Chris Weston

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Last quote by Chris Weston

(T)here is new focus on Korea, where the Korean won and Kospi have found sellers easy to come by of late on concern that North Korea could be a future U.S. target.feedback
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Apr 11 2017 North Korea
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Chris Weston is associated, including US and U.S. Treasuries. Most recently, Chris Weston has been quoted saying: “The reaction here has been quite punchy and it's interesting that there were no real discussions about a lesser need to hike rates if the balance sheet is also being used as a policy tool – a theme Bill Dudley has been pushing of late.” in the article Asia markets to open lower tracking losses on Wall Street after Fed minutes, eye US-China summit.
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Chris Weston quotes

We didn't expect to see the market down 1 percent. This suggests that the markets are starting to get a little bit more nervous about Trump's protectionist policies and their potential impact on global trade; not to mention the controversy around the policies and the fact the world seems to be uniting in some sort of condemnation.feedback

Whether the markets start to price in a stronger Trump risk premium is yet to be seen, but the S&P 500 rallying 1 percent last week in the face of various protectionist measures suggest this premium is not yet in the market.feedback

The market likes what they have heard from Trump and his administration… where the rhetoric and actions highlighted a sheer urgency, purpose and drive to push the US economy forward and this has traders putting risk back on the table.feedback

The story in Australia is clearly around the moves in commodities and the materials sector.feedback

The Fed, like everyone else in the market, have full focus on the execution of Trump's fiscal program and see upside risks to their forecasts if it comes off. That is a sizeable 'if' because ... much needs to go right.feedback

The key will then be whether they increase their 2017 and more likely 2018 GDP forecasts from 2% respectively.feedback

Traders want to be hedged against this situation, so people are buying financials globally. Everyone wants to benefit from a reflation trade, and financials are generally your natural hedge against that.feedback

We've had a strong run this week. We're up about 2 percent and are headed towards 5,600, the top end of this year's trading range. However, we're missing a bit of a catalyst today.feedback

You've got great yield in the banks, you've got very stable earnings. We still have very low volatitity in financial stocks, which is great for income trade.feedback

The Q3 Australian business investment plans are expected to fall 3 percent and this could have implications for next week's Q3 GDP print, but one should also look out for the fourth estimate of business investment plans for 2016/17.feedback

We have a number of really bullish set-ups in global indices at present, obviously, we've seen this front and center in all four main US indices, the Nikkei 225 and also the Chinese CSI 300, which is near the year's highs. However, we can now add the ASX 200, which, after pushing through 5,500 is eyeing the year's highs of 5,611 itself.feedback

If you want to hedge or profit from a 'make America normal again' trade the best way is through the Japanese equity market, and specifically the banks.feedback

This market looks like it wants to go up to 5500....I think being long and staying long seems to be the trend for now.feedback

If the Fed were to assess financial conditions in the wake of a potential rate hike they would be wholly enthused.feedback

U.S. equity and many other developed markets are going higher, at least in the short-term.feedback

In terms of event risk, I suspect today's NAB business confidence print will do little to alter market sentiment [and the] same could be said for China's October trade data.feedback

We are not quite at the point where we need to think about canned food and underground wood bunkers, but we are being schooled in understanding the dynamics politics plays on financial markets. Despite all the thoughts about central bank policy changes, improving inflation trends and ever-changing economics, politics dominates markets above all else.feedback

People are looking to mitigate the risks around their portfolios as the clarity of the investment landscape is deteriorating as Donald Trump picks up (vote) share.feedback

The market gave us a reasonable idea about how it plans to react to a Trump victory, with politics dominating Friday's U.S. trading session. The interesting dynamic here is that despite a strong headline U.S. Q3 GDP report of 2.9 percent, the interest rate market couldn't really care less and the increased chance of Trump in the White House has actually seen the chance of a December rate hike fall to 70 percent.feedback

Apple's numbers after-market look quite uninspiring and we are seeing shares down 2.5 percent in after-hours trade.feedback

The US dollar strength is the big story for me overnight, predominantly driven by Euro weakness more than anything else.feedback

U.S. markets have provided Asia with a healthy platform from which to progress. We've also seen a slew of earnings reports (including Goldman Sachs) and once again whether one is looking at the underlying earnings or the sales lines, companies are beating the analysts' estimates.feedback

No one really expected to hear a categorical statement that we are going to see the Saudis curbing oil production.feedback

If you are an international fund manager, you can look much more positively at the Australian market because the income that you are buying is actually appreciating in Australian dollar terms. So we got that kind of perfect storm in the Australian market to outperform.feedback

Initial USD weakness was met with some better buying as the session grew and this seems to have taken some of the heat out of further risk sentiment.feedback

As one can imagine, no one is prepared to take on too much risk.feedback

One suspects that there will be an air of relief and many will be pleased that the technical glitch happened on a day where corporate news flow was limited and the leads from Wall Street were as flat as you will ever see.feedback

The bulls have wrestled some sort of control back in U.S. equity indices, but ... there is still a good amount of technical work to be done for the bulls to fully be in control.feedback

Anyone still left calling for a September hike next week from the Federal Reserve must be feeling a bit hot under the collar after further signs of economic vulnerabilities. It's no surprise to see reasonable buying in the short- to medium-duration U.S. Treasuries, while the longer end of the curve hardly moved.feedback

The VIX (U.S. volatility index) had the biggest move since the U.K. referendum, gaining 39.9 percent.feedback

Oil has been at the heart of the move, helping high yield credit spreads to narrow relative to U.S. treasuries and put real backbone behind the feel good factor.feedback

Financials are driving the losses today. The Australian economy is slowing and there are concerns about the future of Australia's financials.feedback

The composition of the result was a little bit disappointing.feedback

Hotter than forecast average workweek hours, hourly earnings and participation rate suggests this report was of genuinely quality.feedback

All-in-all, it should be a quieter week for event risk with the markets having had time to digest central bank initiatives and commentary from the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve.feedback

Of course, if the crunch came and they needed power quickly we would respond.feedback

The fact we've only seen a modest recovery in the [currency] pair suggests trader see very little appetite for this uber-unconventional policy change and we should see the Nikkei open on the back foot today.feedback

If we went off this report alone, then the Federal Reserve would be putting rates up today, but that is clearly not the case with the May trade balance and dovish (yet largely redundant) set of FOMC minutes keeping the growth bulls in check.feedback

Calmer heads seem to have prevailed in the U.S. and we are once again seeing a situation where the U.S. economy is seemingly looking OK, while the U.K. and Europe are showing increasing signs of fragility.feedback

The polls were not supposed to influence as much as they have. Overnight, we have seen a rampant position adjustment and an unwind of 'Brexit' hedges.feedback

It just doesn't feel right, but I was always taught that an asset at all-time highs, or even 52-week highs, is outright bullish and should be traded as such - but no one believes we are here. many in the market are clinging to the first-quarter macro concerns (China yuan devaluation, low oil, low growth/recession, negative interest rate policy concerns and deflation fears) that they have missed the move higher.feedback

The feeling on the floors is that the move higher in risk assets still has legs, but there is a healthy degree of skepticism and there are a number of longs waiting to reverse to short or increase cash allocations should prices show even the slightest hint of rolling over.feedback

We have not yet reached the point where the market internals are highly suggestive of contrarian short positions. But the market is in need of some injection of new news to provide an injection of inspiration and cause a new leg higher. It seems unlikely this inspiration comes from today's U.S. payrolls.feedback

Asian stocks have flown out of the gate and there almost feels like we could be seeing the start of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) trading. To many, losing money is only moderately worse than missing an opportunity and the flows today have been reminiscent of this phenomenon.feedback

The noise around potential production cuts is hugely elevated; if we don't see a cohesive response in a month or so, the speculators will no doubt start to ramp up short positions again.feedback

These markets need a strong shake up and sharp downside move, followed by a wave of buying to settle things down. But until that comes there will be no clarity, absolutely no confidence and a bucket load of concern. There's concern the volatility will feed through into real economics and central banks will be pretty much powerless to stop it.feedback

For those who have traded the overnight move, it almost feels like something big is brewing, similar to 24 August and the quasi-flash crash capitulation move we saw.feedback

Despite talk last year that the so-called National Team were not going to directly intervene in stocks, this idea seems to have reversed.feedback

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