Ian Bremmer - Eurasia Group


Last quote by Ian Bremmer

A lot of these countries will be wondering not only about their relationship to the United States, but also how long this guy's gonna be around. You wanna watch whether countries are hedging more against the United States; to what extent Trump doesn't look like a leader.feedback
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May 17 2017 Trump Presidency
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Ian Bremmer is associated, including China and Trump. Most recently, Ian Bremmer has been quoted saying: “The Saudis wanted to see the back of Obama; they're much happier with Trump. [Israeli prime minister] Netanyahu wanted to see the back of Obama; he's much happier with Trump. The Pope gives nice symbolism. He's got bigger problems, and doesn't really know anything about NATO. Most of his key advisers don't really want to change things–I think he'd rather pretend he has a win, saying: 'They're spending more and it's because of me.” in the article Trump’s first foreign trip: The deals he’ll try to make and the things that could go wrong.
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Ian Bremmer quotes

If you look at the way he's spoken with the German and French leadership and compare it to the way he's spoken with Putin, you see this is a radically different perspective.feedback

Tech companies in particular need talent and that talent is coming from abroad. It's not about the ban from seven countries. This is about creating an environment where America is no longer seen as an attractive place to live for a lot of people these companies really need to have.feedback

In the meantime, the South Korean government has ramped up bilateral meetings with Chinese officials and looks to grow their bilateral trade relations.feedback

Trump's policies are taking a whole bunch of countries that were already worried about America's commitment to lead and America's commitment to its alliances. China also wants to be seen now as promoting globalization, promoting free trade, particularly for countries in Asia that don't want to count on the U.S.. Vietnam is extremely reluctant to be as closely tied to the United States on security issues, given the Philippines are already moving in that direction.feedback

The Chinese government is quite concerned about the potential for direct confrontation with the Trump administration.feedback

China doesn't want trouble with the U.S., especially not in the run up to their own leadership transition this fall. But if it comes, they want President Trump to understand the consequences.feedback

It is no coincidence that Xi chose this year to make the trip up the magic mountain.feedback

It is going to be a long haul in persuading a lot of people that there is a different approach. But you don't have to throw the baby out with the bath water.feedback

If you want to find people who are going to rally together and say capitalism is fundamentally broken, Davos is not the place to go.feedback

Now the 'Pax Americana' is over. It's been coming … for a while. It's now here.feedback

The economics of the EU work for the Germans in a way that they don't work for the EU periphery. You could easily have a snap election in the U.K. before you get to real Brexit negotiations.feedback

I'm less worried about a trade war. I'm worried more about ... backing into inadvertent escalation like you saw on Taiwan. I'm more worried about a potential conflict over Taiwan, over North Korea, where the stakes are a lot higher and, frankly, where Trump doesn't have capable people yet who are advising him.feedback

The environment for the entire Trump administration on China is going to be much more challenging to negotiate and I don't think Trump has gotten his head around that yet. The problem is that [partnership] was the one thing that was a mechanism to get all of America's allies on board with U.S.-led trade as opposed to China-led trade.feedback

If you're going to tell America's allies that you're not going to give them this commitment, you're not going to follow through on what's most important for them for avoiding a China-led system and then you're beating up on China, you're going to end up with a lot of countries doing what the Philippines did under Obama, say the future is actually China, not the United States, I can't trust these guys.feedback

Wilbur Ross is obviously an extremely capable fellow. I think he's one of the best appointments they've made so far.feedback

The Russians will express their gravest possible concerns, and Erdogan will use this as an excuse to crack down on political enemies as much as possible.feedback

There's no question that this is yet another display of Erdogan not having adequate control of the security within his borders.feedback

Rex Tillerson is a very capable businessman. He is certainly a guy that knows his way around these blocks but ultimately I don't think he's going to be the one driving policy.feedback

You have to be worried that he isn't really capable of showing a lot of nuances. As a businessman that's fine…but there does need to be some diplomacy in your foreign policy. I don't believe that Trump actually has the policy chops to know the implications of what he's doing but I do know that American allies in Asia are desperately concerned that Trump is not a guy that can be counted on.feedback

There is something going on;there is a reason why Trump wanted to help the Russians – I don't know if it is because of economic interests with Russia or because of his advisers being close to them.feedback

The power of the American president is not absolute. There's a serious amount of pushback that he will get from important people, including from some people's he's appointed to posts.feedback

I was in Beijing a week ago, and at one point I said to an audience of government officials, it's going to be very interesting for you to work with an American leader who admires a lot of what you guys do.feedback

Trump has been accepting calls of congratulations from everybody, without the focus on usual protocol and absence of regular intelligence briefs. He knows there's a problem between China and Taiwan, but unlikely thought taking a call would cause an international incident. That's just lack of policy experience… but it puts him in a very tough place with Beijing.feedback

You improvise around this stuff and U.S. national interests will be damaged.feedback

American allies are freaked out about this in Asia. The Chinese are licking their lips – they're very happy about it.feedback

This means that everyone in Asia no longer sees the United States as a credible leader, so they have to go to China for leadership. There's a little bit of triumphalism in Beijing.feedback

It's precisely the role of American values that most underpinned its strength as the world's superpower...That view has already eroded dramatically over the past decade...but President Trump intends to upend it. America's footprint as the world's leader, and the role of Americanization in a globalized world, now pass the point of no return.feedback

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a dead letter in this environment, as is the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), [which is ] already on life support.feedback

A Trump presidency means the most significant hit to American power and leadership globally than any other event since the collapse of the Soviet Union.feedback

Maduro's just happy to have a smokescreen. All this just extends the economic and social damage. The long-term outcome is the same: Maduro can't hold on for much longer. But he can hold on for longer than many expected.feedback

After doing everything possible to slow down the recall effort of President Nicolas Maduro, the election commission finally suspended it all together. There's no legal mechanism left to remove the leadership, which means the resumption of major anti-Maduro street protests and demonstrations, and the state-supported repression to keep it under 'control.feedback

We'll see what we get from all of these member states, but the initial responses actually make me pretty optimistic.feedback

The geopolitical recession is really just picking up steam. And that's about a lack of global leadership. It's unilateralism from the U.S. and everyone else and it's also the delegitimization of a lot of development governments – the anti-establishment tendencies that we're seeing in the U.S., we're seeing in Europe – it's making it a lot harder for organizations like the IMF to do their jobs.feedback

They need to recognize that political instability and the changes in the political order are going to directly undermine their mandate.feedback

If they are not able to comment on that in the same way that they comment on a country which is not putting policies in place that will allow them to grow or meet the IMF mandate, then you've got challenges.feedback

Russia has the capabilities, and the timing also provides a motivation. The Kremlin strongly believes the U.S. government has been behind similar efforts against Russia – a la the Ukraine and Georgia revolutions.feedback

China does not want Europe to fall apart. They don't want a Trump presidency. China understands that what they need right now is global stability.feedback

There was a hope on the part of Britain that this was going to be a special friendship…That relationship is clearly not going to have the luster that a lot of people have expected.feedback

I'd be very surprised in five years' time if we see Apple having the kind of access to the Chinese consumer that they presently enjoy.feedback

Vladimir Putin is directly caught up in this. the $2 billion could be "a tiny fraction of how much the Kremlin has actually been laundering.feedback

Iran's government now accepts that sanctions represent a clear threat to the regime itself.feedback

Iran is unlikely to accept all those demands without something comprehensive in return–if at all. But the limits on success are clear. Both Republican lawmakers in Washington and US allies in Israel are likely to define success differently than the White house does. And the US is still asking for a lot of things that will be difficult for Iran's government to accept. The sides remain far apart.feedback

The US will ask Iran to halt production of 20% enriched material, eliminate the existing stockpile of that material, halt activity at the heavily fortified Fordo enrichment facility, accept a more intrusive inspection regime, and perhaps suspend the installation of new centrifuges.feedback

You would think, given that the EU is the world's largest common economic space and given how problematic Europe might have been or may still be for the US economy, someone would have something to say about it: they did not. And while the US is very willing to dispense advice to the Europeans, no one is bringing a cheque book. Clearly the American position is that Europe has to fix Europe's own problems – so, I really don't see a significant difference on Europe with either of these candidates.feedback

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