Daniel Gros


Last quote by Daniel Gros

Brexiters will think the cost of no deal is low, industry and remainders will think the opposite. Depending on who is stronger this could lead to a more cautious approach.feedback
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Mar 17 2017 Brexit
The latest quote from Daniel Gros is: “Everything contributed a little bit (to populism). We had of course globalization which was overhyped; then we had the financial crisis and we dealt with it but not perfectly; and all throughout, there was this continuous rise of giving more and more attention to the minorities and at a certain time the majority says 'Hey, we would like to come to the picture as well'”. It comes from the How Trump needs to manage his growing brand of populism article. You’ll find on this page 28 articles with Daniel Gros quoted on topics such as U.S. and fight. Daniel Gros has been quoted 38 times in 28 articles.
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Daniel Gros quotes

It's a very important question. Today I think austerity is no longer needed because the adjustment is almost over. But of course, over the last ten years, over the last fiver years rather, Portugal had to undertake very important austerity measures and a part of the middle class has to be sacrificed.feedback

I think that the largest responsibility for that lies with the government of Cyprus which has portrayed the German government and the troika as the bad guys, which wanted to impose losses on the people of Cyprus, where in fact the opposite was the case.feedback

No, the risk of contagion should be quite limited. The case of Cyprus was really unique in several aspects. Luxembourg has also very large banks, but with one crucial difference: the banks in Luxembourg are all owned by other banks in the eurozone. So the Luxembourg government will never be responsible for anything that happens in Luxembourg. So, savers' in large countries like Italy or Spain should have no fear and therefore there should be no noticeable contagion.feedback

This was, if you want, the least bad solution the people of Cyprus could expect, because with the losses now being taken by the creditors of the banks, that means the people of Cyprus will not have to pay taxes to make up for these losses. That the economy would shrink, that there would be loss of employment, we knew. But that is inherent in the fact that the business model of Cyprus has been destroyed and Cyprus will take time to recover.feedback

In the future, the ECB will be in charge of the supervision. It will know all the detailed information needed to have negotiations like this. It will be available for the troika and therefore, they will say, under these conditions, we can go into this project of a banking union because the dangers for us – as German taxpayers – are very limited.feedback

It was necessary to have some theatre, so that Cyprus could actually show that they could say no, and the parliament of Cyprus did say no, but then thought, if we say no, then the cost for the economy will be extremely high. So, in the end, they agreed to a solution that keeps the damage to a minimum.feedback

Yes and no is the answer. With regard to Italy, it doesn't only matter whether or not the reform package that has been announced is implemented. But it matters greatly whether the country truly supports these measures. If the package is adopted by a small majority in parliament, but if the social partners (management and labour) are unwilling to make further concessions, then it would not be enough. If, on the other hand, there was a huge majority in parliament and if the unions said, We want to make contributions' as well, then it would be enough. And that could end the crisis quickly.feedback

The markets would like to see something which makes fiscal policy less dependent on the political majority of the day. And therefore it is useful to have something like this in the constitution because it means that there is no longer this constant daily watching over what is going on in the fiscal policy. It gives the investors some reason to think that, over time, things will become better.feedback

We would really hope to see a change, in the sense that the next person should be selected on merit and that the Europeans should realise that while they are the biggest shareholders, they are also the biggest debtors now so they no longer have the right to nominate that person.feedback

The UK of course has a very difficult fiscal position on its own. But it's still triple-A rated because the markets still think that the UK in the end will be able to tough it out. The sums the UK might lend to Ireland are really marginal compared to the overall fiscal picture in the UK.feedback

It is very likely that other governments will see that the Germans have a point. Right now we do not have a procedure for restructuring the debt of a country in really big difficulties.feedback

The EU don't have a strategic partnership with China as the US has. The Chinese consider the EU as a nice large market, but not something that is politically important for them.feedback

Here the message has been quite clear from Athens: We don't want to do it on our own. And Germans say: We don't understand, you can get the money and you have to face the market.feedback

Implicitly, the EU wants to say: Look, we bailed out Greece, it means they we will also bail out Portugal, Spain and other countries, if there were a need for it. We very much hope there will ne no need. And the question is: Will financial markets test that statement or not?feedback

As in any other crisis the question is who has the money, who has the financial power to intervene, and in the end we come back to the key role of Germany, because that's at present the only country which has some resources left and which could intervene with a substantial fund.feedback

This choice might not be too bad in the end, because it comes from somebody who knows how much German industry especially the German industry which is in the southwest of Germany depends on Europe and global markets.feedback

In a sense German conservatism, has become even more conservative, even more cautious. By governing together with the SPD and sticking very much to the centre it has remained popular, and that ecourages even more conservatism. The SPD in a certain sense has now become more left[ist], and therefore they are focussing more on important schemes like the financial system and saving jobs.feedback

There is a fundamental misunderstanding, in the sense that in the USA households are saving more so the government must spend more so that demand doesn't fall down to much. In Europe households are actually not saving much more, so in Europe there is not so much a big need for a fiscal stimulus. And probably in most of continental Europe a fiscal stimulus would not have a big impact because if the government gives households more money probably they are going to save it.feedback

There's a part of the De La Rosière report, namely the creation of a European Systemic Council, and the key aspect of this Council would be that it would have detailed information, also confidential information, on the state of health of every bank in Europe.feedback

The only thing that could be done would be to recast the governance of the IMF, the World Bank and the other international financial institutions. But here the solution is very simple, everybody knows it. We need to have a Euro area seat at the IMF with a much smaller share and a much larger share for China.feedback

It's clear that in every national capital people think: 'Our banking system is safe, we don't want to pay for the others.' As long as most people and most finance ministers think that, they will not agree in a European aproach. What they don't see is that everybody can have problems, and quite quickly, because if one large bank fails in one country – even if it's not in its own country – problems can spread very quickly indeed.feedback

In Europe we certainly need a plan for the European banking system. We don't need the Paulson plan, we need a different approach in Europe.feedback

This is something that cannot be resolved in six months. It will take years to develop, especially to see how the European Union can actually implement a policy that will influence developments in the Arabic states.feedback

The main problem right now is the high price of oil and there is just nothing the EU can do to help the price of oil go down. Just having a tax change here and there, just shifts the burden from one consumer to another. It does not really contribute to a solution of the problem and this would be very dangerous if Sarkozy tries to push the EU towards that kind of solution.feedback

The key challenge for the French president might be to have patience: there is not a lot the French can do to influence events in the Czech Republic and in Poland, the ratification is still outstanding, and in Ireland itself. But if they wait out and are lucky, by the end of the year, we might have a solution with the Irish problem in the sense that a second Irish referendum might soon be about and might go through.feedback

It is likely actually that there will be movement on the constitutional front because Sarkozy wants to have a success, and the easiest way to have a success at the European level is to give the Germans something: Something means a mini-treaty at least, and a treaty with which Gordon Brown can live with as well.feedback

There would be trouble in adapting on both sides – in the east as in the west, in the older and the newer member states. There will be differences according to each sector. There may be some small areas where manpower counts the most, and there the older members will have more difficulties. In other sectors it won't be the cost of labour that counts but quality, training and structure. There the older members would have the advantage. Clear differentiations must be made on this question.feedback

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