Chris Williamson - Markit

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Last quote by Chris Williamson

The fact we have maintained this high level in May is great news for second quarter GDP.feedback
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NEW May 23 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Chris Williamson is associated, including UK and France. Most recently, Chris Williamson has been quoted saying: “The encouraging picture from the survey data is likely to help raise many forecasters' expectations of eurozone economic growth in 2017.” in the article European markets get a lift from perceived Macron debate win.
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Chris Williamson quotes

The increasingly broad-based nature of the upturn also bodes well for strong growth to be sustained in coming months. Perhaps the best news came from France, where growth has risen above that seen in Germany, led by strengthening domestic demand. While elections remain a worry regarding the outlook, for now the business mood in France and across much of Europe is very positive.feedback

There is a nice broad-based strengthening of the euro zone economy, this is a really solid rate of expansion. It's an economy firing on all cylinders.feedback

While elections remain a worry regarding the outlook, for now the business mood in France and across much of Europe is very positive. The eurozone economy's throttle opened further in March.feedback

What we are picking up is an increase in suppliers' ability to hike prices due to strong demand. If that continues to intensify the ECB should become more worried.feedback

The consumer, which has provided the main engine of UK economic growth in recent years, is showing signs of running out of steam. Looking at the underlying trend, retail sales are falling at the fastest rate for seven years as households struggle with rising prices and subdued pay growth.feedback

The acceleration in growth, employment and prices signaled by the survey suggest that analysts will begin to pull forward their expectations of when the ECB could begin tapering its stimulus.feedback

The February index reading is broadly indicative of global manufacturing output growing at a robust annual rate of 4-5%.feedback

Weaker consumer spending was a key cause of slower service sector growth, suggesting that household budgets are starting to crack under the strain of higher prices and weak wage growth.feedback

The final PMI numbers paint a bright picture of a euro zone economy starting to fire on all cylinders. Growth accelerated in all of the four largest member states in February to suggest an increasingly sustainable and robust-looking upturn. However, it seems likely that central bank rhetoric will remain dovish in coming months, focusing on the headwinds that the economy faces in 2017, and specifically the need for policy to remain accommodative in the face of political uncertainty.feedback

The acceleration in growth, employment and prices signaled by the surveys suggests that analysts will begin to pull forward their expectations of when the ECB could begin tapering its stimulus.feedback

Euro area manufacturers are reporting the strongest production and order book growth for almost six years, in what's looking like an increasingly robust upturn.feedback

On the price front, not only are higher commodity prices and the weak euro pushing up firms' costs, but there's also growing evidence of a sellers' market developing for many goods as demand exceeds supply, which suggests core inflationary pressures may be starting to rise.feedback

The eurozone economy moved up a gear in February. With inflows of new orders also surging and firms becoming even more optimistic about the year ahead, growth could even lift higher in coming months. France's revival represents a much-needed broadening out of the region's recovery and bodes well for the eurozone's upturn to become more self-sustaining.feedback

The ECB will be cheered by the signs of stronger growth and further upturn in price pressures, though will no doubt remain concerned that elections and Brexit could disrupt the business environment this year.feedback

No change in policy therefore looks likely until at least after the German elections in September.feedback

With jobs being created at the fastest rate since the global financial crisis, it certainly seems that companies are looking to expand and are not overly concerned about how business might be affected by political uncertainty. There remains a significant risk of political events subduing or even derailing the upturn, meaning we retain a cautious outlook for the eurozone, with GDP likely to rise by only 1.5 percent this year.feedback

Euro zone manufacturing is off to a strong start to the year. Optimism about the year ahead has risen to the highest since the region's debt crisis, suggesting companies are maintaining a buoyant mood despite the heightened political uncertainty caused by Brexit and looming general elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany.feedback

Inflationary pressures are also picking up. Much of the increase in costs and prices can be linked to the weakened exchange rate and higher global commodity prices. However, there are also signs of demand running ahead of supply, which hints at a tentative build-up of core inflationary pressures.feedback

Firms' expectations about the year ahead are running at the highest for at least four-and-a-half years, highlighting how political risk continues to be widely eschewed, with companies focusing instead on expanding their sales in the coming year.feedback

The euro zone economy has started 2017 on a strong note. The January flash PMI is signalling respectable quarterly GDP growth of 0.4 percent with a broad-based expansion across both manufacturing and services.feedback

The ECB's communication could be tested as early as the March meeting when data will likely have improved further boosting the inflation forecast and spurring calls for an end to unconventional measures.feedback

To put the PMI data into perspective, the five-and-a-half-year high reached in December is broadly consistent with factory output growing at an impressive annual rate of approximately 4 percent.feedback

A buoyant service sector adds to signs that the UK economy continues to defy widely-held expectations of a Brexit-driven slowdown.feedback

Manufacturers and, to a lesser extent, service sector companies are benefiting from the weaker euro, which is both boosting goods exports and encouraging demand for services exports such as tourism.feedback

Euro zone manufacturers are entering 2017 on a strong footing, having ended 2016 with a surge in production. To put the PMI data into perspective, the five-and-a-half-year high reached in December is broadly consistent with factory output growing at an impressive annual rate of approximately four percent.feedback

Policymakers will be doubly pleased to see the manufacturing sector's improved outlook being accompanied by rising price pressures.feedback

Euro zone manufacturers are entering 2017 on a strong footing, having ended 2016 with a surge in production. To put the PMI data into perspective, the five-and-a-half-year high reached in December is broadly consistent with factory output growing at an impressive annual rate of approximately 4 percent.feedback

These higher costs will inevitably feed through to consumers in the form of higher prices.feedback

The pace of UK economic growth remains resiliently robust in the fourth quarter, despite ongoing uncertainty caused by Brexit.feedback

While the ECB looks poised to extend its quantitative easing program at its December meeting, the upturn in growth and inflationary pressures will further fuel talk of whether we could see the ECB start tapering its asset purchases next year.feedback

The preliminary PMI results for November indicate the sharpest monthly increase in business activity so far this year, with plenty of signs that growth will continue to accelerate.feedback

What's especially encouraging to see is the build-up of uncompleted orders, which showed the largest rise since May 2011.feedback

Average prices charged for good and services showed the biggest rise for over five years, albeit with the rate of increase being very modest. However, with indicators such as rising backlogs of work and longer supplier delivery times suggesting demand is exceeding supply, price pressures look set to intensify further in coming months.feedback

It seems that the only remaining obstacle to the Fed hiking in December would be a significant adverse financial market reaction to the U.S. presidential election.feedback

The euro zone economy showed renewed signs of life at the start of the fourth quarter, enjoying its strongest expansion so far this year with the promise of more to come.feedback

As such, the economy remains vulnerable to further setbacks and the need for policy action later in the year cannot be ruled out.feedback

We see this trend persisting into next year, as the impact of Brexit is exacerbated by uncertainty surrounding elections in France and Germany alongside ongoing political unrest in Italy and Spain.feedback

The key message from the September survey is that the euro area's manufacturing economy continues to expand at an encouragingly solid pace. The concern is that the upturn is worryingly uneven.feedback

The survey data will fuel expectations that the ECB would prefer not to wait before injecting more stimulus into the economy, adding pressure for policymakers to act later this week to help shore up confidence in both the outlook for the economy and the bank's commitment to its inflation target.feedback

It remains too early to say whether August's upturn is a dead cat bounce or the start of a sustained post-shock recovery.feedback

The data-dependent Fed will most likely see the payroll numbers as taking pressure off any immediate need to hike interest rates.feedback

There are some warning lights flashing about the future.feedback

Policymakers will be quite encouraged that it is moving in a positive direction. It looks cautiously optimistic for the region in the face of the Brexit threat.feedback

The eurozone remains on a steady growth path in the third quarter, with no signs of the recovery being derailed by 'Brexit' uncertainty.feedback

In the face of the terrorist attack and the Brexit vote, to have the index coming up to 50.0 in a stable economy is perhaps a good result.feedback

There is a strong indication that Italy and Spain saw a deterioration in growth rates.feedback

It seems almost inevitable that the heightened uncertainty created by the referendum will cause a further pull-back in business and consumer activity in coming months, raising the prospect of a likely contraction of the economy in the second half of the year.feedback

There was some support to growth from the wider global economy, but the countering force of that is more political uncertainty, especially in France, but also in the wider euro area.feedback

While demand is just about growing strong enough to generate employment, it's not strong enough to give firms pricing power.feedback

Barring any disruption from the UK vote, it does look like this solid but unexciting growth will continue. Markit expects the economy to expand by 0.4 percent in the second quarter.feedback

The disappointing performance of manufacturing adds to suspicions that the pace of eurozone economic growth in the second quarter has cooled after a surprisingly brisk start to the year based on the latest estimate of GDP.feedback

The Bank stepped up its warnings about the potentially damaging impact of the UK leaving the EU. the Bank recognizes that their updated projections carry "huge uncertainty.feedback

The deterioration in April pushes the surveys into territory which has in the past seen the Bank of England start to worry about the need to revive growth.feedback

The survey data therefore so far show no signs of European Central Bank stimulus or the weaker euro helping to revive the manufacturing sector, at least for the euro area as a whole.feedback

For a region beleaguered by still-high overall unemployment, the fact that the upturn is generating more jobs is especially good news. The latest rise in factory payroll numbers was one of the best seen over the past four years.feedback

A welcome uptick in the final PMI numbers… is especially encouraging as it suggests the region saw little overall contagion from the UK's 'Brexit' vote.feedback

The survey is still indicating only a modest 0.3 percent quarterly rate of economic growth at the start of the third quarter. Such a meagre pace of expansion will inevitably fuel speculation about what the European Central Bank could and should do to boost growth, and when.feedback

Concerns are growing that the region is facing yet another year of sluggish growth in 2016, or even another downturn. Lacklustre domestic demand is being compounded by a worsening global picture.feedback

The ECB are going to have to do a lot more and as soon as it can. It could surprise many in terms of its aggressiveness.feedback

When you look at the forward indicators … they are all suggesting you are going to see another slowdown in March, which could take GDP growth down to 0.2 percent.feedback

On our measure, Germany is currently still looking at 0.3 percent growth in the first quarter. But of course much depends on what happens in March. If there is a further downturn then, we could easily see 0.2 percent growth and I think that's where we're heading.feedback

That's usually a sign that companies don't have enough backlogs of orders to deal with given current workforce numbers and they will look to cut their headcount to save money.feedback

We are looking at a picture of fundamentally weak demand in France both on the consumer side and business side.feedback

This is more like France flatlining rather than sliding into another recession.feedback

Growth of activity, order books and employment all lost momentum, but perhaps most worrying of all from a policymaker's perspective is the intensification of deflationary pressures.feedback

Firms also appear to be looking to brighter times ahead, with business confidence improving, linked in turn to backlogs of work rising at the fastest rate since the spring of 2011.feedback

The eurozone's manufacturing economy missed a beat at the start of the year. Growth of order books, exports and output all slowed. If the slowdown in business activity wasn't enough to worry policymakers, prices charged by producers fell at the fastest rate for a year to spur further concern about deflation becoming ingrained.feedback

These are good numbers. For the region as a whole you are looking at growth of 0.4-0.5 percent. You are not only seeing activity hitting highs but also employment, backlogs and new business. The caveat to that is it's not that different to what we have seen throughout the year, and the ECB is going to be disappointed with the growth rate given the stimulus already in place.feedback

It's a sign this growth is only taking place at the expense of margins. The ECB is not going to look at these numbers and think everything is alright. They are going to think it still needs a push.feedback

But history does tell us that these events tend to have a very short-lived impact.feedback

In some ways that's disappointing, but if you look at the bright side of that, a lot of it is companies restructuring, trying to be more efficient, more productive.feedback

We think the key reason for the slowing in services growth is due to the attacks.feedback

Weakness is centred in the region's core, with France's manufacturing sector still in decline and Germany only seeing very meagre growth.feedback

Eurozone factory activity more or less stagnated again in December, rounding off a year which saw an initial, promising-looking upturn fade away and stall in the second half of the year.feedback

Although they will want to wait and see what the ABS purchases do in terms of stimulating the economy, the danger is the longer you wait, the more entrenched the downturn becomes.feedback

There is just a lack of belief that the situation is going to improve any time soon. There is strong dissatisfaction with the government and its handling of the economy.feedback

Previously, we've seen Germany expand while other countries have contracted – notably Spain, Italy and France.feedback

The forward-looking indicators suggest there's risks to the downside for the contraction to gather pace.feedback

At the moment I can just see contraction, and potentially an increased rate of contraction as the year goes on unless more is done to stimulate growth and boost business and consumer confidence. Otherwise companies and households will move increasingly into cost-cutting measures.feedback

It's really quite disappointing. Given the deterioration in the political and financial market outlook there is really little hope from what we see that there is going to be a turnaround in the second quarter, and in fact more likely an increased weakening.feedback

Manufacturers look to be in for another tough year in 2013, though prospects have brightened a little, as producers should benefit from signs of stronger demand in key export markets such as the United States and China.feedback

The services economy saw one of its worst months since the recovery began three years ago, with the June survey showing signs of growth stalling. The services PMI probably cements the case for further stimulus from the Bank of England.feedback

Growth has practically ground to a halt even in Germany, and France has joined Italy and Spain in seeing a strong rate of economic decline.feedback

Whether the euro zone will sink back into recession in the first quarter remains highly uncertain. The periphery remains the major concern.feedback

It is not a great sign. There have been widespread job losses in the periphery, which you would expect. More worryingly there was virtually no job creation going on in France and in Germany the rate of growth has eased quite sharply.feedback

Despite the upturn, the fourth quarter saw the steepest contraction since the spring of 2009, and forward-looking indicators suggest that a further decline is on the cards for the first quarter of 2012.feedback

Most indicators seem to suggest it is going to get worse not better in the coming months. So there is a significant chance of a contraction in the fourth quarter.feedback

Even more disappointing is the steep drop in new business, which suggests that GDP will contract in the fourth quarter unless business and consumer confidence rally in coming weeks.feedback

You expect to see some dips and dives when they are at these sorts of heights so we are not particularly worried about the downturn in the manufacturing index, it's still at levels suggesting strong growth.feedback

France moved down a gear compared to much of last year, but nothing like what we're seeing outside where the periphery is close to stagnation.feedback

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