Chris Rupkey - MUFG Union Bank

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Last quote by Chris Rupkey

Truth be told it was all weakness in auto sales. Consumers stopped visiting car lots in the first quarter because other retail sales were quite respectable.feedback
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May 12 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Chris Rupkey is associated, including Federal Reserve, September, and economy. Most recently, Chris Rupkey has been quoted saying: “PCE inflation isn't due out until later this month on May 30, and it tends [to] be almost a half-percentage point under the inflation rate measured by the CPI survey of prices. Core PCE inflation was 1.6 percent year to year in March and core CPI inflation was 2.0 percent year-on-year.” in the article Economy rebounding but maybe more muted after retail sales, consumer inflation. An other article where Chris Rupkey has been quoted is Jump in hotel, airline, food costs may signal higher prices coming for consumers.
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Chris Rupkey quotes

The federal funds rate should be brought up to normal at a steady state.feedback

It's certainly better. Consumer confidence was quite high. It's back to where it was in 2007, before the crash of the recession. I'm a little surprised that [people thought] Trump was going to bankrupt the nation with his tax cut and call a halt to America's trade with the rest of the world and cause another recession, and now we're on to 3 to 4 percent growth. It's funny how all the naysayers have kind of disappeared.feedback

Maybe this is what the economy looks like at full employment and we didn't know it. The amazing thing to me is Trump is trying to stimulate the economy and we're at full employment. Nobody has ever tried to stimulate the economy with employment rate this low.feedback

It's building. It was building before Trump won. That's the odd thing that can't be reconciled. All the uncertainty factors, the presidential election has been on peoples' radar as a risk for the economy since spring and instead the economy's got a lot of momentum behind it, including big increases in personal income and wage and salary income.feedback

The jobless claims are suggesting the labor market is going to get a second wind.feedback

Health care and financial company stocks will lead the way.feedback

GDP was always the be-all, end-all, especially for us as economists, but if you look at the Fed forecasts, they're … 2.0 [percent growth] … all the way out to 2019.feedback

I think they would say 'next meeting.' When you have somebody like [Charles] Evans from Chicago saying he's OK with December, it sounds pretty much like it's a done deal, save the stock market falling a thousand points.feedback

The meeting minutes make plain that the case for a rate hike was a close call and it looks like the only way (Federal Reserve Chair Janet) Yellen could hold down the get-going voices of the hawks was to promise them a rate hike later this year. At this point there would have to be some very weak economic data for the Fed not to raise rates in December.feedback

I think the Fed has to get over its fear of what the markets are going to do. It should certainly get over any fear of unleashing a new taper tantrum.feedback

I think people are hiding behind the fact that futures markets have 20 percent odds of a move, and the Fed would not go against that, but my reading is that's not relevant in this case because the market's never going to give them a green light. The longer the Fed goes on, the market is going to do what it does.feedback

The market itself is not right now, and it probably needs a wake-up call by the Fed.feedback

If GDP is close to 3 percent this quarter it will only be due to a one-off jump in inventories rebuild that does nothing for the growth outlook in future quarters.feedback

The trend towards an increase of inventories at the wholesale level gives us greater confidence that GDP growth will be well above 2 percent in the third quarter as factories restart their engines and start to produce the goods to replenish the store shelves.feedback

Rates are a long way from normal levels and the Fed has no firepower to come to the aid of the economy if a recession were to hit.feedback

The labor market has not been this good since the 1970s. The Fed has operational risk.feedback

There are millions of jobs going begging right now in what has got to be one of the biggest mismatches between skills and lack of qualified help available in the nation's history. The economy seems strong enough to weather a rate hike.feedback

We advise Fed officials to throw their caution to the wind just like the American consumer is. It is time for Fed officials to get back on track and move rates up at a gradual pace.feedback

It's a message. Still, the most powerful person on the Fed is Yellen. She's turned them back before. I'm hoping that she's going to signal that September is a live meeting, a little more alive.feedback

I think more people are getting more worried about what the presidential election will do. I don't count that out as a major risk factor. It could make Brexit look like peanuts in terms of the financial market effect.feedback

I think they're struggling to come out and explain why the market has one or two rate hikes, and they have six or seven rate hikes over the next couple of years. They keep hitting back and saying the market is complacent. … he kind of talked out of both sides of his mouth.feedback

To me the GDP data didn't look that good. It's close to 1 percent for three straight quarters. That fits with [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen's idea that rates are going to stay lower for longer.feedback

Business investment is slowing and this makes us question the outlook going forward. What do companies see that we don't?feedback

She did not address the timing of the Fed's next gradual move which suggests to us that she is in no hurry. We are telling clients to take the summer off. See all of you Fed watchers in September.feedback

Is the paltry 38K gain real? Well we hope not. We were thinking the speed would be 150-170K on average for this point forward.feedback

Consumers are taking the leap and buying the biggest of big ticket items of their lives and this speaks to confidence. The Federal Reserve can raise rates at their June meeting without fear the economy is going to slow.feedback

They are sending the clueless market a clue, make no mistake about it. A rate hike in June. Bet on it.feedback

I don't think they're going to tip their hand on the policy section of it. I think the hawkishness might come in their description of the economy, because credit spreads have come back and are no longer a worry. The stock market is no longer down 10 percent on the year. Even the G-20 was less concerned about the economic outlook for the world.feedback

It could be as much as them stepping over the weakness in the first quarter and making it out to be temporary.feedback

The fears of world economic growth (slowing) are not causing a concern for business owners here in the U.S. with all the help wanted signs up in the windows.feedback

If it does print, sub-200,000 I think it's going to worry the Fed. If jobs are below 200,000, it's going to cause some more financial market turmoil. Stocks are probably going to get hit and bonds are going to rally. It's not going to take a lot. The market is biased to think a recession is looming on the horizon. This might be one of the first times we talk ourselves into a recession.feedback

First time jobless claims are elevated. They're not down at 250,000, 260,000. The layoffs seem to be growing.feedback

Let's see what happens tomorrow. The Fed's kind of historically split here, where there's hardened positions on both sides. For many of the members of the dovish slant they want to see job creation continue at the rapid pace of last year, but for others on the Fed that's not a condition.feedback

The future is somewhat darker ... the labor market may be past its peak for this cycle. It looks like the labor market has scaled back its rapid advance last month.feedback

It's not going to be smooth sailing in 2016, but we don't see the ship sinking either, and the rising concern about a recession later on this year triggered by China, those fears need a reality check.feedback

Don't count the economy out yet with the darkening skies seen in January as world stock markets fell on worries over China and crude oil and world growth. Worries don't become reality.feedback

The economy got hit from all sides in December. If these weak data keep going into 2016, the outlook is going to grow even dimmer given the recent financial market turbulence and the fears over what a slowdown in China means for the rest of the world.feedback

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