Carsten Fritsch


Last quote by Carsten Fritsch

A look below $50 (for Brent) is quite possible today if DoE data show a similar pattern, but it's impossible to say how far below $50.
Mar 22 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Carsten Fritsch is associated, including U.S. and Iran. Most recently, Carsten Fritsch has been quoted saying: “The inventory trend in the U.S. raises doubts about whether the OPEC production cuts have actually resulted already in a tighter supply situation.” in the article Oil slips further below $56 on report of U.S. inventory jump. An other article where Carsten Fritsch has been quoted is Analysts weigh OPEC price boost against hit from U.S. shale: Reuters Poll.
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Carsten Fritsch quotes

There is a clear risk of disappointment and for a temporary setback in prices ahead or immediately after the Doha meeting.

The fact that the announcement comes so shortly before the meeting in Doha is a disastrous sign. After all, it gives the impression that the lip service paid to freezing oil production is nothing but hot air.

The bullish sentiment continues to push prices up, or the absence of negative news.

It's a continuation of yesterday's move. What we see still is extreme volatility. I would not be surprised to see prices retreating again by a big margin in coming days.

If prices drop further, the chance for joint action increases and this in turn should prevent a further sharp drop in prices. Today's gain is just a bounceback after yesterday's sharp sell-off.

The weak China PMI (purchasing managers index) is driving down prices because China weighs on the entire commodities sector from the demand side of the equation.

There is still lots of correction potential, given the overhang of speculative long positions and exaggerated hopes for an output freeze.

Data suggest gasoline and distillate fuel stockpiles increased 10.6 million barrels and 6.3 million barrels, respectively, last week. The rise in gasoline and distillate inventory more than offset the fall in crude oil inventory levels by 5.09 million barrels to (still near record) 482.3 million barrels last week.

There is certainly no chance of Saudi Arabia scaling back its oil supply to make space for Iranian oil.

The supply risk regarding Iran is still boiling. On top of this, there is also supply risk from Nigeria.

Output was close to zero in the months after the US invasion. The big question is how much damage has been done to the oil facilities in Libya where the fighting has gone on much longer than in Iraq. There's a risk it may take a bit longer in Libya.

It is mainly the weaker US dollar which is the driver today for gold prices. If the euro-dollar rate rises further, gold will follow suit.

It is more fears that this might spread to places like Algeria, Kuwait or the United Arab Emirates.

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