Ian Lyngen

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We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Ian Lyngen is associated, including Fed, December, and stock. Most recently, Ian Lyngen has been quoted saying: “BLS is not a perfect gauge of how many jobs are being created, but it's the one with the longest history and it's the one the markets are watching.” in the article Next up for markets: The jobs number that blindsided economists last month.
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Ian Lyngen quotes

You're right ahead of Frexit. There's a lot of data between now and March. I do think we might see better odds priced in. I certainly think the Fed would like to go. They just need the cover of the data and other events.feedback

There's been a lot of chatter about how she's going to put March back on the table. Of course, she's going to say every meeting is live. I think it's a matter of nuance; how much jawboning does she attempt to do; how adamantly does she stress that a March rate hike is a possibility, how emphatically is she going to tell us each meeting is in play?feedback

That added to the bearish price action that was already in place.. .it was more contributing to the negative tone that was in place. His comments were worth about two basis points.feedback

This would waste the 'honeymoon period' that the administration has to enact legislation. In that context, House Speaker Paul Ryan's statement late last week that tax cuts would be shelved until after healthcare reform and Trump's statement that healthcare might not see changes until 2018 leaves the Congressional logjam building much sooner-than-expected and the market more open to a retracement to lower yields as probabilities attached to a paradigm shift in rates fall.feedback

The bulk of the optimism has been priced in and now it's up to the incoming administration to justify. If the administration doesn't prioritize the economic and fiscal parts of the platform first, the idea is it will be harder for Trump to really push through his agenda, and later it becomes more difficult. If he goes with 'build the wall first,' he'll never get to stimulus or tax cuts.feedback

The big story is retail sales and how does that figure into consumption.feedback

The comments about the pharma business weighed down risk assets. The Treasury market is modestly higher as a result of the press conference. It's hard to point to any particular set of comments that triggered the move other than just the general tone related to some of the leaks and implied international relations tensions.feedback

To be fair, there isn't a great deal known about the event–but presumably the President-elect will be fielding policy-relevant questions from his perch at the Trump Tower. It's not the inauguration, so we're doubtful it will be scripted or over-polished; which sets up the event to be more tradeable, if not necessarily insightful on the specifics of his initial plans while in the White House.feedback

The Treasury market is pricing in a disappointing [jobs] number, versus the consensus. If we get a 170,000 nonfarm payrolls or higher, that will be a negative for the Treasury market, and we'll get a relatively quick reversal of this bid. We have priced in so much optimism in terms of real growth in the new year and what the Trump administration can deliver in terms of fiscal stimulus.feedback

The world is coming to the realization that politics in Washington could delay any economic impact from Trumponomics.feedback

The response to Trump provided the Fed enough cover to move forward with the process of normalization. There are clear worries about the secondary impact of what a tighter monetary policy is going to do.feedback

When we got the Trump victory we saw a sharp rally in Treasuries that was very short-lived and then this massive sell-off. The sell-off is a function of inflation expectations. It highlights the risks of a move toward protectionism; it highlights a lot of the traditional pro-business GOP platforms.feedback

We're in the process of consolidating and establishing a range within this new higher yield environment. It's not exciting, but given the magnitude of the move we've seen, this is relatively normal for the Treasury market.feedback

The typical indirect buyer was more cautious at today's auction in light of the recent backup in yield and the near term uncertainty associated with the new president.feedback

The markets are scared you could see a material tightening of financial conditions without the Fed doing anything.feedback

You do have a presidential election that could in and of itself tighten financial conditions. I'm not quite surprised by the lack of interest in the employment series.feedback

We do not think they have to change the statement in any meaningful way. If there is a change, it will most likely be to the hawkish side and hint that the Fed is on track to follow through with their rate hike in December. We don't think they'll actually say 'next meeting,' but that's the risk.feedback

We're assuming the Fed makes some tweaks to the language but does not explicitly put the form of a calendar guidance into it. I don't think they need to. If you look last year at this time, the market was only pricing in a 37 percent chance of a hike in December. It seems like there was a need to be more explicit.feedback

We could do it tomorrow if we get a strong GDP number. That's well within the range of possibilities.feedback

The magnitude of the yield move was not particularly striking, but it was the fact that it challenged every meaningful support level with little in terms of fundamental impetus.feedback

To break out above 2 percent, we need to do some significant consolidation and build a good volume base between here and 1.89. That was the top of the range that was in place in late spring this year.feedback

I think that uncertainty about what the Fed statement next week is going to look like added some marginal caution to the two-year auction.feedback

What they did in 2015 really sets up next week's meeting to be a more potentially tradeable event than the normal kind of sleepy event that we might have otherwise expected it to be. When you have an event where there's a large enough divergence of opinion, the price action surrounding the event can be decisive. …They definitely lay the groundwork for a tightening in December at next week's meeting, and that definitely has bearish implications.feedback

Last week, Treasuries rallied because Chinese stocks fell and today Chinese stocks fell, but we didn't rally, suggesting the panic from last week seems to have subsided.feedback

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