Ian Lyngen


Last quote by Ian Lyngen

There's not much on the horizon that the Treasury markets would like to see to reprice it in either direction, back to 2.5 or to the 2.3 level [on the 10-year yield]. I'm expecting that if the print comes off of the consensus, down about $67 bilion, that it could have implications for real GDP expectations in the first quarter.
NEW Mar 27 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Ian Lyngen is associated, including Fed, December, and stock. Most recently, Ian Lyngen has been quoted saying: “You're right ahead of Frexit. There's a lot of data between now and March. I do think we might see better odds priced in. I certainly think the Fed would like to go. They just need the cover of the data and other events.” in the article A rate hike is not a lock - but the odds just moved higher.
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Ian Lyngen quotes

The world is coming to the realization that politics in Washington could delay any economic impact from Trumponomics.

The response to Trump provided the Fed enough cover to move forward with the process of normalization. There are clear worries about the secondary impact of what a tighter monetary policy is going to do.

When we got the Trump victory we saw a sharp rally in Treasuries that was very short-lived and then this massive sell-off. The sell-off is a function of inflation expectations. It highlights the risks of a move toward protectionism; it highlights a lot of the traditional pro-business GOP platforms.

We're in the process of consolidating and establishing a range within this new higher yield environment. It's not exciting, but given the magnitude of the move we've seen, this is relatively normal for the Treasury market.

The typical indirect buyer was more cautious at today's auction in light of the recent backup in yield and the near term uncertainty associated with the new president.

The markets are scared you could see a material tightening of financial conditions without the Fed doing anything.

You do have a presidential election that could in and of itself tighten financial conditions. I'm not quite surprised by the lack of interest in the employment series.

We do not think they have to change the statement in any meaningful way. If there is a change, it will most likely be to the hawkish side and hint that the Fed is on track to follow through with their rate hike in December. We don't think they'll actually say 'next meeting,' but that's the risk.

We're assuming the Fed makes some tweaks to the language but does not explicitly put the form of a calendar guidance into it. I don't think they need to. If you look last year at this time, the market was only pricing in a 37 percent chance of a hike in December. It seems like there was a need to be more explicit.

We could do it tomorrow if we get a strong GDP number. That's well within the range of possibilities.

The magnitude of the yield move was not particularly striking, but it was the fact that it challenged every meaningful support level with little in terms of fundamental impetus.

To break out above 2 percent, we need to do some significant consolidation and build a good volume base between here and 1.89. That was the top of the range that was in place in late spring this year.

I think that uncertainty about what the Fed statement next week is going to look like added some marginal caution to the two-year auction.

What they did in 2015 really sets up next week's meeting to be a more potentially tradeable event than the normal kind of sleepy event that we might have otherwise expected it to be. When you have an event where there's a large enough divergence of opinion, the price action surrounding the event can be decisive. …They definitely lay the groundwork for a tightening in December at next week's meeting, and that definitely has bearish implications.

Last week, Treasuries rallied because Chinese stocks fell and today Chinese stocks fell, but we didn't rally, suggesting the panic from last week seems to have subsided.

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