Ian Lyngen

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Last quote by Ian Lyngen

The second quarter GDP revisions were strong, and when coupled with the first quarter revisions, the overall level seems relatively impressive for the first half of the year.feedback
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Aug 30 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Ian Lyngen is associated, including Fed, December, and stock. Most recently, Ian Lyngen has been quoted saying: “I think the market is anticipating a relatively hawkish Fed with a focus on the optimistic growth picture and a continued emphasis on the softer inflation trend. I don't think this is the time when they're going to say this is something cyclical or coincidental.” in the article This is what the markets are looking for from the Fed Wednesday.
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Ian Lyngen quotes

Jul 03 2017

I think the expectations are for the Fed to confirm their tapering intentions. I think a September taper has become very consensus. If you see a uniform view reflected within the minutes, I think it's going to be bearish in the Treasury market because it suggests there will be follow-through with the tapering and hiking. If there's a divergence, it would be bullish.feedback

Jul 03 2017

I certainly don't think we'll get a rate hike in July, but I do think there's a chance we'll get the balance sheet announcement in July. You could make a case for September. My thought is they want to keep the balance sheet discussion separate as much as possible.feedback

Jun 08 2017

The release of Comey's opening statement for his Thursday testimony late in the day by the Senate intelligence committee was a major event and was interpreted as risk-positive by the market since (according to our read) it did not appear to offer a smoking gun against the administration.feedback

Jun 02 2017

I think it's going to be largely a technical trade. I think we come in Monday morning and the market tries to re-trade the jobs data ... what the data means and what it implies for monetary policy. I think there will be an opportunity for more volatility early in the week, and then we'll be back to more of the same ... a holding pattern, limited new information and watching the corporate deal flow.feedback

Jun 02 2017

While the Fed still struggles to go in June, the one big takeaway from this report is that a September rate hike is largely off the table. September was always going to be a struggle because of its proximity to the debt ceiling debate.feedback

May 02 2017

BLS is not a perfect gauge of how many jobs are being created, but it's the one with the longest history and it's the one the markets are watching.feedback

May 02 2017 - Trump Presidency

It missed by [165,000] last month, so it's credibility as a predictive measure has been brought into question. More importantly it occurs just hours before the FOMC announcement, and now with Trump saying we could use a good shutdown in September, the political tensions continue to heat up in Washington. I would suspect ADP would be a sideshow to the political show.feedback

Apr 27 2017

It's an open question how disappointing GDP will be and if it's priced in.feedback

Apr 17 2017

There's one rate hike priced in and about a 10 percent chance of a second one.feedback

Apr 04 2017

Generally speaking, the rally we've seen over the course of the last three weeks, or effectively, since the March FOMC meeting, has been a function of people rethinking Trumponomics and the potential for the administration to deliver anything in terms of real economic growth in the near to medium term.feedback

Apr 04 2017 - China

The episode could leave the market with broader concerns about the U.S. China relationship, so he has a fine line to walk between pushing forward his political agend and being diplomatic. The risks are skewed towards more political uncertainty than any clear direction on the China, U.S. relationship.feedback

Apr 04 2017 - Trumpcare

The opposition that Trump has already started to see in congress, whether it was in confirming his cabinet and their recent pulling of the health care bill, all of this suggests that the pro-business initiatives the market might have been expecting from Trump may have been delayed or permanently shelved. The political capital that needs to be expended to get the non-economic changes through, the less momentum and support Trump will ultimately have for his market-friendly initiatives.feedback

Mar 28 2017 - Unemployment

The correlation isn't as strong for the month-over-month change in nonfarm payrolls than it is for the unemployment rate.feedback

Mar 27 2017

There's not much on the horizon that the Treasury markets would like to see to reprice it in either direction, back to 2.5 or to the 2.3 level [on the 10-year yield]. I'm expecting that if the print comes off of the consensus, down about $67 bilion, that it could have implications for real GDP expectations in the first quarter.feedback

Mar 10 2017

Treasuries are trading better following the release -- it's a bit counterintuitive in the context of a +235k NFP print, but we'd argued that the stronger number was already priced-in. From here, we're looking for a bit more upside with an acknowledgment that this data locks in the March 15 rate-hike.feedback

Feb 15 2017

You're right ahead of Frexit. There's a lot of data between now and March. I do think we might see better odds priced in. I certainly think the Fed would like to go. They just need the cover of the data and other events.feedback

Feb 13 2017 - Federal Reserve

There's been a lot of chatter about how she's going to put March back on the table. Of course, she's going to say every meeting is live. I think it's a matter of nuance; how much jawboning does she attempt to do; how adamantly does she stress that a March rate hike is a possibility, how emphatically is she going to tell us each meeting is in play?feedback

Feb 09 2017

That added to the bearish price action that was already in place.. .it was more contributing to the negative tone that was in place. His comments were worth about two basis points.feedback

Feb 09 2017

People were talking about it.feedback

Feb 07 2017

This would waste the 'honeymoon period' that the administration has to enact legislation. In that context, House Speaker Paul Ryan's statement late last week that tax cuts would be shelved until after healthcare reform and Trump's statement that healthcare might not see changes until 2018 leaves the Congressional logjam building much sooner-than-expected and the market more open to a retracement to lower yields as probabilities attached to a paradigm shift in rates fall.feedback

Jan 12 2017

The bulk of the optimism has been priced in and now it's up to the incoming administration to justify. If the administration doesn't prioritize the economic and fiscal parts of the platform first, the idea is it will be harder for Trump to really push through his agenda, and later it becomes more difficult. If he goes with 'build the wall first,' he'll never get to stimulus or tax cuts.feedback

Jan 12 2017

The big story is retail sales and how does that figure into consumption.feedback

Jan 11 2017

The comments about the pharma business weighed down risk assets. The Treasury market is modestly higher as a result of the press conference. It's hard to point to any particular set of comments that triggered the move other than just the general tone related to some of the leaks and implied international relations tensions.feedback

Jan 11 2017 - Trump Tower

To be fair, there isn't a great deal known about the event–but presumably the President-elect will be fielding policy-relevant questions from his perch at the Trump Tower. It's not the inauguration, so we're doubtful it will be scripted or over-polished; which sets up the event to be more tradeable, if not necessarily insightful on the specifics of his initial plans while in the White House.feedback

Jan 05 2017

The Treasury market is pricing in a disappointing [jobs] number, versus the consensus. If we get a 170,000 nonfarm payrolls or higher, that will be a negative for the Treasury market, and we'll get a relatively quick reversal of this bid. We have priced in so much optimism in terms of real growth in the new year and what the Trump administration can deliver in terms of fiscal stimulus.feedback

Jan 05 2017

The world is coming to the realization that politics in Washington could delay any economic impact from Trumponomics.feedback

Jan 04 2017 - UBS

The response to Trump provided the Fed enough cover to move forward with the process of normalization. There are clear worries about the secondary impact of what a tighter monetary policy is going to do.feedback

Nov 18 2016 - Republican Party

When we got the Trump victory we saw a sharp rally in Treasuries that was very short-lived and then this massive sell-off. The sell-off is a function of inflation expectations. It highlights the risks of a move toward protectionism; it highlights a lot of the traditional pro-business GOP platforms.feedback

Nov 18 2016

We're in the process of consolidating and establishing a range within this new higher yield environment. It's not exciting, but given the magnitude of the move we've seen, this is relatively normal for the Treasury market.feedback

Nov 09 2016

This is a very significant move.feedback

Nov 09 2016

The typical indirect buyer was more cautious at today's auction in light of the recent backup in yield and the near term uncertainty associated with the new president.feedback

Nov 03 2016

The markets are scared you could see a material tightening of financial conditions without the Fed doing anything.feedback

Nov 03 2016

You do have a presidential election that could in and of itself tighten financial conditions. I'm not quite surprised by the lack of interest in the employment series.feedback

Nov 01 2016

We do not think they have to change the statement in any meaningful way. If there is a change, it will most likely be to the hawkish side and hint that the Fed is on track to follow through with their rate hike in December. We don't think they'll actually say 'next meeting,' but that's the risk.feedback

Nov 01 2016

We're assuming the Fed makes some tweaks to the language but does not explicitly put the form of a calendar guidance into it. I don't think they need to. If you look last year at this time, the market was only pricing in a 37 percent chance of a hike in December. It seems like there was a need to be more explicit.feedback

Oct 27 2016

We could do it tomorrow if we get a strong GDP number. That's well within the range of possibilities.feedback

Oct 27 2016

The magnitude of the yield move was not particularly striking, but it was the fact that it challenged every meaningful support level with little in terms of fundamental impetus.feedback

Oct 27 2016

To break out above 2 percent, we need to do some significant consolidation and build a good volume base between here and 1.89. That was the top of the range that was in place in late spring this year.feedback

Oct 25 2016

I think that uncertainty about what the Fed statement next week is going to look like added some marginal caution to the two-year auction.feedback

Oct 25 2016

What they did in 2015 really sets up next week's meeting to be a more potentially tradeable event than the normal kind of sleepy event that we might have otherwise expected it to be. When you have an event where there's a large enough divergence of opinion, the price action surrounding the event can be decisive. …They definitely lay the groundwork for a tightening in December at next week's meeting, and that definitely has bearish implications.feedback

Jan 11 2016

Last week, Treasuries rallied because Chinese stocks fell and today Chinese stocks fell, but we didn't rally, suggesting the panic from last week seems to have subsided.feedback

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