Last quote by Jakob Christensen
Jakob Christensen quotes
(Index entry) is a significant move for Argentina and it will help bring down borrowing costs. It will also provide support for the peso.
Bond investors are quite concerned about their holdings in Turkey ... People are questioning whether the central bank will have the independence to fight the rise in inflation.
The developments we have seen in the offshore money market are a sign of the authorities trying to make it more expensive to short the offshore yuan. It seems like they are squeezing out the shorts and they are succeeding with that.
It's very important to see what the Fed communicates, and whether they are more hawkish in that light.
Emerging market stocks are taking some comfort in the fact that the selloff in U.S. bond markets that caused yields to rise quite significantly - normally a negative for emerging markets - is showing signs of stabilisation ahead of the Fed meeting.
That would be positive for emerging market currencies.
Half the market thought they would lose its investment grade rating, so that is giving the currency some tailwind. But that's not to say they are off the hook.
The Italy concern was maybe too much priced in, so we saw a reversal. The fear that we may have seen a meltdown in Italy, which could hit global risk sentiment, is waning with the expectation that we will get a new government of some sort.
If they move, it will be to non-investment grade, but that would mean a big divergence in the ratings.
We have been sceptical about the OPEC cuts all along - we find it very hard to see them agreeing to something substantial.
Overall this goes with our view that emerging markets are doing fairly well - the tide has to some extent turned.
Clearly the fairly strong macro economic management, together with higher oil prices, is bringing some results (for Russia) and we are looking for positive growth possibly in Q4 and definitely in 2017.
The general fear that Trump would try to restrict bilateral trade agreements vis-à-vis a host of countries ... It could set off a global race for protectionism.
After its recent underperformance the Mexican peso was probably the most undervalued EM currency around and market positioning compared to historical terms is the most stretched short it can be. If there is any indication that Trump won't win, or Clinton is gaining momentum, or she wins the debate like last night, the market is extremely sensitive and you could have a strong downward move in the dollar/Mexican peso cross.
If (the BOJ) cut interest rates, the yen might weaken and pressure Asian emerging markets but on the other hand it would also signal a more relaxed monetary stance which from a carry trade perspective makes it more interesting to borrow in yen and place it in high-yielding EM curencies.
China is doing fairly well, and that was what we expected. Construction activity in China is fairly good.
Growth is okay in many emerging markets and inflation pressures are under control - that allows many emerging markets to lower interest rates which is good for stocks and growth.