Last quote by James Bullard
James Bullard quotes
Same with immigration. Even a successful immigration reform ... would change the composition of the labor force over time. That would be something that would have possibly a big impact but over five to ten years.
Markets are currently putting a high probability on a December move by the FOMC. I'm leaning towards supporting that.
A single policy-rate increase, possibly in December, may be sufficient to move monetary policy to a neutral setting.
Equities and foreign exchange rates have been re-priced, but are well within the experience of the past year.
There were a lot of predictions that if the election went the way of Republicans and President-elect Donald Trump then there would be great deal of volatility, but that has not materialised so far.
If there is a change of regime, monetary policy would have to adjust.
With real safe rates of return exceptionally low and not expected to rise soon, interest rates should be expected to stay exceptionally low during the forecast horizon.
There seems to be no urgency now to reduce the size (of the Fed's balance sheet).
We still have got this disconnect between markets and the Fed.
In the aftermath of Brexit people want to wait and see and I'm happy to go with that for now. There's really no rush.
An older narrative that the Bank has been using since the financial crisis ended has now likely outlived its usefulness, and so it is being replaced by a new narrative. The hallmark of the new narrative is to think of medium- and longer-term macroeconomic outcomes in terms of regimes.
This is not too surprising given our liftoff in December and the policy of the committee which has been to try to normalise rates slowly and gradually over time. So my idea is that if all goes well this will come off very smoothly.
I don't think I'd want to commit to a particular number. The labor market reports have many different aspects to them and you'd have to look at the totality of the report.
It would take a very dire report to undo all the charts that I showed you and say that the labor markets were not strong, all of a sudden.
I do not think Brexit is the global financial event that it's being made out to be.
Even if there's a leave vote, all that means is that you would restart trade negotiations and this would lead to new trade arrangements. I think that there's a lot of continuity between the day before the Brexit vote and the day after.
I'm keeping an open mind, I want to look at the data as it's available at the meeting.
The Fed has moved during political cycles in the past. the central bank started a tightening cycle during the 2004 presidential election year.
Monetary policy is largely independent of the political process. And one of the things I think is you can't win an election by talking about whether the Fed should move right or move left.
This is an important factor supporting the FOMC view on the expected path of the policy rate.
If unconventional monetary policy is ineffective, then the global equilibrium may be overly volatile.
As it turns out, the decision to pause seems to have put more weight on the global and U.S. growth downgrade. The relatively minor downgrades... suggest that the next rate increase may not be far off provided that the economy evolves as expected.
As it turns out, the decision to pause seems to have put more weight on the global and U.S. growth downgrade.
The relatively minor downgrades... suggest that the next rate increase may not be far off provided that the economy evolves as expected.
We didn't do it, so now we can look at April and see what the data look like when we get to April.
I'd like to see further stabilization in inflation expectations. They are stabilizing, I think that's a hopeful sign, and I hope they will continue to go up. They seem to be highly correlated with oil prices and that's disturbing.
What's worrying me is that ... it looks like a commitment, it looks like a freight train.
We are at a lower trend growth rate. The G-7 economies are not growing very fast. And China is slowing down, so you just don't have as much global growth as you once had.
Two important pillars of the 2015 case for U.S. monetary policy normalization have changed.
We try to get the best information we have… and we talk to everybody. But I don't think we have any better information than anybody else.
I don't think the Chinese government has that good information.