Daniel Clifton

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Last quote by Daniel Clifton

Repatriation alone would boost earnings per share by $2.58 on the S&P 500 in 2018. If you have successful tax reform, you're looking at $7 to $8 of additional (earnings per share) in 2018 that isn't baked into earnings estimates right now.feedback
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Jun 04 2017 Trump Presidency
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Daniel Clifton is associated, including S&P, Hillary Clinton, and election. Most recently, Daniel Clifton has been quoted saying: “The madness happening in May, June, July and August will create a path forward for legislative activity in September, October and possibly tax reform in the first quarter of 2018, and that's where the opportunity is going to be.” in the article These Trump trade stock plays could make a big comeback.
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Daniel Clifton quotes

May 10 2017

Voters will continue to push out the party in power if they do not feel their standard of living is improving...The Republicans have been given a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to prove that getting productivity higher, via tax cuts and deregulation, can help lift GDP even if labor force growth is slowing.feedback

May 10 2017 - Trump Presidency

Passage of the Trump agenda, most notably with tax reform should help keep confidence elevated, but any undermining of confidence from political developments and/or the inability to enact the agenda could move the needle in the opposite direction.feedback

May 10 2017 - American politics

While distractions from investigations could hinder policy developments, our sense is that Republican members of Congress will want to speed up their policy achievements to overcome recent political developments. As such, Republican political troubles may serve as a catalyst for policy actions. From a political perspective, this is not enough growth to keep U.S. voters happy. In fact, U.S. voters have removed the party in power in five of the past six federal elections. This level of political volatility is very rare in U.S. history and it is the direct result of slower economic growth.feedback

Apr 25 2017 - Trump Presidency

Trump is pivoting away from the concept of deficit-neutral tax reform towards deficit-financed tax cuts. Trump is keeping his original plan of a 15 percent corporate tax rate, which is just a marker.feedback

Mar 17 2017

The big story in the market is whether the delays in health care reform are delaying tax reform. That's what everybody's focused on now.feedback

Mar 17 2017

This is just the normal legislative process. The Senate bill is going to be radically different than the House bill. If they are successful in passing the health care bill, there is $900 billion dollars of tax cuts.feedback

Feb 28 2017

What Trump really needs to do tonight is outline his broad vision and try and get those Republicans on board so that he can start healing those divisions and get that stalled agenda moving forward.feedback

Feb 27 2017 - Affordable Care Act

The market's worried that the Affordable Care Act is going to push tax reform down. getting some clarity around affordable care act could help.feedback

Feb 27 2017

I would think about whatever he's doing to do on infrastructure for '17 is a down payment for a bigger proposal that comes for '18. Our themes have been focus on the energy infrastructure and less on the highway infrastructure.feedback

Feb 27 2017 - Affordable Care Act

A key part to funding tax reform is the plan on the Affordable Care Act. … They have to get it done in this budget cycle. They have to get it done by Sept. 30. They probably will talk about March, April for repeal and replace. He's going to say, I'm going to invest in infrastructure. He's going to talk about getting those tax rates as low as possible, that he's going to deliver a tax cut for individuals and businesses. But he's not going to go into the specifics of capital expensing or how the substitute of Affordable Care Act is going to be.feedback

Feb 14 2017

You're going to get a lot of hand-wringing. It's slow, and it's going to be gradual. It's like 'Hunger Games' for tax lobbyists now. If you're negatively impacted by the border tax, you're pushing the net interest deductibility.feedback

Feb 12 2017

This is: They promise something big, but it's not meaty.feedback

Feb 12 2017

There's just uneasiness in the senate over this. This is going to be a roller coaster ride.feedback

Feb 09 2017

We have been surprised that our repatriation basket has not outperformed post-election since this tax change has the highest probability of being enacted.feedback

Feb 07 2017 - Immigration

Tax reform will take some time and will likely fail before it succeeds. But something is likely to happen on taxes by year-end and there is still a lot of value in our tax-related baskets. Our Trump baskets show government spending is largely priced in, but tax changes are not.feedback

Feb 02 2017

Hatch is now indicating that the Senate may pursue a separate tax reform bill from the House version, with the assumption being that a border adjustment tax cannot pass the Senate. That of course could change if Trump puts his weight behind the House bill, but we won't know that for a couple of weeks.feedback

Jan 31 2017 - Trump administration

Short-term political risk is building as the new [President Donald Trump] administration tries to get its footing. … We have repeatedly noted that new presidents usually struggle to get their footing early in their administration and equities are weak in February. Short-term headlines, which are negative, are colliding with an improved future outlook.feedback

Jan 27 2017 - Mexico

For all the noise of a border war and a possible trade war with Mexico, like anything else with Trump, look beneath the surface. Yesterday, Trump sent a signal that he was open to the Republican border-adjustable tax plan. We were told repeatedly no decisions have been made by Trump regarding the border-adjustable tax system. But Trump's repudiation of the tax two weeks ago seems to be old news and the tax idea is not dead.feedback

Jan 24 2017

There's other executive orders that speed up the environmental review process, and I believe that will open up the door to these other stalled projects going through.feedback

Jan 19 2017 - NAFTA

Tomorrow's going to be trade day, NAFTA, TPP withdraw and some stronger enforcement of trade deals.feedback

Jan 19 2017

It's going to be about growth and opportunity.feedback

Jan 14 2017 - Mexico

Investors have to understand that Donald Trump is going to go after China and he's going to go after Mexico, but for different reasons. … He's telling you this is a priority of his. He's going to tell you he's getting tougher on China. That could be labeling them a currency manipulation threat. There could be a tariff on Chinese goods. That's the risk to the downside.feedback

Jan 14 2017 - Supreme Court

Trump wants to move quickly on several key items – Obamacare repeal, tax reform, the Supreme Court nominee, the wall funding and infrastructure. He will have to use the inauguration speech when he has the bully pulpit to make the case these should get done, and they should get done quickly. Congress does not move at a very fast pace. Trump moves, from the business world, at a fast pace.feedback

Dec 28 2016

If you don't get the dollar adjustment, you're going to get the inflation from higher costs. There's a lot of people rumbling about a stronger dollar, and for this to work it's got to adjust. The retailers will get clobbered if there's not an adjustment.feedback

Dec 21 2016

Number one, Donald Trump says he's going to do tariffs, but this is a way of doing tariffs but in a less hurtful way. It begins to create incentives for companies to come back to the U.S. It also gives you a ton of tax revenues that could be used to get the corporate tax rate lower.feedback

Dec 16 2016

In 2003, when Congress cut the capital gains tax, the provision was made retroactive to the first committee hearing in March. So be careful just selling on January 1st, depending on when Congress acts, the provision may not be in effect at the exact start of 2017.feedback

Dec 16 2016 - Obamacare

We would not be surprised if investors are waiting until next year to realize their gains. Republicans are proposing to lower the capital gains and dividend taxes from 23.8 to 20 percent as part of Obamacare repeal and again cut the tax to a 16.5 percent rate as part of tax reform.feedback

Nov 29 2016 - Dodd-Frank Act

They're going to try and pass two pieces of legislation before Trump is even president. First, the Keystone Pipeline gets approved. And two, to repeal Obamacare without replacing it so that Donald Trump can sign those bills immediately becoming president.feedback

Nov 29 2016 - Dodd-Frank Act

As soon as Trump gets here, Cabinet gets settled, you're going to see all the discussion moving to tax reform, infrastructure, fiscal policy and defense spending.feedback

Nov 29 2016 - Dodd-Frank Act

Financials is a good place to be, but don't think that Dodd-Frank will be repealed.feedback

Nov 17 2016 - Federal Reserve

I think it's going to be a lot of battling. … Donald Trump wins the election and all of a sudden interest rates start to go higher, and people think the economy is going to get better. …The market is starting to like this and she's going to be caught up in questions about why this is happening.feedback

Nov 17 2016 - Federal Reserve

You're going to hear a lot about infrastructure spending. You're going to hear a lot about tax reform. This is the first debate we're going to have on public policy for 2017.feedback

Nov 09 2016

Trump has won and the lame duck session of Congress is starting. The market is going to focus on what can Trump do? Is he going to act on trade policy by executive order?feedback

Nov 09 2016

The personnel from this administration is going to be far more important than the previous administration. Barack Obama was a policy guy and he set direction. Donald Trump is a big vision guy.feedback

Nov 09 2016

People are scared, and they are looking for some sort of certainty and this is going to take some time to work through that. People are going to want to know who he's going to pick for his Cabinet. I think people are going to freak out. They're going to worry about foreign actors.feedback

Nov 09 2016 - UBS

All of a sudden the market looks nervous. Viriginia, Georgia, those are signs that this is going to be a close race if you're not calling them.feedback

Nov 04 2016 - American politics

The FBI report of new emails from Hillary Clinton's private server has turned the election from a referendum on Trump to a referendum on Clinton. ... In our meetings this week in NY and Boston, it was clear to us that investors are not prepared for a Republican sweep.feedback

Oct 31 2016 - UBS

I think the market is telling you, it's not someone that's going to have a blowout win.feedback

Oct 31 2016

We've now gotten this black swan event on Friday. It may have impact, it may not have any impact.feedback

Sep 23 2016

You have 100 million people watching. You have a race that is basically tied right now, and you have deep concerns over both candidates that are going to be in the debate. They are two of the most unpopular candidates for president in modern polling history.feedback

Sep 23 2016

We think sectors are important for elections. There's a little bit more macro risk to this election because of Trump on trade. If Trump came in, by executive order which he could do, and put tariffs on all imports, that would be terrible for the markets.feedback

Sep 23 2016

Stocks usually rally if the incumbent party wins. If Hillary puts Trump away at this debate, you'll see a broad rally in the S&P 500, and my thinking on Trump is if Trump wins, you're going to get a sell-off into the election. It's temporary. There's just so much uncertainty with Trump, people are just going to go to a risk-off scenario.feedback

Sep 23 2016

This is an event that could move the needle in one direction or other.feedback

Sep 09 2016

At one point, the Democratic portfolio was outperforming the Republican portfolio by 10 percent.feedback

Sep 09 2016

If you see the Republicans are going to possibly win this election, you'll probably see some more rotation to defense.feedback

Sep 09 2016

Our Strategas infrastructure basket ... is up 25 percent year to date, clearly outperforming the S&P 500. The market has begun to price in the infrastructure stocks.feedback

Sep 09 2016

The market has been pricing in a closer election all summer. And now the polls are starting to catch up with what investors had been sensing in the month of August.feedback

Sep 09 2016

The Democratic portfolio is outperforming the Republican portfolio by about 3 percent year to date.feedback

Sep 09 2016

[But] we are starting to see the infrastructure stocks slightly underperform the S&P 500 as Hillary Clinton's probability of winning has gone down in the last couple of weeks or so.feedback

Sep 09 2016

Slowly the Republican portfolio has been outperforming [since then].feedback

Sep 06 2016 - Democratic Party

The Democrat portfolio is outperforming by 3 percent year-to-date, so it's saying Hillary has a slight advantage, but the portfolio had been up by 10 percent.feedback

Sep 06 2016

You're seeing those stocks really catching a bid. A lot of this is anti-Hillary stuff. She's talking about a financial transaction tax.feedback

Sep 06 2016

Stock sectors that reflect a Clinton victory have been under-performing.feedback

Sep 06 2016

That's important because she was winning by 8 in that poll after the Democratic convention.feedback

Sep 06 2016

The infrastructure stocks which have been up a lot all year have started to underperform. That's a proxy for Hillary.feedback

Sep 06 2016

As her probability of being elected goes up, biotech stocks underperform the S&P 500. What's been happening as her probability goes up, biotechs go down, and as her probability goes down, biotech goes up. It's been a roller coaster ride throughout the election.feedback

Aug 05 2016

We are less than 100 days away from the election and the dynamics of the presidential race are changing. But after a great Democratic convention and Trump's meltdown, Clinton is opening a lead that justifies the higher probability of winning. ... An 8-10 point Clinton victory will put pressure on Republican control of the House, which changes the investment implications of the election.feedback

Aug 02 2016

The most efficient way to do that is to impose a one-time tax on the existing foreign profits overseas which will free up the cash for companies to use for dividends, share repurchases, M&A, capital expenditures, and to pay down debt.feedback

Jul 20 2016

Defense spending is going up regardless of who is president. The market is making that bet now. If Hillary wins, it's already priced in. … If Donald wins it gets that next upside. There would also be an increase in cybersecurity expenditures.feedback

Jul 20 2016

Freeport McMoRan is positively correlated to Republicans.feedback

Jul 18 2016

The markets have two minds. We have been rallying post-Brexit because it is clear global policymakers are going to go for fiscal policy no matter who gets elected. But you also have this popularism.feedback

Jul 18 2016

That would mean breaking away commercial and investment banking and that could have larger implications for the large banks and investment banks. It doesn't mean it's going to go through but it's where Donald Trump wants to lead the party should he win election.feedback

Jul 18 2016 - Federal Reserve

The platform is very much traditional Republican sectors, outside the banking stuff. It's tough on the Federal Reserve too.feedback

May 25 2016

At one point, he was talking about taking away subsidies from oil companies. But he's evolved so where [Continental Resources CEO] Harold Hamm has now endorsed him.feedback

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