Carsten Fritsch - Commerzbank

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Last quote by Carsten Fritsch

Congress needs to agree to this which is rather uncertain. But of course, it could weigh on the back end of the forecast.feedback
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NEW May 23 2017 OPEC
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Carsten Fritsch is associated, including U.S. and Iran. Most recently, Carsten Fritsch has been quoted saying: “Congress needs to agree to this which is rather uncertain. But of course, it could weigh on the back end of the forecast.” in the article Oil prices fall on White House proposal to sell U.S. oil reserves.
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Carsten Fritsch quotes

Speculators pushed the price up on expectations of an output freeze, which is unlikely to happen. I see downside risks if those expectations are being scaled back.feedback

In our view a renewed price correction cannot be ruled out if market participants start focusing on the supply side again, for the latest drilling activity figures in the U.S. cast doubts that the oversupply is really being eroded.feedback

Since there was no news yesterday that might have triggered the price rise, this points to short-covering. Clearly many market participants were caught on the hop by the increase in prices following the publication of U.S. inventory data on Wednesday.feedback

Falling gasoline stocks and a renewed decline in U.S. oil production would contribute to stabilising oil prices.feedback

A marked increase in risk aversion, as evidenced in falling stock markets and an appreciating U.S. dollar, is responsible for the latest losses.feedback

The main factor weighing on prices is the much appreciated U.S. dollar.feedback

The production freeze has put a floor under the price. We see a risk of a short-term setback if the meeting produces a disappointment.feedback

There is a clear risk of disappointment and for a temporary setback in prices ahead or immediately after the Doha meeting.feedback

The fact that the announcement comes so shortly before the meeting in Doha is a disastrous sign. After all, it gives the impression that the lip service paid to freezing oil production is nothing but hot air.feedback

The bullish sentiment continues to push prices up, or the absence of negative news.feedback

It's a continuation of yesterday's move. What we see still is extreme volatility. I would not be surprised to see prices retreating again by a big margin in coming days.feedback

If prices drop further, the chance for joint action increases and this in turn should prevent a further sharp drop in prices. Today's gain is just a bounceback after yesterday's sharp sell-off.feedback

The weak China PMI (purchasing managers index) is driving down prices because China weighs on the entire commodities sector from the demand side of the equation.feedback

It's a risk-on day, which in turn is negative for gold.feedback

There is still lots of correction potential, given the overhang of speculative long positions and exaggerated hopes for an output freeze.feedback

Data suggest gasoline and distillate fuel stockpiles increased 10.6 million barrels and 6.3 million barrels, respectively, last week. The rise in gasoline and distillate inventory more than offset the fall in crude oil inventory levels by 5.09 million barrels to (still near record) 482.3 million barrels last week.feedback

There is certainly no chance of Saudi Arabia scaling back its oil supply to make space for Iranian oil.feedback

The supply risk regarding Iran is still boiling. On top of this, there is also supply risk from Nigeria.feedback

Output was close to zero in the months after the US invasion. The big question is how much damage has been done to the oil facilities in Libya where the fighting has gone on much longer than in Iraq. There's a risk it may take a bit longer in Libya.feedback

It is mainly the weaker US dollar which is the driver today for gold prices. If the euro-dollar rate rises further, gold will follow suit.feedback

It is more fears that this might spread to places like Algeria, Kuwait or the United Arab Emirates.feedback

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