Greg Valliere


Last quote by Greg Valliere

There are already trade disputes between the U.S. and Canada on lumber and dairy products. We slapped tariffs on their aircraft. There are already issues. There could be a fight with China over aluminum and steel. I just worry these things become more
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Nov 13 2017
Greg Valliere has been quoted 74 times. The one recent article where Greg Valliere has been quoted is The next big worry for markets-NAFTA fails and trade wars erupt. Most recently, Greg Valliere was quoted as having said, “People don't like free trade anymore. It's unpopular. I think you could make a compelling case that it's helped the U.S. It's helped our export sector. It's brought in goods that are low priced and that's been good for consumers… But there is a focus on the people who have been hurt.”.
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Greg Valliere quotes

Sep 07 2017

I think she's still on the short list, despite the Jackson Hole speech. Cohn's standing his slipped following his Financial Times

Sep 06 2017 - Federal Reserve

Monetary policy is going to be data dependent. If that's true perhaps the more intriguing angle is regulatory policy. That may guide his thinking on the next

Sep 06 2017 - Federal Reserve

She's 71, and she's got a choice of maybe slowing down her pace and writing a book, or presiding over the winding down of the balance sheet with a big group of Trump appointees at the Fed. She may choose the former rather than the

Aug 28 2017 - Wall Street

The president demands unwavering loyalty [just ask [former FBI director] Jim Comey], and he never forgets a slight. Yet Trump got a smackdown this weekend from Gary Cohn and Janet Yellen. Yellen's prospects have slipped even further, after her full-throated defense of tough Wall Street regulations and free trade

Aug 18 2017 - Trump Presidency

I suppose getting rid of Bannon might assuage some of the anger, but the problem is not Bannon. The problem is

Aug 18 2017 - Republican Party

Fearful of losing their party, and losing the 2018 election, Republicans on Capitol Hill are nearing a consensus: it's time to go it alone, ignoring the dysfunctional White House and proceeding on legislation without input from President Trump. It's their only hope, and it could produce

Aug 17 2017 - American politics

I think Republicans in Congress increasingly are unified in their goal to just go it alone and virtually ignore the White House. ...This may embolden Republicans to move on their own. I think if we get legislative accomplishments, it will be in spite of Trump, not because of

Aug 17 2017 - Federal Reserve

Cohn's probably the front runner to replace Janet Yellen, so I can't see him voluntarily giving up an opportunity like that. I don't see him getting fired. I think he's held in high regard. It was clear to me and I think a lot of people on Tuesday that he was distressed by Trump's doubling down on the Charlottesville stuff, but I don think it's sufficient for him to quit. I think like everyone at the White House, he's distressed about what Trump has

Aug 17 2017 - Trump Presidency

He's available to be be thrown under the bus. He said a lot of things I think the president would have issues with...He did say a lot of provocative things. I would say he's on thin ice. I think Trump is holding him in reserve. He may need a scapegoat down the road. I think Bannon probably

Aug 17 2017 - Trump Presidency

Market reaction would depend on his departure, but it could reinforce the concerns the White House is in total disarray, and I don't think that's a good story. I think if Bannon were to leave there would be instant speculation about what damage he could do to Trump with an interview or two...and I think Trump is aware of

Aug 17 2017 - Trump Presidency

The market continues to do well despite all of this stuff. Even with more and more defections among Republicans, I think they're just going to go off and do their own thing. We may get something done in spite of Trump rather than because of

Aug 16 2017 - Trump Presidency

The Trump agenda will hit an enormous obstacle in September because of budget issues, and he doesn't seem to have the political capital to prevail. Charlottesville was the last straw for some Republicans, who are sick of defending Trump. So they will essentially ignore the White

Jul 31 2017

I think it removes some uncertainty. I think this is Kelly getting things in order. It may look chaotic now… but he had to

Jul 31 2017 - Trump Presidency

That did a lot of damage with one key Trump constituency. Trump is under 40 percent job approval. He can't handle another 5 - or 6-point hit. I think that interview hurt (Scaramucci)

Jul 31 2017

This is a sign that someone is willing to spill a little blood and maybe he can get them back on track. First and foremost, they had to show some

May 24 2017

Right now, both sides are pretty well dug in. I think this would never make it through the Senate. The only thing the market cares about is the tax bill. There are some signs of movement

May 23 2017

It's going to be hard to spin it positively because there will be two headlines. One will be how many people will get thrown out of their health insurance and the other will be the cost. Those are going to be the stories, and I don't think either one of them will be pretty. Maybe it will be slightly better than the previous score on the bill that failed, but it's not going to be anything to brag

May 17 2017 - Trump Presidency

To convict, it would take a two-thirds vote in the Senate, a very high bar to clear, since the Republicans have 52 seats. As of this morning, we think Trump can hang on, but who knows what comes next?feedback

May 09 2017 - Trump Presidency

It's going to embolden Trump's critics, who say he has something to hide…but I think this has become too much about Comey for the last few months. I think an FBI director should be more circumspect and he wasn't. I think there's going to be a huge focus on him [Sessions] and his role. This complicates things. I think the average Americas are sick of this whole thing but inside the beltway, it slows down progress on the Trump

May 09 2017 - Trump Presidency

I think it's still another story that's going to slow down Trump's agenda. We're going to have a budget fight in the next few months. Nobody has any idea what the Senate is going to do on health care. You have another huge story that's going to gobble up more time. It's a distraction for sure. There's only two things I see that could really derail this market. One could be a geopolitical crisis, and I don't see it, and the second would be a sign that tax reform bill is dead, and I don't see it. It's a distraction. They're going to continue the investigation. There's no question in my

May 09 2017 - Trump Presidency

It's so important to divorce yourself from all the background noise surrounding Trump that's making headlines. It's easy to get sidetracked. Everywhere I look I see basically Goldilocks – moderate growth, moderate inflation, moderate interest rates, decent earnings. There's nothing on the economic front that stands out as

Apr 25 2017 - Trump Presidency

If Trump wants rates to be as low as possible, (Yellen's) still the best choice. In my career, I've never seen a president who favored higher interest rates. That's pretty unusual. Cohn would be an interesting pick, through there would be some concern that he was politicized and the markets could view him with some suspicion that he is too close a political ally with

Apr 05 2017

It's clear to me it's now a live option at the Pentagon. The generals have made it clear a military option has big risks. There's big risks of this spinning out of

Mar 21 2017 - Ford

Make no mistake: a defeat in Thursday's vote would send a clear signal that the rest of Trump's agenda – taxes, the budget, infrastructure, etc. – is in

Feb 27 2017 - Obamacare

For now the market wants to get a sense that he's on top of this and there is a plan going forward – once we do Obamacare and the spending stuff that we are going to do tax reform and on and on. I think he'll say the right things the market wants to hear. He lives in an adoring echo chamber. I'm not sure he realizes how important this speech is for him to get things back on

Feb 17 2017

I wouldn't call it dead, but I would say it's on life support. [Trump's] been all over the lot on this issue. They [retailers] may have persuaded him to oppose this tax. That's speculation. If they do, I think Ryan's got to come up with a trillion dollars. I don't see a trillion dollars. Let it be a revenue loser on paper. Proponents of a big tax cut say it would generate a gusher of revenues over the next few years. There is the threat they have to consider a slightly smaller tax cut and that would generate real opposition from the White

Feb 17 2017

We're still going to get a tax cut. We're still going to get tax reform. I just think this complicates things even

Feb 15 2017

[O]ne of the reasons the stock market rallied in recent months was the prospect of action in Washington on these four major bills–and suddenly they seem bogged

Jan 28 2017

The bottom line is he only has a certain amount of political

Jan 28 2017

There's going to be such on intense focus on this for several days that it will reinforce some anxiety in the market that a lot of economic reforms, tax cuts, things like that are not at the top of the list of his

Jan 11 2017

I think there's a fundamental difference on corporate taxes. On taxes in general, Trump wants big tax cuts, more generous than House Republicans. On the other hand, House Republicans are more interested in tax reform. The latter wouldn't cost as

Jan 11 2017 - Obamacare

The big ones are Russia and conflicts of interest. Number one is going to be conflicts of interest. There's so many juicy issues with his business ties and his kids. There will be lots of questions on conflicts and then Russia. Three would be

Jan 11 2017

Trump totally lacks self-discipline, going after Meryl

Jan 04 2017 - UBS

The 'sugar high' stock market rally after the election was entirely warranted because there's a good prospect of stronger GDP growth in the next two years – stimulated by tax reform and reduced regulations. But the legislative process is often glacial: This will not be a 1,000-mile sprint, it will be one step at a time, starting at noon

Jan 03 2017 - Federal Reserve

Trump is inclined to appoint critics of Janet Yellen, and I would view this as part of his long-range plan to get rid of

Nov 17 2016 - Federal Reserve

I would think given the opportunity, she would try to steer people away from any legislation that would curb the Fed's authority. I think the House is going to move on something next year, at least an

Nov 17 2016 - Federal Reserve

She's not going to encourage that kind of speculation. She knows she has 15 months to

Nov 17 2016 - Federal Reserve

I think the real concern is whether Trump aligns himself with people who want to curb the Fed's authority. If there's one appointment that would send a chill through the Fed it would be Jeb Hensarling, and I think that would send an alarm through the Federal Reserve and maybe be viewed by concern in the financial

Nov 07 2016

Investors appreciate the likely gridlock that's going to prevail. For a lot of Americans it's frustrating, but for the markets, gridlock means they do less

Nov 07 2016 - Populism

I have a hard time believing we're going to get populist unity. The populism of Bernie Sanders is a hell of a lot different than Donald Trump's. It's out there as a factor. But the overriding difference is that the economy is clearly showing signs of accelerating, and an improving economy would weaken some of that populist

Nov 03 2016

First of all, she needs something to deflect attention away from the slump she's

Nov 03 2016

If it's anything like the GDP report, it helps her. … If it's a good number, he'll say it's fake. If it's a bad number, he'll have a field day with

Oct 28 2016

This is still another reason why Trump will probably lose. The economy is in decent shape so decent that the Fed will have to raise interest rates later this

Sep 27 2016

She has some very vocal critics in the House. She always gets a rough time during Q and A from [Rep. Jeb] Hensarling and people like that. I'm sure she'll get a thorough

Sep 27 2016 - Federal Reserve

It has to worry the markets that potentially you could have a president getting into a nasty dispute with the chairman of the Fed in early 2017. That's something the market would not like to see. I think the Fed has not done a very good job communicating. It's a cacophony of confusing comments. There's reason to criticize the Fed, but the personal attack on Yellen is

Sep 27 2016 - Federal Reserve

This is extraordinary. This is really unprecedented for someone this close to the presidency to criticize the Fed chairman in personal terms, very strident and personal terms. I can't recall any precedent for that. I think the markets have to worry about this. I think there's a real chance that he could align himself with the members of Congress that want to sharply curb the Fed's

Sep 23 2016

I still feel the markets have not priced in a potential Trump victory. I think most people in the market think she's going to win, and if you look at the electoral college map, you can still make that case even though it's tightened. I think the market would have to focus on what it means if he were to win. First and foremost, the market has to care about uncertainty. He changes his positions with

Sep 23 2016

If he's snarling and nasty, that might please his base but will it look presidential for a lot of swing voters who have not paid that much attention? Will Hillary Clinton still look energetic in the last half hour? She'll probably win points. Her knowledge of the details still exceeds his. He may have some gaffes and get some facts wrong, but for most viewers it will [be] the image he's

Aug 26 2016 - Obamacare

Obamacare is in trouble, and the announcement of huge premium increases will be embarrassing for the Democrats, who will urge adoption of a public option. Clinton will seek to change the subject ? she targeted Mylan's allergy drug pricing yesterday. She will be a headline risk for drug companies for months (or years) to

Jul 22 2016 - Wall Street

Being a cynic, I would say they're so far behind on fundraising, why would they want to antagonize Wall Street at this point? Just because something is in a platform doesn't mean he's going to advocate it. A platform is just a bunch of

Jul 20 2016 - Wall Street

There's really this pervasive anti-Wall Street, anti-business view in both parties. I think there's a cloud over Wall Street that's not going to dissipate anytime soon. The problem with Trump is just the level of uncertainty. With Hillary, I think she's more practical. She's not going to try to put Glass-Steagall back together again. She's not going to try to dismantle Dodd

Jul 20 2016

I think both Hillary and Trump need a deal in 2017. I think some kind of a deal that combines repatriation for earnings – the corporate profits that are stashed in Europe. It's a huge story for drug companies and technology

Jul 20 2016 - Trans Pacific Partnership

It's a genuine concern, but investors have to realize he could take action without congressional approval. I do think that's a serious threat, but I would also say that neither he nor Hillary is going to be very aggressive looking for new trade deals. I think we hit a wall on things like the Trans Pacific Partnership. With him there's a serious risk there could be worsening relations with

Jul 20 2016

The other part of the story is the infrastructure stocks. I would say both Trump and Hillary could have a surprising degree of agreement on

Jul 20 2016

He does have a lot of programs that cost a lot of money. To me it's a reason why the long-term trend in bond yields is higher. I think if he were to win, the deficit would jump significantly. If Hillary were to win, I think the deficit would jump modestly. I think that is something the bond market is going to have to pay attention

Mar 09 2016

It's politically radioactive to support free trade right

Oct 16 2013 - Wall Street

The problem is a lot of these new Tea Party members actually have great antipathy towards Wall Street and the big banks. Wall Street and big banks are the villains for a lot of the Tea Party crowd. So no I think the lobbying is not really being met with open arms among a lot of these radical

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