Ian Bremmer

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Last quote by Ian Bremmer

Clients are asking about all of the moving pieces. It's suddenly: 'Are we going to be in a much more protectionist world? Is the global marketplace going to fragment?'.
Feb 14 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Ian Bremmer is associated, including China and Trump. Most recently, Ian Bremmer has been quoted saying: “I don't happen to believe that. But if you do believe that, you absolutely want that conflict to come earlier, when the United States is much more powerful than China, than later on when they have the largest economy in the world.” in the article US likely heading toward confrontation with China, expert says.
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Ian Bremmer quotes

It is no coincidence that Xi chose this year to make the trip up the magic mountain.

It is going to be a long haul in persuading a lot of people that there is a different approach. But you don't have to throw the baby out with the bath water.

If you want to find people who are going to rally together and say capitalism is fundamentally broken, Davos is not the place to go.

Now the 'Pax Americana' is over. It's been coming … for a while. It's now here.

The economics of the EU work for the Germans in a way that they don't work for the EU periphery. You could easily have a snap election in the U.K. before you get to real Brexit negotiations.

I'm less worried about a trade war. I'm worried more about ... backing into inadvertent escalation like you saw on Taiwan. I'm more worried about a potential conflict over Taiwan, over North Korea, where the stakes are a lot higher and, frankly, where Trump doesn't have capable people yet who are advising him.

The environment for the entire Trump administration on China is going to be much more challenging to negotiate and I don't think Trump has gotten his head around that yet. The problem is that [partnership] was the one thing that was a mechanism to get all of America's allies on board with U.S.-led trade as opposed to China-led trade.

If you're going to tell America's allies that you're not going to give them this commitment, you're not going to follow through on what's most important for them for avoiding a China-led system and then you're beating up on China, you're going to end up with a lot of countries doing what the Philippines did under Obama, say the future is actually China, not the United States, I can't trust these guys.

Wilbur Ross is obviously an extremely capable fellow. I think he's one of the best appointments they've made so far.

The Russians will express their gravest possible concerns, and Erdogan will use this as an excuse to crack down on political enemies as much as possible.

There's no question that this is yet another display of Erdogan not having adequate control of the security within his borders.

Rex Tillerson is a very capable businessman. He is certainly a guy that knows his way around these blocks but ultimately I don't think he's going to be the one driving policy.

You have to be worried that he isn't really capable of showing a lot of nuances. As a businessman that's fine…but there does need to be some diplomacy in your foreign policy. I don't believe that Trump actually has the policy chops to know the implications of what he's doing but I do know that American allies in Asia are desperately concerned that Trump is not a guy that can be counted on.

There is something going on;there is a reason why Trump wanted to help the Russians – I don't know if it is because of economic interests with Russia or because of his advisers being close to them.

The power of the American president is not absolute. There's a serious amount of pushback that he will get from important people, including from some people's he's appointed to posts.

I was in Beijing a week ago, and at one point I said to an audience of government officials, it's going to be very interesting for you to work with an American leader who admires a lot of what you guys do.

Trump has been accepting calls of congratulations from everybody, without the focus on usual protocol and absence of regular intelligence briefs. He knows there's a problem between China and Taiwan, but unlikely thought taking a call would cause an international incident. That's just lack of policy experience… but it puts him in a very tough place with Beijing.

You improvise around this stuff and U.S. national interests will be damaged.

American allies are freaked out about this in Asia. The Chinese are licking their lips – they're very happy about it.

This means that everyone in Asia no longer sees the United States as a credible leader, so they have to go to China for leadership. There's a little bit of triumphalism in Beijing.

It's precisely the role of American values that most underpinned its strength as the world's superpower...That view has already eroded dramatically over the past decade...but President Trump intends to upend it. America's footprint as the world's leader, and the role of Americanization in a globalized world, now pass the point of no return.

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a dead letter in this environment, as is the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), [which is ] already on life support.

A Trump presidency means the most significant hit to American power and leadership globally than any other event since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Maduro's just happy to have a smokescreen. All this just extends the economic and social damage. The long-term outcome is the same: Maduro can't hold on for much longer. But he can hold on for longer than many expected.

After doing everything possible to slow down the recall effort of President Nicolas Maduro, the election commission finally suspended it all together. There's no legal mechanism left to remove the leadership, which means the resumption of major anti-Maduro street protests and demonstrations, and the state-supported repression to keep it under 'control.

We'll see what we get from all of these member states, but the initial responses actually make me pretty optimistic.

The geopolitical recession is really just picking up steam. And that's about a lack of global leadership. It's unilateralism from the U.S. and everyone else and it's also the delegitimization of a lot of development governments – the anti-establishment tendencies that we're seeing in the U.S., we're seeing in Europe – it's making it a lot harder for organizations like the IMF to do their jobs.

They need to recognize that political instability and the changes in the political order are going to directly undermine their mandate.

If they are not able to comment on that in the same way that they comment on a country which is not putting policies in place that will allow them to grow or meet the IMF mandate, then you've got challenges.

Russia has the capabilities, and the timing also provides a motivation. The Kremlin strongly believes the U.S. government has been behind similar efforts against Russia – a la the Ukraine and Georgia revolutions.

China does not want Europe to fall apart. They don't want a Trump presidency. China understands that what they need right now is global stability.

There was a hope on the part of Britain that this was going to be a special friendship…That relationship is clearly not going to have the luster that a lot of people have expected.

I'd be very surprised in five years' time if we see Apple having the kind of access to the Chinese consumer that they presently enjoy.

Vladimir Putin is directly caught up in this. the $2 billion could be "a tiny fraction of how much the Kremlin has actually been laundering.

Iran's government now accepts that sanctions represent a clear threat to the regime itself.

Iran is unlikely to accept all those demands without something comprehensive in return–if at all. But the limits on success are clear. Both Republican lawmakers in Washington and US allies in Israel are likely to define success differently than the White house does. And the US is still asking for a lot of things that will be difficult for Iran's government to accept. The sides remain far apart.

The US will ask Iran to halt production of 20% enriched material, eliminate the existing stockpile of that material, halt activity at the heavily fortified Fordo enrichment facility, accept a more intrusive inspection regime, and perhaps suspend the installation of new centrifuges.

You would think, given that the EU is the world's largest common economic space and given how problematic Europe might have been or may still be for the US economy, someone would have something to say about it: they did not. And while the US is very willing to dispense advice to the Europeans, no one is bringing a cheque book. Clearly the American position is that Europe has to fix Europe's own problems – so, I really don't see a significant difference on Europe with either of these candidates.

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