Last quote by Daniel Yergin
Daniel Yergin quotes
We'll hear a lot from other countries as they try to sort out what Trump policies will be and how to reshape their polices to adjust to it.
It's interesting the Chinese president will be there, and he's going to be, from all the signs, the most important international speaker there. It's the first time, I believe, the Chinese president has ever come.
Mexico has become a very important market for U.S. gas producers and without it, we'd be looking at lower prices.
Instead of Mexico spending a fortune building new refineries, they are buying from the U.S., and it turns out energy exports are now an important contributor to the jobs in our economy.
It was a business relationship. The whole Russian thing is so much front and center now so it's inevitable that those questions be asked but, obviously, if you are a major oil company, you want to go to where your resources (are). You have to replace your reserves.
He is a straight arrow. If that's his mission, that's what he'll do.
I think the Saudi minister has been very explicit now for over a year, warning that the under-investment could lead to a fly up in prices before the end of the decade, and that is something they don't want to see. They recognize that low prices are a big problem, but so are high prices – if you're a long-term supplier – because it erodes demand and encourages alternatives.
They need a decent oil price, and they need to maintain market share. Part of the great irony of Vision 2030 is that in order to diversify the Saudi economy away from oil, they need to sell oil.
I think there's a 70 percent chance they'll get an agreement. That's how I rate it. If it breaks down, it will be much more over Iran than Iraq. All of them are feeling the revenue pressures. The market is rebalancing, but it's taking longer than expected.
The outcome of the U.S. election adds to the challenges for the oil exporters because it will likely lead to weaker economic growth in an already fragile global economy. And that means additional pressure on oil demand.
I think the price will wobble, but it certainly keeps more support than walking away with nothing. What I think is this will be a process. This isn't even an official OPEC meeting, and it buys them time. It's them negotiating to negotiate.
You see postponements, delays and cancellations, so you're going to see as supply-demand balance that's going to be different over the next couple of years. The question now is of course struggling with price, but in three, four, five years, how are we going to meet 5 or 6 million barrels a day of new demand growth?
I think the pre-eminent thing is about maintaining market share.
We still expect one way or the other, the price looks like it will be at that $40 to $50 range in the second half of the year. With the freeze, it would have gotten there earlier ... there's a question about Kuwait, declining U.S. production. Declines elsewhere just because investment slowed down.
What this does is it restates Saudi Arabia's pre-eminence in the world oil market – it has a unique position and flexibility that nobody else has. The current mantra is 'Let the market manage the market,' and the phrase they'll use is 'We'll produce the barrels our customers want.' What this does is it reasserts their power in the world oil market.
The big decision from Riyadh is to take decision-making away from the exporters and leave it to the market.
By some time in the summer, it will be down to 8.3 million barrels a day.
In 2014, OPEC revenues were about a trillion dollars. Last year, they were half a trillion dollars. This year they're on a course to be down another 20 percent. This creates inordinate pressure on governments. Very difficult choices have to be made. Budgets have to be cut, credit ratings go down. There is a risk of social turmoil and problems. I think that is really weighing on producers, forcing them to find some way to stabilize things.
There's a lot of rhetoric, a lot of statements around the oil market, but the fundamental thing you have to look at is money. It's revenues, and the revenues of these countries that export oil have really collapsed.
I think with all the countries gathering, if there is not an agreement, prices will fall sharply and for each of them, it means new pain in their budget. It will hurt them a lot. Being able to sustain prices convincingly above $40 is very much in their interest.
Were it not for the Iran issue, you could count on there being a freeze. I think with this meeting in Doha, there's so much invested in it, there's the likelihood it will end with some kind of agreement, though one that will have some sort of ambiguity in it.
What is still to be determined is how much additional oil Iran could put in the market on a sustained basis. These prices demonstrate why the exporters will try to find a way to cooperate again.
He's the top decision maker on oil. ... That's part of his brief. I think these decisions are very considered. It's not just made up on the spot. ... One of the messages is that Saudi Arabia is going this to be a bigger force in the world economy, not just in terms of oil but in terms of finance ... these messages have to be seen together. This is all part of a larger program of reform and protecting the Saudi position in terms of oil.
The number of producers going there shows you how alarmed the governments are about their finances with low oil prices.
I think the very fact that you've gotten this response and that this is in the air now, just shows you the economic situation for these countries is becoming more desperate. When they really have their back against the wall is when a deal gets made.
The Saudis have all along, have consistently said they would not cut by themselves but if the other big players will cut they will cut too. They're not going to absorb the blows for others.
There's not been an accommodation possible in OPEC?Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries are not going to cut back, to make room for Iran coming back into the market.