behind with 20 percent. With Schulz, the SPD could be able to close this gap somewhat. However, it would need a significant closing of this gap before a coalition without the CDU as biggest party would become a feasible option.feedback

Jan 19 2017

Only once this sentence has been dropped.feedback

Jan 18 2017 - French politics

The December decision has put the ECB on autopilot at least until the summer and until after the Dutch and French elections. This autopilot should also immunize the ECB against short-term volatility in macro data.feedback

Jan 16 2017 - Protectionism

If we really take Mr. Trump's words for granted then we do see the end of free trade. This is the start for a trade war. It's the start for a period of protectionism. The hope is that in the end his policies will not be as harmful as they sound right now. But if you look at these policies of 'own country first', trying to isolate the country from foreign companies, trying to impose tariffs – this will lead to retaliations from other countries, namely that the EU then will also increase border tariffs. And this clearly is the end of free trade.feedback

Jan 12 2017 - German economy

The German economy in 2016 once again defied an entire series of downside risks, thanks to strong domestic demand.feedback

Jan 09 2017 - Volkswagen scandal

Today's data finally bring some evidence that the German economy gained momentum in the final quarter of the year. Even though industrial data is still not living up to the expectations created by buoyant soft indicators, the surge in exports and the gradual recovery of industrial production brings some relief for a battered industry.feedback

Jan 06 2017

An interesting element of Dutch politics is that in many ways it is a front-runner for political trends in all of Europe. Populist parties already made it into government in the early 2000s and coalition-forming has become more complicated due to the rise of populist parties on both the right and the left wing of the political spectrum.feedback

Dec 19 2016

Unfortunately, as with so many good things, the current positive growth cycle is also coming to an end. Gradually, not abruptly.feedback

Dec 19 2016

Real risks to the German outlook mainly seem to stem from the outside. The still unknown impact from President-elect Trump on trade and economic policies, the ongoing Brexit uncertainty and renewed political tensions in Europe due to several elections or a new flaring up of the Greek crisis are in our view the biggest risks for 2017.feedback

Dec 08 2016

It is the combination of extending and tapering that we thought would not yet happen as it could risk an unwarranted increase in bond yields. Even without calling this tapering, the ECB just announced tapering.feedback

Dec 02 2016

The president could even lead to new elections and a populist government. It needs a series of very unlikely if's and when's but this did not prevent markets from speculating on a worst-case scenario in Italy.feedback

Dec 02 2016

Markets are focusing on the size of the economy and the potential for drama… totally overlook(ing) the symbolic effect, the Austrian elections could have.feedback

Nov 25 2016 - Christian Democratic Union of Germany

Schulz, if supported by his party, could stand for a clear pro-European platform in the elections and would force Merkel to put her cards on the table. Schulz's rhetorics are clearly better than Merkel's. So, at first glance, this would be bad news for Merkel but good news for Germany.feedback

Nov 24 2016

Since the first Brexit shock, the Ifo index has staged an impressive comeback, suggesting that the summer slowdown of the entire economy was only a blip and not a new trend.feedback

Nov 07 2016

It is hard to see how German industry can shift to a higher gear. Against this background, the optimism reflected in surging confidence indicators is in our view striking.feedback

Nov 07 2016

The initial relief after the Brexit shock provided by two positive months with increasing new orders has now given room for realism. German industry is still running low on fuel.feedback

Oct 18 2016

Maybe the most interesting development in recent weeks has been the verbal shift of several ECB members towards a more hawkish tone. Other members warned against the unintended risks of maintaining interest rates too low for too long.feedback

Oct 07 2016

This clearly has the flavour of an election present. However, before anyone gets carried away by the idea of big-scale fiscal stimulus in Germany, the announced tax relief should amount to only 6 billion euros, spread over two years. Less than 0.1 percent of GDP per year.feedback

Oct 07 2016 - Refugees

Going into 2017, however, weaker real wage growth and the dropping inflow of refugees should weigh on consumption growth.feedback

Oct 07 2016

The "strong industrial data take away some growth concerns for the third quarter.feedback

Oct 05 2016 - Federal Reserve

Testing market reactions to trial balloons is not new to the ECB. The (Federal Reserve) experience with a too early announcement of tapering, however, should still be a good warning to the ECB not to start these tests too early.feedback

Sep 25 2016

Today's Ifo index suggests that at least the Brexit fears have disappeared as quickly as they had emerged. Whether the strong (Ifo) reading is the start of another golden economic Fall or just a flash in the pan is too early to tell.feedback

Sep 25 2016

All in all, disappointing hard data in July and falling soft data since the Brexit vote had provided further evidence that the German economy was losing momentum.feedback

Sep 19 2016 - Christian Democratic Union of Germany

Generally speaking, unless the AfD dismantles itself in the coming twelve months, the likelihood of a three-party coalition will increase as two parties will find it hard to get more than 50 percent of all votes.feedback

Sep 19 2016 - Christian Democratic Union of Germany

Merkel's Christian alliance will now have to carve out a migration compromise, ideally in time for their party conferences in November and December.feedback

Sep 09 2016

A further cooling of the economy in the months ahead should give more support to just-started discussions about fiscal stimulus.feedback

Sep 08 2016

This was a clear hint that the ECB will announce technical changes to its quantitative easing purchases at the October meeting, which is a prerequisite to any extension of QE beyond March 2017.feedback

Sep 07 2016

I don't see the Fed hiking in September but of course if they would, it would make life at the ECB easier.feedback

Sep 07 2016

There is this growing concern, skepticism, about what central banks can still do.feedback

Sep 07 2016

The trend already started long before the British referendum, but clearly the Brexit vote should have been one of the main drivers behind the sharp July drop.feedback

Aug 24 2016

The economy's Achilles' heel … remains the lack of new investment. To kick-start investment in an ageing economy, some government support is needed.feedback

Aug 08 2016

Increased uncertainty about the future of Europe and the euro zone in the wake of the Brexit vote should in our view leave some marks on German industrial activity over the coming months. With stagnating industrial activity, thinner order books and dropping inventories, chances remain low that the former backbone of the German economy will quickly return to its old strength.feedback

Jul 21 2016

All in all, today's meeting was one that will quickly disappear from memories. More action in September is possible but not yet a given.feedback

Jun 24 2016

New financial heart of Europe?feedback

May 30 2016

Higher oil prices should lead to the first upward revision of the ECB's staff inflation forecasts since... early 2015.feedback

May 20 2016

The results of the run-off on May 22 have the potential to further stir up Austrian and maybe even European politics … the elections also show that populist and right-wing parties and trends are not a short-lived fashion but have become mainstream and widely acceptable even in the euro zone core.feedback

May 13 2016 - German economy

With growth driven by construction and consumption and a government which is reluctant to follow up on international advice to implement structural reforms, the German economy has almost started to resemble peripheral (euro zone) characteristics.feedback

Apr 21 2016 - Unemployment

This would be enough to save central banks from having to do even more to tackle deflation. On the other hand, it would probably be too little to force central banks to reconsider their policy stance, particularly in the euro zone, where high unemployment rates will keep core inflation at bay.feedback

Apr 21 2016

ECB-bashing has become fashionable in Germany.feedback

Feb 09 2016

This morning's data were a painful reminder that not all is hunky dory in the euro zone's largest economy. In fact, the German 'Wirtschaftswunder' has only some domestic magic left. consumption has become the most important growth driver thanks to a strong labour market, low interest rates and higher real wages.feedback

Feb 01 2016

Despite the fact that a compromise – at least in theory – is still feasible, it is very hard to tell where the negotiations exactly stand at the current juncture.feedback

Feb 01 2016

The European Summit in February will be another attempt to accommodate David Cameron's demands and ideas (even if they are not entirely clear to everyone) on economic governance, competitiveness and sovereignty. In the area of immigration, the refugee influx could have made it easier for David Cameron to reach some kind of compromise with the European partners.feedback

Jan 19 2016

Despite the fact that 2015 overall was a good year we do see that the economy is suffering from external headwinds such as China, emerging markets, adverse effects from low oil prices and there is now a growing question about the U.S. economy.feedback

Jan 14 2016

Looking ahead, the two-speed recovery, with strong consumption and services on the one hand and sluggish industrial production and exports on the other hand, should continue in 2016.feedback

Dec 02 2015

This is a weak recovery. The risk is that low growth means unemployment remains high and that anti euro parties gain momentum.feedback

Oct 05 2015

The strong increase in exports shows that the cooling of the global economy cannot have been as severe as some feared at the beginning of the year.feedback

Aug 07 2015

Another indicator signalling that Germany's performance is currently not champion-like.feedback

Oct 30 2014

With Germany still having these relatively low inflation numbers, the eurozone as a whole will continue flirting with deflation.feedback

Aug 25 2014

It is admitting that the recovery might not come, that the eurozone's problems go beyond structural reforms and austerity measures. It might be a U-turn for how the ECB looks at fiscal policy but not so much for how it looks at monetary policy.feedback

May 31 2013 - Unemployment

High youth unemployment combined with hatred for Germany can turn into populism and nationalism quite quickly and, in the extreme case, lead to an end of the currency union.feedback

Feb 28 2013

Germany's labour market remains solid as a rock, defying the winter weather and the euro crisis.feedback

Jan 15 2013 - World Happiness report

The German economy might not be an island of happiness any longer but it remains at least an island of growth in a still recessionary eurozone sea.feedback

May 03 2012

With today's press conference, Draghi has sent a painful reminder that the ECB cannot solve the current crisis … there does not seem to be any quick fix or alleviation for the economy in the offing.feedback

May 02 2012 - Unemployment

The economic tailwind from the last two years is clearly fading away.feedback

Sep 07 2011

Today's ruling should bring some relief to financial markets as a total chaos scenario has been avoided but it should not lead to euphoria.feedback

Mar 10 2011

Demand from other euro zone countries is stronger than expected, despite fiscal austerity, and the strengthening US economy should also bring a welcome boost to German exports.feedback

Jul 08 2010

While German consumer confidence probably took a hit with a world championship title out of reach, the German economy is still a promising candidate in another race: euro zone growth champion 2010.feedback

Jan 19 2009

We can expect probably much more fiscal stimulus then we are seeing right now, boosting disposable income, boosting private consumption and a weaker euro than we have right now, they should boost exports over some time. And all these three factors together should more or less feed through into the euro zone economy in the second half of 2009.feedback

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