Daniel Clifton


Last quote by Daniel Clifton

The big story in the market is whether the delays in health care reform are delaying tax reform. That's what everybody's focused on now.
Mar 17 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Daniel Clifton is associated, including S&P, Hillary Clinton, and election. Most recently, Daniel Clifton has been quoted saying: “This is just the normal legislative process. The Senate bill is going to be radically different than the House bill. If they are successful in passing the health care bill, there is $900 billion dollars of tax cuts.” in the article This is why Washington wrangling could become a bigger deal in the week ahead.
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Daniel Clifton quotes

Tax reform will take some time and will likely fail before it succeeds. But something is likely to happen on taxes by year-end and there is still a lot of value in our tax-related baskets. Our Trump baskets show government spending is largely priced in, but tax changes are not.

Hatch is now indicating that the Senate may pursue a separate tax reform bill from the House version, with the assumption being that a border adjustment tax cannot pass the Senate. That of course could change if Trump puts his weight behind the House bill, but we won't know that for a couple of weeks.

Short-term political risk is building as the new [President Donald Trump] administration tries to get its footing. … We have repeatedly noted that new presidents usually struggle to get their footing early in their administration and equities are weak in February. Short-term headlines, which are negative, are colliding with an improved future outlook.

For all the noise of a border war and a possible trade war with Mexico, like anything else with Trump, look beneath the surface. Yesterday, Trump sent a signal that he was open to the Republican border-adjustable tax plan. We were told repeatedly no decisions have been made by Trump regarding the border-adjustable tax system. But Trump's repudiation of the tax two weeks ago seems to be old news and the tax idea is not dead.

There's other executive orders that speed up the environmental review process, and I believe that will open up the door to these other stalled projects going through.

Tomorrow's going to be trade day, NAFTA, TPP withdraw and some stronger enforcement of trade deals.

Investors have to understand that Donald Trump is going to go after China and he's going to go after Mexico, but for different reasons. … He's telling you this is a priority of his. He's going to tell you he's getting tougher on China. That could be labeling them a currency manipulation threat. There could be a tariff on Chinese goods. That's the risk to the downside.

Trump wants to move quickly on several key items – Obamacare repeal, tax reform, the Supreme Court nominee, the wall funding and infrastructure. He will have to use the inauguration speech when he has the bully pulpit to make the case these should get done, and they should get done quickly. Congress does not move at a very fast pace. Trump moves, from the business world, at a fast pace.

If you don't get the dollar adjustment, you're going to get the inflation from higher costs. There's a lot of people rumbling about a stronger dollar, and for this to work it's got to adjust. The retailers will get clobbered if there's not an adjustment.

Number one, Donald Trump says he's going to do tariffs, but this is a way of doing tariffs but in a less hurtful way. It begins to create incentives for companies to come back to the U.S. It also gives you a ton of tax revenues that could be used to get the corporate tax rate lower.

In 2003, when Congress cut the capital gains tax, the provision was made retroactive to the first committee hearing in March. So be careful just selling on January 1st, depending on when Congress acts, the provision may not be in effect at the exact start of 2017.

We would not be surprised if investors are waiting until next year to realize their gains. Republicans are proposing to lower the capital gains and dividend taxes from 23.8 to 20 percent as part of Obamacare repeal and again cut the tax to a 16.5 percent rate as part of tax reform.

They're going to try and pass two pieces of legislation before Trump is even president. First, the Keystone Pipeline gets approved. And two, to repeal Obamacare without replacing it so that Donald Trump can sign those bills immediately becoming president.

As soon as Trump gets here, Cabinet gets settled, you're going to see all the discussion moving to tax reform, infrastructure, fiscal policy and defense spending.

I think it's going to be a lot of battling. … Donald Trump wins the election and all of a sudden interest rates start to go higher, and people think the economy is going to get better. …The market is starting to like this and she's going to be caught up in questions about why this is happening.

You're going to hear a lot about infrastructure spending. You're going to hear a lot about tax reform. This is the first debate we're going to have on public policy for 2017.

Trump has won and the lame duck session of Congress is starting. The market is going to focus on what can Trump do? Is he going to act on trade policy by executive order?

The personnel from this administration is going to be far more important than the previous administration. Barack Obama was a policy guy and he set direction. Donald Trump is a big vision guy.

People are scared, and they are looking for some sort of certainty and this is going to take some time to work through that. People are going to want to know who he's going to pick for his Cabinet. I think people are going to freak out. They're going to worry about foreign actors.

All of a sudden the market looks nervous. Viriginia, Georgia, those are signs that this is going to be a close race if you're not calling them.

The FBI report of new emails from Hillary Clinton's private server has turned the election from a referendum on Trump to a referendum on Clinton. ... In our meetings this week in NY and Boston, it was clear to us that investors are not prepared for a Republican sweep.

I think the market is telling you, it's not someone that's going to have a blowout win.

We've now gotten this black swan event on Friday. It may have impact, it may not have any impact.

You have 100 million people watching. You have a race that is basically tied right now, and you have deep concerns over both candidates that are going to be in the debate. They are two of the most unpopular candidates for president in modern polling history.

We think sectors are important for elections. There's a little bit more macro risk to this election because of Trump on trade. If Trump came in, by executive order which he could do, and put tariffs on all imports, that would be terrible for the markets.

Stocks usually rally if the incumbent party wins. If Hillary puts Trump away at this debate, you'll see a broad rally in the S&P 500, and my thinking on Trump is if Trump wins, you're going to get a sell-off into the election. It's temporary. There's just so much uncertainty with Trump, people are just going to go to a risk-off scenario.

This is an event that could move the needle in one direction or other.

At one point, the Democratic portfolio was outperforming the Republican portfolio by 10 percent.

If you see the Republicans are going to possibly win this election, you'll probably see some more rotation to defense.

Our Strategas infrastructure basket ... is up 25 percent year to date, clearly outperforming the S&P 500. The market has begun to price in the infrastructure stocks.

The market has been pricing in a closer election all summer. And now the polls are starting to catch up with what investors had been sensing in the month of August.

The Democratic portfolio is outperforming the Republican portfolio by about 3 percent year to date.

[But] we are starting to see the infrastructure stocks slightly underperform the S&P 500 as Hillary Clinton's probability of winning has gone down in the last couple of weeks or so.

Slowly the Republican portfolio has been outperforming [since then].

The Democrat portfolio is outperforming by 3 percent year-to-date, so it's saying Hillary has a slight advantage, but the portfolio had been up by 10 percent.

You're seeing those stocks really catching a bid. A lot of this is anti-Hillary stuff. She's talking about a financial transaction tax.

Stock sectors that reflect a Clinton victory have been under-performing.

That's important because she was winning by 8 in that poll after the Democratic convention.

The infrastructure stocks which have been up a lot all year have started to underperform. That's a proxy for Hillary.

As her probability of being elected goes up, biotech stocks underperform the S&P 500. What's been happening as her probability goes up, biotechs go down, and as her probability goes down, biotech goes up. It's been a roller coaster ride throughout the election.

We are less than 100 days away from the election and the dynamics of the presidential race are changing. But after a great Democratic convention and Trump's meltdown, Clinton is opening a lead that justifies the higher probability of winning. ... An 8-10 point Clinton victory will put pressure on Republican control of the House, which changes the investment implications of the election.

The most efficient way to do that is to impose a one-time tax on the existing foreign profits overseas which will free up the cash for companies to use for dividends, share repurchases, M&A, capital expenditures, and to pay down debt.

Defense spending is going up regardless of who is president. The market is making that bet now. If Hillary wins, it's already priced in. … If Donald wins it gets that next upside. There would also be an increase in cybersecurity expenditures.

The markets have two minds. We have been rallying post-Brexit because it is clear global policymakers are going to go for fiscal policy no matter who gets elected. But you also have this popularism.

That would mean breaking away commercial and investment banking and that could have larger implications for the large banks and investment banks. It doesn't mean it's going to go through but it's where Donald Trump wants to lead the party should he win election.

The platform is very much traditional Republican sectors, outside the banking stuff. It's tough on the Federal Reserve too.

At one point, he was talking about taking away subsidies from oil companies. But he's evolved so where [Continental Resources CEO] Harold Hamm has now endorsed him.

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