Gina Martin Adams

We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Gina Martin Adams is associated, including Federal Reserve, China, and market. Most recently, Gina Martin Adams has been quoted saying: “There's the risk we've priced out all expectations that the Federal Reserve is going to do anything this year, and the market has gotten very comfortable with this idea that we've gotten back to a Goldilocks scenario.” in the article Wall Street's bull will have to navigate earnings and politics in the week ahead.

Gina Martin Adams quotes

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There's always a risk that some extraneous factor comes in and makes us reawake to the reality that stocks are a little overvalued. I think oil prices are the biggest risk. Rates are a potential risk. I think if we get another strong employment number in early September, and Europe doesn't [negatively react] in terms of Brexit, I think the focus could be back on the table for September, and that could be the big post–Labor Day surprise.

The two things that are most important to me are what happens in earnings season and what's going on in the bond market. Stocks and bonds are highly correlated.

Particularly after that run, there does seem to be some anticipation that earnings will improve over the next 12 months already baked into stock prices. At this point, companies themselves will have to justify that view in coming weeks.

It's the first quarter after eight of decelerating earnings growth. It's the first quarter where we don't have worsening earnings growth expectations. …Tech was a big part of the miss in the first quarter. If you get much better tech prints, that could be good for the broader market, especially if you get forward forecasts out of the tech and industrial sector that look better.

I think they'll acknowledge the economic data improvement and financial conditions improved, but I doubt they'll seem very hawkish until they let a few months go by.

There's the risk we've priced out all expectations that the Federal Reserve is going to do anything this year, and the market has gotten very comfortable with this idea that we've gotten back to a Goldilocks scenario.

The U.S. (jobs) data came in pretty good, but there's still a lot of uncertainty coming out of China. Oil prices are breaking new lows as well. These are the same issues as in August coming up again. I think ultimately until oil bottoms, stocks are going to struggle. ... Until we get a bottom in oil, it's going to be very tough.

There's been a tremendous amount of financial market volatility coming out of China. Until policymakers find a right solution, that is a near-term risk. Emerging markets are always a risk when the Fed takes its foot off the pedal.

I think ex-energy, earnings will be positive. You could see a surprise out of health care, consumer discretionary, technology, but services broadly have pricing power and more domestic focus and don't have exposure to commodities prices. Restaurants and hospitality, things like IT, software and services areas of the economy that are not exposed to emerging markets are probably better positioned.

I'm not giving up the ghost on the market, but this is the reality. We're going to have winners and losers, and you have to pick the winners. It's no longer easy to put money into the market and watch it rise. It really is true when the Fed goes away, the easy times go away as well.

People are panicking because the market is not behaving to start the year. It's in the background now, but it might pop back up. The Fed is supposed to follow the economy and sometimes that works at the financial markets' peril. We might just be at that point.

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