Last quote by Jane Foley
Jane Foley quotes
What we?ve seen this year is more of a focus on the isolationist, protectionist policies of Trump. The market had chosen to ignore those last year, but now focus has swung back ... Protectionism is usually detrimental to growth.
They're certainly could be room for relief rallies on those election results and not only that but since the start of the year we've had some better-than-expected German and other European economic data, which of course has started this debate about whether or not it's appropriate for the ECB to be doing so much easing.
The market needs some more meat on the bones of reflationary policies if the dollar bulls are going to get another go.
I think the dollar is already coming off its post-Trump honeymoon period. What could potentially give the dollar bulls a little bit more of headway is if he were to bring out some more detail about his policies, what is he going to do about fiscal stimulus, how is he going to lower corporate tax. (U.K. Prime Minister) Theresa May, I think, has been advertising what a busy schedule she's got. But of course, the negotiations for Brexit are yet to commence with European partners. So, I think once Brexit is triggered … we've got a volatile year ahead really.
Whilst the far right is likely to get more support in the three countries that have general elections this year, they're not likely to form a government, so actually I think there's been a bit of relief coming back in the euro.
It's clear that sterling is still very vulnerable to 'hard' Brexit fears. The uncertainty is itself also a negative factor, and I think perhaps that's one of the reasons for Theresa May's speech on Tuesday, to provide a little bit of clarification.
There had been some concern that if Sarkozy was up against Le Pen, that would not be a particularly good circumstance.
I think people were just pausing for breath. The rise higher in yields, coupled with the fact that people have been reducing dollar longs for most of this year, has really played into this. It is really setting the tone for all other markets.
If Trump is able to follow through with these suggestions, Mexican activity will suffer greatly.
There has been evidence that the drop in sterling has helped exporters and manufacturing industries but the uncertainties created by the volatility can negate some of the good effects.
Sterling will be volatile and buffeted around by political moves related to whether we're going to get a hard or a soft Brexit.
What we do know about Trump is that he favours protectionist policies. And what we know about protectionist policies is that they're likely to be inflationary. That brings on a layer of uncertainty to the Federal Reserve.
Carney didn't need to give a decision until the end of the year but he came through early to get rid of some of the political uncertainty clouding the UK markets at the moment.
The data is expected to show another decent pace of expansion that should bring some comfort on the economic front, although we saw last month with this data that the pound is dominated by politics instead of economics now.
It is possible that banks' profits will continue to be supported by fixed income. The increase in volatility may support the number of transactions and could lead to higher profitability for banks.
Politics this month has really taken precedence over the economic data ... sterling appears to be looking ahead into what still is a cloud of political uncertainty.
Clearly Unilever won't be the only company wanting to pass on a 10 percent or similar price increase due to the fall in the pound.
We have got a stronger dollar and that is the market now pricing in the likelihood of a December U.S Fed rate hike. The other theme is the weakness of Chinese exports. That does help turn the spotlight on the recent weakness of the yuan. Then of course there is sterling.
Since the U.K. runs a significant current account deficit – 5.3 percent of GDP in 2015 – the pound is heavily exposed to downside risk on a drop in investment flow.
Fat fingers, algos, low liquidity may all have been factors but it is possible that the move was exaggerated by the current vulnerability of the pound and the forecasts of some investors and economist that GBP still has further to fall as Brexit consequences come home to roost.
Investors are nervous about the fact that we may be about to witness another leg of the financial crisis. The euro has performed poorly on the back of these jitters.
The SNB has made it clear that it considers intervention as one of its policy tools and this is likely to limit upside potential for the Swiss franc.
I think the yen will perform well if Trump looks more likely to win in November.
The condition of the (UK) economy in the weeks since the referendum has not been as bad as feared.
The dollar continues to remain soggy with June priced out and chances that the Fed will move in July waning. Investors will need some good payrolls data and signs of inflation picking up, before they are convinced that a rate hike in September is on the cards.
That puts a different light on the BOJ meeting and suggests they might be more creative than the markets had given them credit for. Clearly we have seen the yen suffer on the back of that.
The market isn't expecting anything particularly hawkish today so obviously anything that did appear hawkish would certainly be a bit of a surprise and would give the dollar a bit of additional support.
The Chinese authorities clearly want to signal that it will not be a one-way trade in the renminbi.
Bond yields across the board are now extremely low, and growth is also extremely low. So you've got to argue that a marginal decrease in interest rates from their already low levels is unlikely to bring a boom to either growth or inflation.
I think this is a compromise deal. They are going to be given the money but it is clearly going to be drip fed to them and clearly this will prevent, hopefully, any escalation of any crisis, but it does mean that they are still being pressured really quite hard to keep on going through with these reforms.