Howard Archer - IHS

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Last quote by Howard Archer

We are far from convinced that raising interest rates this year is the recommended course of action.feedback
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Oct 16 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Howard Archer is associated, including UK, EU, and consumer. Most recently, Howard Archer has been quoted saying: “Overall the data maintain our view that GDP growth in the third quarter was 0.3-0.4pc quarter-on-quarter after expansion of 0.3pc quarter-on-quarter in both the second and first quarters. The data will probably maintain expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates in November.” in the article Britain’s builders try to dodge recession as orders bounce back.
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Howard Archer quotes

Aug 18 2017 - London

There was an increase of 35pc from North America (up to 650,000 from 483,000), clearly buoyed by the particularly sharp drop of the pound against the dollar since mid-2017. This is a welcome positive for the UK economy. The inference is that the terrorist incidents in London and Manchester earlier this year have not markedly deterred foreign visits.feedback

Aug 01 2017

The survey pointed to a further marked easing of price pressures in the manufacturing sector in July, which fuels hope that UK inflation is close to peaking and will go down well at the Bank of England.feedback

Jul 31 2017

House prices look unlikely to rise by more than 2pc over 2017, and are expected to be essentially flat over 2018. The fundamentals for house buyers are likely to remain weak over the coming months with consumers' purchasing power continuing to be squeezed by inflation running higher than earnings growth. Additionally, housing market activity is likely to be hampered by soft consumer confidence and limited willingness to engage in major transactions.feedback

Jul 20 2017

Life will remain highly challenging for consumers over the second half of 2017.feedback

Jul 13 2017

The Bank of England will likely see the report as indicating that lenders are moving in the right direction in their lending to consumers, but that pressure must be maintained on banks to act responsibly especially given the weakened economic outlook and squeeze on consumers' finances.feedback

Jul 13 2017

Lenders and consumers both need to take on board the increased possibility that the Bank of England could shortly raise interest rates. While any interest rate hike would be small with further increases some way off, even small increases could cause problems for many consumers given high borrowing levels.feedback

Jul 12 2017

Ongoing anaemic earnings growth looks to be key factor calling for the Bank of England to sit tight on interest rates.feedback

Jul 01 2017

It is about getting the balance right, because the longer that consumer credit grows at double-digit rates, the more you are storing up potential problems further out. A lot of people have borrowed more and interest rates have not risen for a long time, so a lot of people would be in trouble with even one rate hike – they have not planned or budgeted for it, and have not taken on board the fact that rates might rise.feedback

Jun 29 2017

May's mortgage data pointed to lacklustre but stable housing market activity. The housing market is being pressurised by weakened consumer purchasing power and increased consumer wariness over engaging in major transactions. This is likely to limit house prices, which we now expect to rise by just 2pc over 2017.feedback

Jun 29 2017 - Interest rates

The Bank of England will be far from happy with the May consumer credit data, and it could bolster the case for a near-term interest rate hike to try to curb consumers' readiness to borrow.feedback

Jun 27 2017 - Interest rates

The risk to financial stability coming from the recent rapid growth in consumer credit would undoubtedly be magnified if there is a near-term interest rate hike. While any interest rate hike would be small with further increases some way off, even small increases could cause problems for some consumers given their high borrowing levels.feedback

Jun 27 2017

On that logic, the rise in the countercyclical capital buffer should go some way to dampening the hawkish shift recently seen among monetary policymakers and so reinforces our view that a rise in rates this year remains very unlikely.feedback

Jun 26 2017

This [slowdown] will be of some relief to the Bank of England. It may well be that heightened uncertainties over the outlook and increased concerns over personal finances are encouraging some consumers to be more cautious in their borrowing.feedback

Jun 26 2017

The fundamentals for house buyers could deteriorate further over the coming months with consumers' purchasing power squeezed even more by a combination of higher inflation and muted earnings growth. It is also possible that the labour market will increasingly falter despite its current resilience. Additionally, housing market activity is likely to be hampered by soft consumer confidence and reduced willingness to engage in major transactions.feedback

Jun 16 2017 - Easter

The rise in UK travellers abroad was markedly lower, as was the spend. This reflects the higher cost of travelling and being abroad due to the weakened pound.feedback

Jun 16 2017 - Easter

This is clearly a positive for the UK economy, and the high tourism in April may well have also contributed to the spike in retail sales during the month.feedback

Jun 11 2017 - Brexit

With political uncertainty both domestically and over Brexit, there is a heck of a lot of uncertainty out there at the moment. The Bank of England will have to acknowledge that at Thursday's MPC meeting. They will be in wait and see mode, and are likely to stay there for an extended period.feedback

Jun 11 2017

The rotation of workers out of part-time roles into full-time employment is now an established theme and if we see this trend once more it will imply that slack is being partially eroded as a result of reduced 'underemployment.feedback

May 18 2017 - Easter

April's sharp rebound in retail sales … buoys hopes that consumer spending will not hamper UK GDP growth as it clearly did in the first quarter.feedback

May 16 2017

The Bank of England will most likely sit tight on interest rates through 2017 and 2018 – and very possibly well beyond. We suspect it will end up remaining tolerant on the inflation overshoot given likely limited UK growth and the prolonged, highly uncertain outlook that the UK economy will face as the government negotiates the exit from the EU.feedback

May 08 2017 - Easter

There is a strong likelihood that consumer confidence and willingness to buy major items will soften – as it is not only pressurised by weakening purchasing power but also by increasing concerns over the economy and jobs as growth likely slows and uncertainties are magnified by Brexit coming more to the forefront now that Article 50 has been triggered.feedback

May 04 2017

The extent of April's drop reinforces belief that the car sector is going to find life ever more challenging in the UK over the coming months. And it is notable that it is private car sales that saw the biggest retrenchment in April and have been the only sector to see sales fall year-on-year over the first four months of 2017. Consumers' purchasing power is now being squeezed markedly by higher inflation and muted wage growth and it is likely that the squeeze will become tighter still.feedback

May 03 2017

There remains the possibility that growth could be hampered by consumers being more reluctant to spend as their purchasing power is squeezed by overall higher inflation and limited wage growth in most countries.feedback

May 03 2017

Construction companies will be hoping that recent Government measures aimed at boosting infrastructure and housebuilding (including in last November's Autumn Statement) have a material beneficial impact.feedback

May 03 2017

Measures announced include £2.3bn being earmarked for a new Housing Infrastructure Fund, which will be used to support the infrastructure needed to support the building of up to 100,000 new homes.feedback

Apr 28 2017 - Brexit

We suspect markedly weakening consumer fundamentals, likely mounting caution over making major spending decisions, and elevated house price to earnings ratios will weigh down further on housing market activity and house prices over the coming months.feedback

Apr 25 2017 - British elections 2017

This is helpful for the chancellor's and government's credibility, which is all the more welcome given the looming snap general election. Philip Hammond is clearly keen to keep fiscal ammunition up his sleeve – due to the major uncertainties and downside risks that the economy faces as it navigates its way out of the EU.feedback

Apr 24 2017

Following the likely marked first quarter slowdown, we suspect that 2017 will become even more challenging for the UK economy – and particularly for consumers as their purchasing power is squeezed harder still.feedback

Apr 20 2017

We believe markedly weakening consumer fundamentals, likely mounting caution over making major spending decisions, and elevated house price-to-earnings ratios will weigh down on housing market activity and house prices over the coming months. However, a shortage of supply is putting a floor under prices.feedback

Apr 13 2017

If the fundamentals for consumers do weaken further as expected over the coming months, it is vital that banks adopt tight lending standards in granting unsecured consumer credit, or it risks causing serious debt problems for the economy. This would be reinforced if the Bank of England felt compelled to raise interest rates due to mounting concern over the potential inflation overshoot.feedback

Apr 10 2017

There is also a strong likelihood that consumer confidence and willingness to buy major items will soften.feedback

Apr 10 2017

Worrying for UK growth prospects, the fundamentals for consumers look odds-on to weaken markedly further over the coming months as rising inflation eats further into purchasing power with the squeeze reinforced by muted earnings growth. It is also very possible that consumers will face a weakening labour market over the coming months.feedback

Apr 09 2017 - Brexit

Worrying for UK growth prospects, the fundamentals for consumers look odds-on to weaken markedly further over the coming months as rising inflation eats further into purchasing power with the squeeze reinforced by muted earnings growth. We expect inflation to reach 3% before the end of 2017 and it could well rise further, to a peak around 3.3%, in the early months of 2018.feedback

Apr 05 2017

March's car sales performance is all the more impressive given increasing signs that the economy may now be stuttering largely due to the increasing squeeze on consumers' purchasing power coming from markedly higher inflation and muted earnings growth. The sharp weakening of the pound makes it more difficult for car dealers to offer attractive deals on imported cars – with the result that some car manufacturers have raised prices and more increases seem inevitable during 2017.feedback

Mar 31 2017

March's softer Nationwide house price data, following on from the Bank of England reporting a dip in mortgage approvals in February, fuels our belief that the housing market is being increasingly affected by the increasing squeeze on consumers and their concerns over the outlook.feedback

Mar 31 2017

Sterling's marked weakening appears to be increasingly feeding through to lift exports, helped by current decent global demand. Additionally, the trade deficit should be limited by softening domestic demand limiting imports.feedback

Mar 31 2017

Markedly weakening consumer fundamentals, likely mounting caution over making major spending decisions, and elevated house price to earnings ratios are likely to weigh down on housing market activity and house prices. However, a shortage of supply is likely to put a floor under prices. Consequently, we believe house price gains over 2017 will be limited to around 2.5%.feedback

Mar 24 2017

The data from the ONS indicate that the sharply weakened pound is encouraging more visits to the UK from abroad and more spend by visitors. This is especially true of North America, which ties in with the pound's fall being most pronounced against the US dollar.feedback

Mar 24 2017

We expect house price gains over 2017 will be limited to 3pc - and could well be less than this. The fundamentals for house buyers will progressively deteriorate over the coming months with consumers' purchasing power weakening markedly and the labour market likely eventually softening.feedback

Mar 18 2017 - Oil

Inflation is expected to have been lifted in February by significantly increased food prices. We expect consumer price inflation to trend markedly higher over the coming months, as sterling weakness increasingly feeds through, and overall higher oil and commodity prices impact. Additionally, several utility companies have announced electricity and/or gas price hikes in March and April.feedback

Mar 10 2017

While we believe the next move in interest rates will be up, we do not see this happening before 2019 and it could very well be delayed beyond then.feedback

Mar 10 2017

We believe the Bank of England will remain pretty tolerant on the inflation overshoot given the prolonged, highly uncertain outlook that the UK economy is likely to face as the Government negotiates the exit from the EU.feedback

Mar 07 2017 - Palestinian settlements

With consumers becoming more cautious in their spending, the long anticipated slowdown in the economy looks to be materialising. The economy's persistent resilience since last June's Brexit vote has been largely built on consumers keeping on spending.feedback

Mar 07 2017

Consumers are now seeing their purchasing power increasingly diluted and this squeeze looks certain to intensify over the coming months as inflation rises further and earnings growth is muted. Furthermore, a likely weakening economy and more uncertain outlook may well make businesses more circumspect in their car purchases – perhaps taking longer to replace fleets.feedback

Mar 07 2017

Meanwhile, the sharp weakening of the pound makes it more difficult for car dealers to offer attractive deals on imported cars – with the result that some car manufacturers have raised prices and more increases seem inevitable during 2017.feedback

Jan 19 2017

There were reports that retail sales were boosted over the summer by foreign visitors taking advantage of the weak pound to buy expensive items such as jewellery and watches.feedback

Jan 02 2017

While the eurozone seems to have ended 2016 on the up in economic terms, we are concerned that GDP growth could be increasingly hampered in 2017 by political uncertainties.feedback

Dec 29 2016

The fact that the housing market is seemingly struggling to build momentum after coming modestly off its August lows reinforces our suspicion that it is likely to find life increasingly difficult as 2017 progresses.feedback

Dec 20 2016 - Christmas

(This) points to consumers splashing out in the run-up to Christmas, thereby maintaining a strong fourth quarter performance and boosting hopes that GDP growth has held up well.feedback

Nov 07 2016

With .. the economy currently resilient, house prices may well rise modestly in the near term.feedback

Oct 31 2016

Even if eurozone growth does show further signs of improvement over the coming weeks, there is a compelling case to try and fuel the improvement given past hiccups.feedback

Sep 29 2016

Housing market activity is likely to be increasingly pressurized by appreciable uncertainty following the UK's vote to leave the EU.feedback

Sep 27 2016

The softer CBI distributive trades survey for September could be a sign that consumers are becoming more careful.feedback

Sep 08 2016

Draghi indicated that countries with fiscal space should use it - and notably, observed that Germany has fiscal space. Given that a number of German politicians have criticized the ECB's monetary policy, that seems a fair riposte.feedback

Jul 13 2016

With the U.K. economic outlook weakened by the Brexit vote, there can be very little doubt – if any – that the Bank of England will enact some stimulus on Thursday. The only question really seems to be exactly what action will the (monetary policy committee) take?feedback

Jun 07 2016

It was always going to be ever more difficult for car sales to achieve year-on-year gains. However, it is very possible that there was some dampening effect on private and business car sales by heightened uncertainty in the run-up to the referendum.feedback

May 30 2016

Of course, it remains to be seen if the May-April improvements in eurozone consumer and business confidence can be sustained or whether renewed falls occur.feedback

Apr 28 2016

Current increased domestic economic and political uncertainties could also be reining in housing market activity, especially in the run-up to June's EU referendum.feedback

Mar 03 2016

Consumers perhaps offer the euro zone the best hope for growth at the moment – the fundamentals still look reasonable for consumer spending in the euro zone with deflation/negligible inflation boosting purchasing power and labour markets generally improved.feedback

Jan 05 2016

At the very least, the weakness in oil prices has increased the likelihood that euro zone consumer price inflation will remain extremely low for longer.feedback

Nov 16 2015

As horrific as these events are – and this is truly awful – economic activity does tend to be pretty resilient.feedback

Jun 05 2013 - Unemployment

Consumers are still doing little to help the eurozone return to growth, which is little surprise given the pressure they are under in a number of countries from high and rising unemployment and limited purchasing power.feedback

May 17 2013 - Renault

Germany is the best market to see future upticks because the fundamentals for consumers there, such as high employment and wage growth, are better than elsewhere.feedback

Sep 28 2012

While the ECB could act as soon as its October meeting next Thursday, we lean towards the view that they will probably hold off to November.feedback

Feb 28 2011

The downward revision is due to a marked drop in Italian inflation due to a change in its methodology.feedback

Feb 28 2011

The fact remains that euro zone consumer price inflation is still at a 27-month high and set to rise further in the near term due to the spike in oil prices as well as elevated commodity and food prices.feedback

Nov 15 2010

Nevertheless, the overall growth rate in euro zone exports has clearly moderated in recent months. Meanwhile, euro zone imports fell…in September, thereby hinting at softening euro zone domestic demand.feedback

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