Jane Foley - Rabobank International


Last quote by Jane Foley

The market is fearful now that the cuts in regulation, the tax incentives, etc., just won't be forthcoming because the administration will be so busy fire-fighting scandals, it won't be able to push through any of its promises.feedback
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May 19 2017 Trump Presidency
This page is completely dedicated to what Jane Foley has to say. All of Jane Foley’s quotes are organized here by date and topic. The most recent quote attributed to Jane Foley came from an article called Euro jumps to six-month high but analysts warn on hopes for prolonged rally: “(President) Macron's choice of a Republican prime minister will have boosted his chances of a parliamentary majority next month. The common ground between him and (Chancellor Angela) Merkel as noted in Monday's meeting and the chancellor's election success in regional elections at the weekend are all EUR positive factors. Indeed, the better political backdrop in Europe is in contrast to the latest scandal involving (President Donald) Trump and Russia.”.
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Jane Foley quotes

The expectations that the Fed will hike three times this year has been rising in recent weeks and the market will be watching the central bank's statement closely for any signs that another move could follow in June.feedback

I think (with markets) having built up some concern that it (the Scottish vote) could be as close as next autumn, sterling just bounced back on relief that no date was mentioned. I definitely see sterling as vulnerable after Article 50 is triggered because there is a significant risk that when the negotiations start with the EU, the EU could certainly play quite a difficult hand for the UK to respond to.feedback

The changes in the polls perhaps won't be listened to, because people just don't trust them.feedback

What is China trying to do about (large outflows)? Yes, they put up interest rates, they're draining liquidity, but still they don't seem to be really trying to stem the loan growth.feedback

We know that they've got several issues, we know that they are trying to perhaps drain the liquidity, but they don't want to take action. They don't want to put up interest rates too much because I think they appear to be fearful that that could slow growth. With respect to Donald Trump, I think part of the reason they are still trying to have this two-way trade in the exchange rate is to give this impression that they are not a currency manipulator, they are of course trying to stop the rate of movement.feedback

It's been a while, certainly not since he has been the president, certainly not since the election has (Trump) called China a currency manipulator and I think Donald Trump is perhaps aware of the fact that they are taking action to keep the exchange rate higher not lower. We've known Greece is at risk, coming back to the headlines right now, but China is so much of a larger economy. That is the one that can certainly do a lot more damage to global confidence.feedback

Safe-haven, tensions between Japan and China regarding the South China Sea, those sorts of issues will keep the yen pretty well-bid but going into this meeting it's going to be very difficult.feedback

Trump is going to be fairly aggressive. The Japanese affected exchange rate measured on the Bank of Japan's measure was at its lowest level two years ago, since 1973. It's come back a little bit but you're looking at many measures, a dollar which is overvalued against currencies such as the yen and the euro and Japan which is working with the yen which is at a very nice value thank you very much.feedback

I think there was just a load of position adjustment this morning. There has been a lot of talk about the strong data in Europe but the other backdrop is the politics. A few weeks ago, the market was convinced (conservative presidential candidate Francois) Fillon would win and that certainty has evaporated.feedback

The market was priced for a more hawkish Bank of England. So that was a catalyst but I do think sterling's gains had just gone too far. (When) we move into March and that's when the Brexit negotiations start, that's when the Europeans get the chance to push back, and that's when how complicated an issue it (Brexit) is becomes far more apparent.feedback

We have seen the market coming back on the yen a bit which is of course a safe haven play and if Trump's protectionism goes forth, there will be more concern about China, and that is supportive for the yen on the safe haven flow.feedback

What we?ve seen this year is more of a focus on the isolationist, protectionist policies of Trump. The market had chosen to ignore those last year, but now focus has swung back ... Protectionism is usually detrimental to growth.feedback

They're certainly could be room for relief rallies on those election results and not only that but since the start of the year we've had some better-than-expected German and other European economic data, which of course has started this debate about whether or not it's appropriate for the ECB to be doing so much easing.feedback

The market needs some more meat on the bones of reflationary policies if the dollar bulls are going to get another go.feedback

I think the dollar is already coming off its post-Trump honeymoon period. What could potentially give the dollar bulls a little bit more of headway is if he were to bring out some more detail about his policies, what is he going to do about fiscal stimulus, how is he going to lower corporate tax. (U.K. Prime Minister) Theresa May, I think, has been advertising what a busy schedule she's got. But of course, the negotiations for Brexit are yet to commence with European partners. So, I think once Brexit is triggered … we've got a volatile year ahead really.feedback

Whilst the far right is likely to get more support in the three countries that have general elections this year, they're not likely to form a government, so actually I think there's been a bit of relief coming back in the euro.feedback

It's clear that sterling is still very vulnerable to 'hard' Brexit fears. The uncertainty is itself also a negative factor, and I think perhaps that's one of the reasons for Theresa May's speech on Tuesday, to provide a little bit of clarification.feedback

There had been some concern that if Sarkozy was up against Le Pen, that would not be a particularly good circumstance.feedback

I think people were just pausing for breath. The rise higher in yields, coupled with the fact that people have been reducing dollar longs for most of this year, has really played into this. It is really setting the tone for all other markets.feedback

If Trump is able to follow through with these suggestions, Mexican activity will suffer greatly.feedback

There has been evidence that the drop in sterling has helped exporters and manufacturing industries but the uncertainties created by the volatility can negate some of the good effects.feedback

Sterling will be volatile and buffeted around by political moves related to whether we're going to get a hard or a soft Brexit.feedback

What we do know about Trump is that he favours protectionist policies. And what we know about protectionist policies is that they're likely to be inflationary. That brings on a layer of uncertainty to the Federal Reserve.feedback

Carney didn't need to give a decision until the end of the year but he came through early to get rid of some of the political uncertainty clouding the UK markets at the moment.feedback

The data is expected to show another decent pace of expansion that should bring some comfort on the economic front, although we saw last month with this data that the pound is dominated by politics instead of economics now.feedback

It is possible that banks' profits will continue to be supported by fixed income. The increase in volatility may support the number of transactions and could lead to higher profitability for banks.feedback

Politics this month has really taken precedence over the economic data ... sterling appears to be looking ahead into what still is a cloud of political uncertainty.feedback

Clearly Unilever won't be the only company wanting to pass on a 10 percent or similar price increase due to the fall in the pound.feedback

We have got a stronger dollar and that is the market now pricing in the likelihood of a December U.S Fed rate hike. The other theme is the weakness of Chinese exports. That does help turn the spotlight on the recent weakness of the yuan. Then of course there is sterling.feedback

Since the U.K. runs a significant current account deficit – 5.3 percent of GDP in 2015 – the pound is heavily exposed to downside risk on a drop in investment flow.feedback

Fat fingers, algos, low liquidity may all have been factors but it is possible that the move was exaggerated by the current vulnerability of the pound and the forecasts of some investors and economist that GBP still has further to fall as Brexit consequences come home to roost.feedback

Investors are nervous about the fact that we may be about to witness another leg of the financial crisis. The euro has performed poorly on the back of these jitters.feedback

The SNB has made it clear that it considers intervention as one of its policy tools and this is likely to limit upside potential for the Swiss franc.feedback

I think the yen will perform well if Trump looks more likely to win in November.feedback

The condition of the (UK) economy in the weeks since the referendum has not been as bad as feared.feedback

The dollar continues to remain soggy with June priced out and chances that the Fed will move in July waning. Investors will need some good payrolls data and signs of inflation picking up, before they are convinced that a rate hike in September is on the cards.feedback

That puts a different light on the BOJ meeting and suggests they might be more creative than the markets had given them credit for. Clearly we have seen the yen suffer on the back of that.feedback

The market isn't expecting anything particularly hawkish today so obviously anything that did appear hawkish would certainly be a bit of a surprise and would give the dollar a bit of additional support.feedback

The Chinese authorities clearly want to signal that it will not be a one-way trade in the renminbi.feedback

Bond yields across the board are now extremely low, and growth is also extremely low. So you've got to argue that a marginal decrease in interest rates from their already low levels is unlikely to bring a boom to either growth or inflation.feedback

I think this is a compromise deal. They are going to be given the money but it is clearly going to be drip fed to them and clearly this will prevent, hopefully, any escalation of any crisis, but it does mean that they are still being pressured really quite hard to keep on going through with these reforms.feedback

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