Jasper Lawler - CMC Markets


Last quote by Jasper Lawler

The (French) polls are neck-and-neck at the moment, so it seems a good chance that a political outsider is going to win.feedback
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Apr 18 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Jasper Lawler is associated, including December, UK, and market. Most recently, Jasper Lawler has been quoted saying: “It's not a coincidence that the French CAC index was one of the biggest fallers today, because ... French election risk is coming to the fore. The polls are neck-and-neck at the moment, so it seems a good chance that a political outsider is going to win.” in the article Miners, oil drag European shares to 2-week low; volatility jumps.
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Jasper Lawler quotes

European stocks started the day in positive spirits. As the day pushed on, the bullish spirit waned.feedback

EU bureaucrats will also want to try and discourage the kind of populism that created Brexit and Trump within its own states with an unbeneficial deal for the UK. A bad deal for the UK is self-defeating for the EU economically, but serves a political purpose of trying to stop its own eventual break-up.feedback

The outlook for interest rates has been muddied by the Donald Trump victory, but markets continue to price in a December rate hike from the Federal Reserve.feedback

(The FTSE) is still continuing the positive run of gains since Brexit, so it's a Brexit bounce. But it's run into that previous record high ... and pulled back quite significantly from there.feedback

I think no one's really got the confidence to buy the market up through into new record highs.feedback

Barclays earnings in the third quarter were boosted by its investment banking business, mirroring a trend seen amongst the big American banks.feedback

It's becoming increasingly clear that Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE and Kuwait will have to shoulder most of the output cut for it to have any chance of happening.feedback

It seems that in the war that has erupted between supermarkets and their suppliers because of the weaker pound, Tesco has won its first battle.feedback

But the size of the drop in currency markets was not mirrored in the rise in the FTSE 100. The benefits of a weaker pound for exports and higher inflation are being offset by a concern the exchange rate's decline has become destabilising.feedback

A weaker pound continues to be a positive for UK equities, which were flirting with record highs.feedback

Given the collapse in the gold price, the shares of gold miners are understandably under pressure.feedback

The TUI results are quite surprising in a way because we had the opposite story yesterday from Thomas Cook. TUI, fundamentally, are a German company, so they just don't have the pound effect weighing on them in quite the same way that maybe the UK travel firms do.feedback

The Fed-fuelled rally that catapulted shares out of the summer doldrums this week is showing some signs of fatigue. The focus would now begin to switch to upcoming economic data and whether that makes a rate hike in December more or less likely.feedback

I don't expect the Fed to do anything and I don't expect a 'hawkish hold' either. But a bit of dollar weakness should support the backdrop for oil.feedback

Oil's got its own pretty positive drivers at the moment. The API surprise draw overnight is obviously leading to the question of whether we are going to see the same in the official inventory today.feedback

I don't necessarily think (the rise) is an indication of really strong sentiment - I think markets are more likely to be a bit up and down before the (central bank) meetings.feedback

The current backdrop is bad for bank profitability ... We need to see Germany as the growth powerhouse, because it's not happening in other parts of the euro zone.feedback

The unemployment report was not weak enough to completely undermine the Fed's hawkish bias since Jackson Hole. It was probably enough to see fence-sitters on the Federal Open Market Committee wait until December before voting to hike interest rates.feedback

There's maybe a general sense that, at least in the short-term, the referendum vote's note having any catastrophic effect on the UK economy.feedback

Hotels and restaurants have barely recovered from a difficult period. This is a new blow, especially in summer.feedback

Recent experience suggests the initial sell-off will be short-lived but the potential damage to traveler confidence is a clear negative for affected firms.feedback

If US politicians have been listening to Theresa May's speeches, particularly at the latest Conservative Party conference, there was also a bit of talk of business bashing almost. A bit of kind of talk to really appeal to the masses that are maybe feeling a little bit disfranchised and so probably Philip Hammond is going over there to say: 'Well this is the talk that has been given to appease the public and the core conservative voters but actually don't worry guys, we're still wanting to do business with you.feedback

A big part of getting agreement from regulators was guaranteeing employment after the deal. Keeping staff in South Africa shouldn't be too damaging given the region represents one of the biggest growth opportunities in the global beer market.feedback

The more assets Glencore disposes of, the more shareholders will begin to weigh up the benefits to the balance sheet versus the negatives of lost future revenue.feedback

A three-week low in the price of oil goes some way to explaining deteriorating market sentiment. Some heavy declines in industrial metal prices over the past three days are taking a toll on the UK-listed mining companies.feedback

I think (the payrolls report) is probably what's sent us over the edge in oil.feedback

Cutting jobs in the West, and to some extent shifting jobs to lower cost areas, is all just part of a cost saving exercise in this era of low interest rates which compresses the ability of financial firms to make returns on investments and for banks to get any return on lending.feedback

The output freeze is disappointing because it's not an outright cut and with Iran not a part of the meeting it's still a bit far-fetched to think this is a precursor to a future cut. Iran's absence from the meeting means overall OPEC output should still rise.feedback

Markets have seen a dramatic shift in sentiment in the space of a few days.feedback

Given the volatility we've seen in the oil price, even intraday, swings of 3 to 4 percent, if you are going to see a rebound, this is the kind of rebound you'd expect.feedback

The positive initial reaction in developed markets would suggest the circuit breaker suspension in China could act to calm Chinese markets rather than just spur even bigger daily price declines.feedback

The disposal of Giraffe was thought to be off the table, so the apparent change of heart suggests a level of desperation.feedback

They are not going to make today's payment. So that does officially put them in arrears with the IMF, not necessarily a default, but arrears puts them inside the company of the likes of Zimbabwe, and so the next important date really is going to be the referendum on July 5th.feedback

I t was expected to show a modest increase in December, actually we saw quite a large decline. It's just renewed the same fears that dogged a lot of last year's trading, namely that the slow down in China's economy could be set to speed up that obviously weighs on any industry which relies on China.feedback

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