Last quote by Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin quotes
I don't see how the environment gets much better for these retailers. But they still have room to execute changes and it will be interesting to see how that helps them.
At two times sales, the S&P 500 is at its highest valuation point from a revenue perspective since the tech bubble.
I could see a flow of currency back into U.S. dollar assets as our interest rates are incrementally more attractive. That could, actually, keep the dollar higher than we want and could stymie some of our growth plans.
At worst it is the same, you push it into next year and perhaps rotate into something that's cheap that could benefit once Q4 earnings come out and that would be European large caps, even the Japanese large caps, that would benefit from a weaker currency and a boost in export growth.
The one bullish argument is stocks have been cheap relative to bonds, but guess what? The 10-year is nearly 2.50 and headed toward 3.
I think at some point, we're going to need some fundamentals to substantiate the expectations that are built in. I think there's some quick hit. If you could lower the corporate tax rate and do it quickly, that could be a bounce [for stocks].
Interest rates and oil prices tend to move closely together. It's kind of geared to growth. The oil price hike over the last couple of weeks you could argue is supply related rather than demand. At least based on where oil prices are, interest rates are about right.
From a technical standpoint, the situation has improved, even though valuations are stretched. Now it's just a matter of waiting for the fundamentals to catch up with what the expectations are.
We had a market that was already somewhat frothy to begin with and now we've ramped it up to the next level.
Investors worried about Trump's capricious personality were comforted by his moderate acceptance speech. He's ratcheted back his extreme policies and behaviors. I think that's the root of today's enthusiasm.
Certainly growth of interest rates would tend to increase the value of the dollar, but inflation running ahead of interest rates would diminish the dollar.
If Trump is going to … make good on his promise to the people that brought him into office, that split between profits and wages is going to have to tilt back toward wages.
We knew that if anything happens globally it's going to impact the largest companies, particularly those that [will] enjoy the lowest corporate tax rates.
The market reaction of the Trump victory was as surprising as the Trump victory itself.
And unless he can get productivity going, or unless he can get growth going, a lot it's likely going to be at the expense of profits.
Seemingly quiet trading on the surface masks the turbulence that's going on underneath.
It was an orderly sort of trade. Small caps outperformed larger caps. Domestic outperformed international. Interest rates – this was a blood bath in the bond market. That was dramatic. It was far from what I suspected. I thought it would be mostly point-and-click orderly sell-off today. It was an orderly trade all day.
It sounds like investors are willing to take a 'wait and see' between now and inauguration day. You want to see who he is bringing in to policymaking positions, as a starting point. This is a long-dated pendulum and it has a lot more to play out.
The market's response to the Trump triumph is as surprising as the triumph itself.
Will she be pulled to the left, as we suspect, and if she is, will there be a Democratic Senate to help facilitate those approvals?
If PredictIt is right, we're setting up for the second best investment scenario with an average annual return of 7.5 percent historically.
I will say for the Brexit vote, the betting sites had 85 percent chance of Britain remaining before Brexit. But who knows.
The investment markets concur. Since September 26th, the Mexican peso, a real time indicator of Trump's political prospects, rallied 6.6 percent against the U.S. dollar, reversing a 13 percent slide that commenced last April. Meanwhile, biotech, candidate Clinton's political piñata, has sagged versus the Nasdaq. Biotechs slid eight percent relative to the Nasdaq since late September, reflecting Clinton's improving chances.
I think those stats that I described are priced in. So if things change from the current path, we should get some volatility. I don't think the peso has rallied as much as it should … it could recover more.
It's consistent with the strong confidence we're seeing.
I'm not sure what she's going to say. The minutes spoke for themselves. They're not going to tighten rates right before the election.
I think they're important. It just focuses the attention on the environment, on credit conditions and these low interest rates. We started the year budgeting for four interest rate hikes this year.
The good news is analysts are expecting revenues to increase year over year this quarter. Hopefully we'll see earnings follow along, but it's a slow and steady process.
If inflation moves higher and interest rates lag, that could be the catalyst for a move higher.
Early indications suggest Hillary won the debate; at least didn't lose. Futures are higher and the peso is rallying.
If she wins, we'll get a rally (Tuesday).
He's campaigning as the outsider who wants to break some glass, and with it there's a 'damn the consequences.' I do think there's a fair amount of headline and uncertainty risk associated with a Trump presidency. On the flip side, I think Clinton is the consummate insider, who will deliver more of the same. That would be more a certainty factor.
We could see a Brexit type of reaction ? down dramatically, then kind of rebound back when people come to their senses and see he's not going to tear the whole place apart. Nothing really fundamental will change. Presidents don't take office to shut companies down and to get rid of their workers. Their job is to enhance the economy and grow.
In many respects, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan have a greater influence over our market than the Fed does. You're seeing somewhat of a pause in European Central Bank and Bank of Japan policy and that's impacting the global bond market.
If you get any kind of pullback. ... The European Central Bank program ends in March 2017. If there's any indication that's not going to be extended, that will impact the stock market.
There's no question about central banks running interference and creating high valuations but the fact is they are not necessarily going to simply turn off spigot and run away. They recognize that there is an addiction here and we're going to have to slowly get off of this liquidity and do it in a gradual way.
This is something that has been created by the central banks and we're going to have to work our way out. But I don't think this is necessarily the next crisis that is going to cause a huge crater.
I think this is what withdrawal looks like for an addict.
They tend to look at, even though the stock market could be upset, they tend to look at credit markets. Even though yields are up, spreads are OK.
I would still view it as an opportunity to buy instead of getting out of the market altogether.
Reading the tea leaves, given that the financials are leading the way higher, you've got one of the areas of the market that would benefit from higher rates.
It's oil and then we've got Jackson Hole hanging over us, and there is always some surprise that comes out of Jackson Hole.
We had a disappointing retail sales report. ... Perhaps investors are reassessing the state of the economy.
I don't think they're going to fold up their tents and give up.
Remarkably, department store sales are lower than they were in 2000.
We're the last hoorah for yield.
This keeps them doing nothing.
I think a lot of people are trying to reconcile this low investment in cap ex and business spending with the strong jobs number. It's certainly entirely possible they can go hand in hand.
When you look at services and leisure, these aren't the highest quality jobs, but incomes are going up.
If businesses aren't investing in the economy and productivity, they'll still hire people.
She wants to cut U.S. oil consumption by a third and replace it with 500 million solar panels.
I would say we would see a risk-off scenario if that's the case.
There are remarkably more similarities than differences. That's the irony of this whole thing. This is such a bitter fight, and yet many of their core strategies are similar, which is the first time I've seen that in a long time. I'm not sure I'd want to be Bank of America in here.
I think they at least need to put the rhetoric out there that a hike is on the table. My sense is their line of thinking before Brexit has been restored. That would mean there's at least one hike on the table this year for them.
To me it doesn't seem like the type of market where you want to stick your neck out too far.
I'm hopeful it will show the U.S. banks have been pretty much impervious to the vagaries of Europe. I think that's an important thing, but it will be interesting to see what JPMorgan has to say about their London capital markets operation.
Lowering interest rates there is just going to make the pound go lower and fuel the dollar. Right now, I would say the U.K. market's on sale. The price of a latte in London is now on a purchasing power equivalent basis, more like a latte in New York. It hasn't been like that in 30 years. The British pound is actually fairly valued.
There was a period in 1955 when bonds yielded less than stocks. But for the most part, bonds offer higher yields than equities so as a result, anyone looking for income for retirement didn't have to think twice about what a retirement portfolio should look like.
We have to be prepared for more uncertainty and more volatility. I guess the bottom line is this is the domino that fell, and whether it's the first domino in a series or an isolated domino in Britain, we don't know yet. It's like revisiting 2011 all over again. I would say of all of the exits the British is the cleanest because they don't have the currency. Once you get into a situation with a euro zone country that gets way more complicated.
It's going to be a slow moving train. It's calmed down for now – but it hasn't calmed down. (The markets are) on heightened alert, but unfortunately it's moving at the pace of policy, not at the pace of the markets.
(This year) has really been an arid desert in new issuance and equity ... I'm encouraged that the success here will spawn other IPOs.
Dividends have become a major theme in this environment.
It's all related. Oil is moving higher on the diminished threat of higher rates.
These are some important data points and my sense is the investment community is in a 'good news is bad news' frame of mind right now.
They are ready to pull the trigger on a rate increase in June.
I think the equity market's holding up pretty well considering oil is as down as much as it is. Once a bottom was put in oil in the 20s then the uncertainty surrounding oil and its impact surrounding oil and the financial markets certainly dissipated.
I do think the recession scenario is off the table but I think the equity rally we had was one ... fueled by very short-term technical factors. The more investors digest the data, whether economic data, corporate profits, or new data, the less they want to own U.S. large-cap stocks. U.S. equities are priced for a global expansion that is not in the cards.
If you go back a couple weeks, it was really the positive retail sales report that kind of got us out of the funk.
Perhaps today's report would offer investors a little more comfort that the worst is behind us. Certainly the U.S. is the swing producer and seeing the rig count fall certainly leads to this belief that production would fall.
It's weighing on stocks more broadly given its size and dominance.
I think it's earnings driving the market today and a disappointing result and outlook by Apple.
I think we're going to hear from probably a quarter of the S&P 500 this week. By the end of the week, it'll give everybody a sense of what's going on with earnings. Analysts forecasts for Q4 were pretty ugly – down 6 percent or so.
I actually am encouraged to see the market drop so we can just get to fair value and take it from there, then it is really determined by the path of the economy, and profits and revenues.
When expectations are as high as they are, that's a problem.
I think investors believe fears in China are maybe overblown. I also find it's interesting the market seems somewhat less sensitive to changes in oil prices these days.
Markets tend to drop every time Beijing intervenes. Investors sense desperation.