Last quote by Craig Johnson
Craig Johnson quotes
You can see after 2016 and 2015, you were in this kind of consolidation period, we finally broke out to new highs. And there's a new upward price channel that is emerging, examining a chart of the S&P 500.
Right now you've reached that measured objective and every time I see us reach this measured objective, you usually consolidate back and fill for a little bit.
This was the strongest Christmas Eve we've seen in a long time.
We had a major inflection point in retail demand occurring a few days after the election... [and] things have steadily gathered steam ever since then.
During the sell-off you'd seen back in January, February, we got a lot of pressure from sales, trading and everybody else that we had to cut our numbers.
So from our perspective, we don't think rising rates in here are going to be a problem for equity markets going forward, pointing to an. Rates are starting to move higher, and our forecast for 2017 is, we are calling for 3 to 3.25 [percent] on the 10-year bond yield, and we think equities are going to go along with it.
So you're starting to see some positive influence here in the consumer cyclical stocks.
You generally have a positive correlation, but there are periods of time when you get a negative correlation, and when it happens, it actually tends to be a very interesting entry point for the HYG.
We think there is going to be a continual pressure to buy offense and kind of pro-cyclical type names, and there is going to be a waning of money coming out of these utilities as that bond proxy trade is really coming off, from our perspective.
Initial reports show it's steady and not very busy at stores around the country.
What's happening is, we had a great relief rally that failed at $1,375.
We would continue to use any relief rallies to be lightening up on gold.
It looks like we have further downside left to go in gold.
This is substantial. And this is a clear change in psychology and sentiment in the market toward these areas, calling the current moves.
Short-term, they're going to pull back a little bit. But in the longer term, I think there's still more room to go.
So I'd be buying any pullbacks.
From our perspective, the election setup as a classic 'sell on the rumor and buy on the fact' trade as narrowing poll numbers left the market holding its (breath) leading up to Election Day. However, when the unknown variable was removed and Donald Trump became President-elect Donald Trump, investors realized that voters gave him a clear mandate for change (president and Congress).
From our perspective, despite who moves into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue this January, the market remains on solid footing, supported by both constructive fundamental and technical trends.
The recent price action that we've been seeing has been nothing but a relief rally. I think if you've got a Trump win, you've got a slight push higher, but it's going to have to take a move to about 1,350 or 1,400 to reverse that long-term downtrend.
This is an index that has already violated the uptrend support line that has been intact for the last 12 or 18 months, and you're not starting to put in a series of lower highs and lower lows.
It's going to rotate into other areas such as the financials.
They are not participating to the extent other people are.
About half of the weighting in this ETF is in 10 stocks, and those are all the large-cap names inside of this. It's the mid-, small-cap stocks inside of the biotech world that are doing the best, and the larger-cap names have been a lot weaker.
We're at a decade low in terms of shares outstanding, [which] means that the denominator, when we think about price over earnings ratios, is starting to shrink. So earnings are going to be better than what I think people are expecting.
I think this is a positive sign, and why we still think this structural bull market probably has more room to work as we think over the next couple of years.
If you take a look at the XLF, clearly there's a downtrend reversal that has occurred.
I'd look for some profit taking to come in at that point in time, look for the drift back a little bit. But ultimately, looking out six to 12 months, I see a retest of the highs you see in May of 2015, that would take the stock back up to about $130.
I don't think there'll be any extraordinary closures of the large-format stores.
They're each trying to address the small-basket shopping mission.
And at this point in time you can see a very well-defined channel that the shares have been in.
The chart has been a terrific trending stock over the last several years.
I know a lot of fund managers are going to be looking to put money back to work. This is going to give them the opportunity and the reason to do that.
Right now, this looks like a back-to-school sale from our perspective.
In our world, a 0 to 5 percent drop is noise, 5 to 10 percent is a pullback, 10 to 20 percent is a correction and 20 percent or more is a bear market.
I would move on to other names that look more attractive, like Apple, for example.
If you got to put it into a buy-sell-hold category, I am a hold. I would be a seller on a break below $180, because that's going to be a big change in sentiment toward the stock.
This thesis does seem to make some sense, but it works in a market that's sideways consolidating, and right now we're in a bull market, and we think there's going to be more upside ahead.
We're finding strength in the financial sector. Perhaps we're going to see a rate hike in November or December. Financials look good [and] they will benefit off of that, and a lot of the large-cap banks are turning higher.
Typically bonds lead equities.
We've now got the Dow, we've got the S&P and now we've got the Nasdaq making all-time new highs.
It looks like we're making kind of a classic bottoming-type pattern – left shoulder, head, right shoulder. We broke it above the neckline.
I think you got $2 to $3 on the downside back to about $40. But the last time I saw a setup like this was the bottom of the market at about 2008, 2009 on the S&P 500. That was a nine-month setup, and standing that measured objective up led to a very nice return in the markets.
Looking at this price objective [that's] standing it up, you could be between $70 to $75 in oil in about 12 months, based upon the top-line break in that neckline here.
Back-to-school shoppers in 2016 will be cautious in spending, but relentless in searching for value.
On that XLF, we need to see it close above about $24 to conclude that the uptrend that had been happening for a while is going to reassert itself.
When we downgraded financials [to neutral], we upgraded the basic materials sector to an overweight and we're starting to see a lot of interesting stocks and a lot of interesting industry groups there really starting to pick up.
These are all very good companies, it just might not be the time to be buying the individual stocks.
When you look at our longer-term chart going all the way back to the 1990s, you'll see that when we have a turn in the CRB index, usually you will see a turn in the CPI index six to 18 months later.
It's going to take a close above $40 to reverse a long-term downtrend we've seen.
For the first time in its history ... they're expecting sales to be flat this year. That's never happened.
I still hesitate to put too much emphasis on Penney's given how much business they lost and what they're building back.