Last quote by Eric Rosengren
Eric Rosengren quotes
To me, that seems quite appropriate.
By 2019, I expect the unemployment rate to have declined below 4.5 percent. While I have a long track record of advocating for policy that supports robust labor market conditions, that is below the rate that I believe is sustainable in the long run.
Unemployment this low may well have the desirable effect of bringing more workers into the labor force – but, unfortunately, only temporarily.
I don't think recessions happen because it's been a long time ... but because of policy mistakes. Right now it is hard to see us raising rates too rapidly.
There are also longer-term risks from significantly overshooting the U.S. economy's growth. If we want to ensure that we remain at full employment, gradual tightening is likely to be appropriate.
A reasonable case can be made for continuing to pursue a gradual normalization of monetary policy.
Risks to the forecast are becoming increasingly two-sided.
One of the key goals should be that we don't have another recession.
Votes by themselves shouldn't be a reason for altering monetary policy. If we were experiencing significant changes in financial conditions that made us significantly alter the outlook going forward, that would be something that we should take into account.
The reason they should believe this time is different is that the economic conditions are changing over this period.
The reason I am more confident is we are getting better data.
Stock markets globally have improved quite significantly. The data has been coming in better and not only in the United States but in many other parts of the world. Some of the headwinds we thought might be a significant problem as recently as March seem to be a little bit less of a significant problem as we go into June.
If we see no progress on inflation at all, there would be no rush to be raising rates. In order to ease further we'd have to see that we're not getting the forecasts of 2 percent growth at all. We'd probably have to see a situation where we'd be concerned that the unemployment rate would be rising rather than falling ... and a significant weakening in labor markets.
While monetary policy should not overreact to short-term temporary fluctuations in financial markets, policy makers should take seriously the potential downside risk to their economic forecasts and manage those risks as we think about the appropriate path.