Jane Foley - Rabobank International


Last quote by Jane Foley

The sell on the fact reaction experienced by the pound signals that the market was expecting a more hawkish set of minutes. For now these minutes support the 'one and done' view. However, Carney may have something a little more hawkish up his sleeve at his press conference. Specifically the market will be watching to see if he repeats his August comments about slower than otherwise investment leading to increased risk of capacity constraints.feedback
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Nov 02 2017
This page is completely dedicated to what Jane Foley has to say. All of Jane Foley’s quotes are organized here by date and topic. The most recent quote attributed to Jane Foley came from an article called Sterling slips on uncertainty over politics, rate outlook: “So there is this cloud of uncertainty, not just related to the progress of Brexit talks but also to the divisions within the governing party.”.
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Jane Foley quotes

Aug 08 2017

We've come to an interesting juncture with respect to the dollar because it's been on the backfoot all year – it's been the weakest-performing G10 currency – and we've come to a position where the market is now short. You can argue that a lot of the good news that was put into the dollar at the end of the year is now out of the price. Does that mean the dollar is now more sensitive to better news?feedback

Jun 20 2017

The politics have the potential for a fair amount of volatility for sterling over the next few weeks and next few months in terms of the deals that are likely to be done.feedback

Jun 08 2017

We do not expect the ECB to change its forward guidance today. Therefore we see risk that EUR bulls will be disappointed by a dovish tone from Draghi today.feedback

Jun 05 2017 - Qatar

The markets will be watching opinion polls to judge what, if any, impact this latest round of terror is having.feedback

May 31 2017

Due to the volatility that can be caused by major political events such as elections, I think it is the case that many investors avoid currency trading close to such an event with only speculators choosing to be involved close to the date of a ballot. This time the market is unusually short of GBP ahead of this election. This suggests scope for a relief rally in GBP after the election. That said, the fact that opinion polls are fairly sure of the result this time suggests that volatility on the election result should be limited.feedback

May 30 2017 - Populism

We always knew Italy was going to come back into the market's sights, but I think people thought we would have a longer stay of execution. It does seem like the market will have to face worries about elections and populism again over the summer. That of course is a drag for the euro.feedback

May 19 2017 - Trump Presidency

The market is fearful now that the cuts in regulation, the tax incentives, etc., just won't be forthcoming because the administration will be so busy fire-fighting scandals, it won't be able to push through any of its promises.feedback

May 16 2017 - Trump-Merkel

(President) Macron's choice of a Republican prime minister will have boosted his chances of a parliamentary majority next month. The common ground between him and (Chancellor Angela) Merkel as noted in Monday's meeting and the chancellor's election success in regional elections at the weekend are all EUR positive factors. Indeed, the better political backdrop in Europe is in contrast to the latest scandal involving (President Donald) Trump and Russia.feedback

May 15 2017 - Oil

The commodity currencies story is quite clear and it's very much linked around oil (prices). There had been quite a large selloff in currencies such as the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, and they were probably quite ripe for some short covering on the news we had from Saudi and Russia over the weekend.feedback

May 09 2017

$1.30 has become a big psychological level now. The big driver for sterling over the past month or so has been short-covering, but whether people want to buy it and push it above $1.30 is another (matter).feedback

May 08 2017 - French Election Results

Over the next couple of months, the market will turn its attention back to the economy, back to the debate about whether the European Central Bank can lift some of its accommodation perhaps early next year.feedback

May 08 2017 - French Election Results

Clearly it (the euro) is off the overnight highs and I think this is purely because the win that we had in France was so well priced in.feedback

May 03 2017

Better economic data in the eurozone suggests that over the next few months it is likely that the debate over a potential reduction in ECB stimulus will evolve.feedback

Apr 28 2017 - Brexit

Even though we had a short squeeze last week, the market still very short, and therefore that makes the type of movement that we saw this morning, with sterling squeezing higher, more likely. In case there is good news, people want to cover those shorts.feedback

Apr 19 2017

There is a real risk that we get a choice between the far-left and the far-right, neither of which would be market-friendly, and both of which could leave the EU in a very different position than it's in today.feedback

Apr 19 2017 - Brexit

Even though May looks set to secure a strong mandate from U.K. voters, the priority of EU negotiators heading into the Brexit talks remains the protection of the EU. The Brexit talks are still set to be tough and the result could still deal a blow to the U.K. economy.feedback

Mar 15 2017 - Brexit

Perhaps for international investors who don't have a real handle on these issues, you could imagine there was relief that those who want to leave are in the minority still, even if it's close.feedback

Mar 13 2017

The expectations that the Fed will hike three times this year has been rising in recent weeks and the market will be watching the central bank's statement closely for any signs that another move could follow in June.feedback

Mar 13 2017 - Article 50

I think (with markets) having built up some concern that it (the Scottish vote) could be as close as next autumn, sterling just bounced back on relief that no date was mentioned. I definitely see sterling as vulnerable after Article 50 is triggered because there is a significant risk that when the negotiations start with the EU, the EU could certainly play quite a difficult hand for the UK to respond to.feedback

Feb 27 2017

The changes in the polls perhaps won't be listened to, because people just don't trust them.feedback

Feb 08 2017

What is China trying to do about (large outflows)? Yes, they put up interest rates, they're draining liquidity, but still they don't seem to be really trying to stem the loan growth.feedback

Feb 08 2017

We know that they've got several issues, we know that they are trying to perhaps drain the liquidity, but they don't want to take action. They don't want to put up interest rates too much because I think they appear to be fearful that that could slow growth. With respect to Donald Trump, I think part of the reason they are still trying to have this two-way trade in the exchange rate is to give this impression that they are not a currency manipulator, they are of course trying to stop the rate of movement.feedback

Feb 08 2017 - Greece

It's been a while, certainly not since he has been the president, certainly not since the election has (Trump) called China a currency manipulator and I think Donald Trump is perhaps aware of the fact that they are taking action to keep the exchange rate higher not lower. We've known Greece is at risk, coming back to the headlines right now, but China is so much of a larger economy. That is the one that can certainly do a lot more damage to global confidence.feedback

Feb 08 2017 - South China Sea

Safe-haven, tensions between Japan and China regarding the South China Sea, those sorts of issues will keep the yen pretty well-bid but going into this meeting it's going to be very difficult.feedback

Feb 08 2017 - Japan

Trump is going to be fairly aggressive. The Japanese affected exchange rate measured on the Bank of Japan's measure was at its lowest level two years ago, since 1973. It's come back a little bit but you're looking at many measures, a dollar which is overvalued against currencies such as the yen and the euro and Japan which is working with the yen which is at a very nice value thank you very much.feedback

Feb 06 2017 - French election 2017

I think there was just a load of position adjustment this morning. There has been a lot of talk about the strong data in Europe but the other backdrop is the politics. A few weeks ago, the market was convinced (conservative presidential candidate Francois) Fillon would win and that certainty has evaporated.feedback

Feb 03 2017

The market was priced for a more hawkish Bank of England. So that was a catalyst but I do think sterling's gains had just gone too far. (When) we move into March and that's when the Brexit negotiations start, that's when the Europeans get the chance to push back, and that's when how complicated an issue it (Brexit) is becomes far more apparent.feedback

Jan 26 2017 - Protectionism

We have seen the market coming back on the yen a bit which is of course a safe haven play and if Trump's protectionism goes forth, there will be more concern about China, and that is supportive for the yen on the safe haven flow.feedback

Jan 25 2017 - Unilateralism

What we?ve seen this year is more of a focus on the isolationist, protectionist policies of Trump. The market had chosen to ignore those last year, but now focus has swung back ... Protectionism is usually detrimental to growth.feedback

Jan 25 2017

They're certainly could be room for relief rallies on those election results and not only that but since the start of the year we've had some better-than-expected German and other European economic data, which of course has started this debate about whether or not it's appropriate for the ECB to be doing so much easing.feedback

Jan 25 2017

The market needs some more meat on the bones of reflationary policies if the dollar bulls are going to get another go.feedback

Jan 25 2017 - Conservative and Unionist Party

I think the dollar is already coming off its post-Trump honeymoon period. What could potentially give the dollar bulls a little bit more of headway is if he were to bring out some more detail about his policies, what is he going to do about fiscal stimulus, how is he going to lower corporate tax. (U.K. Prime Minister) Theresa May, I think, has been advertising what a busy schedule she's got. But of course, the negotiations for Brexit are yet to commence with European partners. So, I think once Brexit is triggered … we've got a volatile year ahead really.feedback

Jan 25 2017

Whilst the far right is likely to get more support in the three countries that have general elections this year, they're not likely to form a government, so actually I think there's been a bit of relief coming back in the euro.feedback

Jan 16 2017 - Conservative and Unionist Party

It's clear that sterling is still very vulnerable to 'hard' Brexit fears. The uncertainty is itself also a negative factor, and I think perhaps that's one of the reasons for Theresa May's speech on Tuesday, to provide a little bit of clarification.feedback

Nov 22 2016 - Front National

There had been some concern that if Sarkozy was up against Le Pen, that would not be a particularly good circumstance.feedback

Nov 14 2016

I think people were just pausing for breath. The rise higher in yields, coupled with the fact that people have been reducing dollar longs for most of this year, has really played into this. It is really setting the tone for all other markets.feedback

Nov 09 2016

If Trump is able to follow through with these suggestions, Mexican activity will suffer greatly.feedback

Nov 07 2016

There has been evidence that the drop in sterling has helped exporters and manufacturing industries but the uncertainties created by the volatility can negate some of the good effects.feedback

Nov 07 2016

Sterling will be volatile and buffeted around by political moves related to whether we're going to get a hard or a soft Brexit.feedback

Nov 05 2016 - Federal Reserve

What we do know about Trump is that he favours protectionist policies. And what we know about protectionist policies is that they're likely to be inflationary. That brings on a layer of uncertainty to the Federal Reserve.feedback

Nov 01 2016

Carney didn't need to give a decision until the end of the year but he came through early to get rid of some of the political uncertainty clouding the UK markets at the moment.feedback

Nov 01 2016

The data is expected to show another decent pace of expansion that should bring some comfort on the economic front, although we saw last month with this data that the pound is dominated by politics instead of economics now.feedback

Oct 28 2016

It is possible that banks' profits will continue to be supported by fixed income. The increase in volatility may support the number of transactions and could lead to higher profitability for banks.feedback

Oct 28 2016

Politics this month has really taken precedence over the economic data ... sterling appears to be looking ahead into what still is a cloud of political uncertainty.feedback

Oct 13 2016 - Unilever

Clearly Unilever won't be the only company wanting to pass on a 10 percent or similar price increase due to the fall in the pound.feedback

Oct 13 2016 - RMB

We have got a stronger dollar and that is the market now pricing in the likelihood of a December U.S Fed rate hike. The other theme is the weakness of Chinese exports. That does help turn the spotlight on the recent weakness of the yuan. Then of course there is sterling.feedback

Oct 07 2016

Since the U.K. runs a significant current account deficit – 5.3 percent of GDP in 2015 – the pound is heavily exposed to downside risk on a drop in investment flow.feedback

Oct 07 2016

Fat fingers, algos, low liquidity may all have been factors but it is possible that the move was exaggerated by the current vulnerability of the pound and the forecasts of some investors and economist that GBP still has further to fall as Brexit consequences come home to roost.feedback

Sep 29 2016

Investors are nervous about the fact that we may be about to witness another leg of the financial crisis. The euro has performed poorly on the back of these jitters.feedback

Sep 29 2016

The SNB has made it clear that it considers intervention as one of its policy tools and this is likely to limit upside potential for the Swiss franc.feedback

Sep 26 2016

I think the yen will perform well if Trump looks more likely to win in November.feedback

Aug 18 2016

The condition of the (UK) economy in the weeks since the referendum has not been as bad as feared.feedback

Jun 08 2016

The dollar continues to remain soggy with June priced out and chances that the Fed will move in July waning. Investors will need some good payrolls data and signs of inflation picking up, before they are convinced that a rate hike in September is on the cards.feedback

Apr 22 2016

That puts a different light on the BOJ meeting and suggests they might be more creative than the markets had given them credit for. Clearly we have seen the yen suffer on the back of that.feedback

Jan 27 2016

The market isn't expecting anything particularly hawkish today so obviously anything that did appear hawkish would certainly be a bit of a surprise and would give the dollar a bit of additional support.feedback

Jan 11 2016 - RMB

The Chinese authorities clearly want to signal that it will not be a one-way trade in the renminbi.feedback

Jan 06 2015

Bond yields across the board are now extremely low, and growth is also extremely low. So you've got to argue that a marginal decrease in interest rates from their already low levels is unlikely to bring a boom to either growth or inflation.feedback

Jul 09 2013 - Greece

I think this is a compromise deal. They are going to be given the money but it is clearly going to be drip fed to them and clearly this will prevent, hopefully, any escalation of any crisis, but it does mean that they are still being pressured really quite hard to keep on going through with these reforms.feedback

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