Jan Hatzius

We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Jan Hatzius is associated, including Fed and September. Most recently, Jan Hatzius has been quoted saying: “At the margin, (Wednesday's) FCI move has increased our conviction that the committee will need to deliver more tightening than priced in the markets at this point.” in the article Goldman's Hatzius: The market is wrong about the Fed.

Jan Hatzius quotes

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At the margin, (Wednesday's) FCI move has increased our conviction that the committee will need to deliver more tightening than priced in the markets at this point.

We feel quite confident that they were not aiming for a large easing in financial conditions. After all, the primary point of hiking rates is to tighten financial conditions, perhaps not suddenly but at least gradually over time.

If you get a sharp tightening, we might regret this change. But our best guess is that won't happen.

I don't think you should take this 235,000 at face value. We've seen almost 100,000 jobs added in the construction sector in the last two months, and the warm winter, I think, had something to do with that. We should expect some payback over the next month, or two months, or maybe three months. I think four hikes is definitely possible. I think the Fed's showing that going every three months is something that they are, in principle, comfortable with. Of course, it always depends on how the numbers come in and what happens to financial conditions.

I think it's still an open question to some degree ... the fiscal policies are generally growth supportive [versus the] potential drag from trade and immigration policies, which are potentially more negative. Our view in 2017 and 2018 is that growth is going to be a little better than we thought prior to the election, because we think the fiscal policies are going to outweigh.

Part of what we've seen, this very sizeable move in many markets, is just a normalization. I think there is some further room to run,especially if we do see some fiscal boost on top of what's already in the economy.

There's still plenty of time, I no longer have a dovish view on U.S. monetary policy but I would say there is still a very good dovish case on Europe.

The primary driver here is not valuation but really interest rate differentials. If we are right that the Fed moves the funds rate up more than what the markets currently pricing … that's generally a relatively good indicator to watch.

It's the usual noise. I think a lot of other indicators are looking better this quarter.

Back in the spring, the committee was ready to go in June or July, but then the weak May payroll report and the Brexit vote interfered.

151,000 is clearly about their estimate of what it takes to improve the labor market over time.

Policymakers will have an incentive to keep their options open, and plenty of opportunities to guide market expectations, should they need to.

We think they probably are underpricing [the chances of a rate hike]. We have a 25 percent probability for a hike at the September meeting. So, we don't think it's going to happen but it's possible. Then, we've got 40 percent for the December meeting.

We now expect the (British) economy to enter a mild recession by early 2017.

With the unemployment rate at 4.7 percent, wage growth clearly picking up, and financial conditions much easier, there is likely a limit to how long the Fed's pause can last.

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