Erin Gibbs - S&P Global

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Last quote by Erin Gibbs

Fresh not frozen beef has been the recent positive headline for McDonald's but it does have a few other things going for it.feedback
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Apr 21 2017 McDonald's
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Erin Gibbs is associated, including December and S&P. Most recently, Erin Gibbs has been quoted saying: “One large company buying another large company really just isn't good business sense. Being categorized as a media entertainment company could possibly increase Apple's multiple, but most of the criticism of Apple revolves around its slowing growth, and Disney is growing at a slower place. One would more likely expect an acquisition to increase the growth rate rather than lower it.” in the article Investors aren’t putting much stock in the Apple/Disney takeout talk.
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Erin Gibbs quotes

It's really concentrated, and you're just going to see a lot more volatility. It's not just all corporate debt; it's very concentrated in those two industries and you're going to see a lot of volatility, adding that stabilized energy prices will make energy-related names in the HYG more attractive. And so [the HYG] has been doing well recently because it's coming off of lows, but in theory it should continue to go higher. You should get paid for taking on that additional risk in the HYG.feedback

This is one of those industries that's unusual, that we actually have growth with attractive valuations. It actually looks like a good entry point, and even the consensus price on these stocks is about 16 percent higher than where they're trading now, so we're looking at decent gains about what Wall Street's expecting, so across the board, looking good.feedback

So yes, people haven't been as thrilled with some of the hardware and the physical products, but we see it transition and we still see decent growth. We still like Apple here.feedback

We still like several Consumer Staples companies, including KO [Coca-Cola] and PG [Procter & Gamble]. Consumer staples stocks actually have a slightly less foreign revenues than the broader S&P 500 index, with a little more [than] 35% of sales coming from outside the US.feedback

We still think that they're probably going to underperform the U.S. markets. So for us, we're not as positive. I don't see it rebounding and taking over the U.S. markets.feedback

They don't go up as much as the market but they don't come down as much either. I expect some dips, but companies with high yields, rising earnings and rising dividends are lifeboats in volatile markets.feedback

Valuations [across high-dividend-paying sectors] are at the top of their historical ranges.feedback

I'm not expecting them to be out-performers in the coming year.feedback

If it's just coming from Disney, then Disney needs a big lift up – way more than Wall Street's expecting.feedback

As we know, gold is really priced according to investor sentiment, the dollar and interest rates. And right now, sentiment, interest rates and everything else is going up. There's no reason to have that safety bet or that insurance with gold. So for us, we see them continually to be in this downtrend – no big turnaround anytime soon.feedback

If we see a decrease, particularly on the federal level, it's those retailers that could really benefit, and we could look at a much better hit for the next two years.feedback

It could finally be a good year for retail stocks.feedback

For the past 3 years, while we've been in this low interest environment, the REIT sector/Industry has hovered between 35 and 45 forward earnings, clearly commanding a premium for the dividends paid out and moving in the opposite direction of the yields.feedback

As long [as] interest rates are expected to rise I would expect valuations to continue to remain towards the bottom of their historical range in the mid 30's.feedback

I'm a little concerned that we're getting a little pricey, a little rich.feedback

I'm not necessarily saying that markets need to go down, but I would expect to see some consolidation between now and the end of the year.feedback

The EEM has been weighed down by the underperformance of emerging country performance in Asia, which accounts for over 70 percent of the ETF. The ETF also has a heavy exposure in information technology and banks, accounting for about half of the portfolio.feedback

And we're still looking for even more positive numbers in the fourth quarter in 2017. So fundamentally, we look to be in good shape.feedback

This is the first quarter where we've seen positive growth after four quarters of earnings contraction, so we've finally gotten out of that trough.feedback

We're looking at maybe a 45 percent correlation [between a Trump victory and gold prices]. So gold may even go up by 3 percent if he wins.feedback

If the expected winner wins, we expect the market to stay on pace.feedback

We've got the election soon, we've got the Fed rate rise. I think investors are sort of waiting to see what happens, as well as earnings growth, before they really make decisions on what's going to push the market ahead.feedback

There aren't really any values in the group and you don't see as much potential upside when looking at target analyst consensus prices.feedback

You're paying for expected growth and these companies can disappoint with nasty downside.feedback

And AT&T, with their acquisition of DirecTV, they are now able to do a lot of bundling, they have more mobile.feedback

It seems that Wall Street analysts agree with Larry.feedback

This could continue. If we keep seeing volatility, if we keep seeing rate hikes, if we keep seeing investors changing their portfolios, it could get better.feedback

Economists and investors seem to be at odds. Who is right?feedback

We've been seeing some positive economic news come out recently that has really reassured investors over the last five days.feedback

Implied probability of a December rate stands at 62%. But oddly economists' survey only predicts non-farm payrolls to be 172,000 jobs on Friday.feedback

We're getting used to lower interest rates, and we definitely see an investor behavior of more of a risk-on behavior going to more cyclical stocks. I think the utilities are ripe for a pullback. Not only are their valuations very close to what the S&P already offers, they're pretty much all close to their target prices on the underlying stocks.feedback

Technology has obviously been the leader for Q3, but we really see it continuing in Q4.feedback

Elon Musk loves to make these wonderful targets that are never, ever achieved. I'm surprised that investors aren't a little more frustrated.feedback

We think that combined with a lot of the positive numbers we've seen with the housing reports, we'd really like stocks like your Home Depot, your Lowe's, those specialty retails that also have exposure to home sales.feedback

We looked at betas to the change in the jobs report, year-over-year changes. Assuming that we're going to have an increase in jobs, we looked at those industries that do well when there's a positive change, and one of the things that really stood out across the board is that three out of the top five industries were retail.feedback

Overall, I think the sector is very much a hold. We're seeing really high valuations [and] the energy sector is trading at about 53 times forward earnings. It looks like investors are really looking at not just what's going to happen in the next 12 months, but they're expecting oil to stay in these $40 to $50 ranges in the next 18 months.feedback

Short term there's a little room to grow, long term still one of the safer places for your money.feedback

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