Jeffrey Halley

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Last quote by Jeffrey Halley

The Trump administration's 100 days of action appear to be becoming 100 days of inaction as investors start running out of patience.
Mar 21 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Jeffrey Halley is associated, including Asia and OPEC. Most recently, Jeffrey Halley has been quoted saying: “Sustained gains above $55 a barrel, and a hoped for rally to $60 a barrel, (are) both proving incredibly tough nuts to crack. At the crux of the matter is that 90 percent OPEC compliance is being balanced by ever increasing U.S. shale production.” in the article Oil rises, but U.S. drilling drags on prices.
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Jeffrey Halley quotes

With both Russia and OPEC producing at record amounts, the market is scratching its head about how both blocs will manage to comply with the Vienna production cut targets. The point is valid, as the more OPEC and Russia produce, the higher the starting point will be to have to cut from.

Crude seems to be trying to move to a new trading range each side of $55 a barrel.

With the financing changes that (U.S. shale producers) have to undergo now, they have to hedge quite a proportion of their future production in order to get the financing they need.

I don't think (the market) had priced in how committed OPEC turned out to be at the very last minute to getting something over the line which I think caused a surge in trading volumes.

We expect intra-day volatility to ratchet higher again into tomorrow, with price action being entirely headline driven.

The Thanksgiving Holiday today has thinned traders interest ... but the OPEC result next Wednesday is the only game in town for energy traders.

The market seems unwilling to push oil towards $50 a barrel ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow. Their reticence is understandable given that longs (long positions) put on above that level have not ended well in recent times.

Tonight's (U.S.) EIA Crude Inventory numbers should provide a welcome, albeit temporary sideshow to the OPEC main event. Otherwise, we expect Asia to continue the sideways trading ranges.

Oil traded in a sideways range overnight, as stronger U.S. dollar (overhadowed) optimism from Saudi's Energy Minister over a production cut agreement. With the dollar reigning supreme, Asia trading of crude should have a slightly heavy tone today as traders lighten up positioning into the weekend.

The main show today will be the U.S. presidential election results coming in over the Asia morning. We expect oil to vacillate up and down according to the whims of the incoming results.

Crude sold off slightly late in the New York (early Asia) session, as the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude inventory figures showed a 4.4 million barrel increase against an expected 2.2 million increase. The effect has been short lived as the street continues to buy commodities anticipating a Clinton victory.

Oil appears to have coat-tailed most other commodities higher, as part of a Clinton-led, broad based, risk asset rally.

I suspect the main drivers are that risk is being taken off the table ahead of next week's election and the continuance of long liquidation.

There was a lot of talk and nobody managed to agree on anything. That has been pushing the market down.

OPEC's Nov. 30 meeting suddenly seems like a long way away with seemingly half of the group wanting exemptions now.

With both Iraq and Iran saying they won't be part of the cuts for various reasons, and Russia talking freezes not production cuts, the onus will fall on Saudi Arabia to pull any deal together.

OPEC appears to be approaching the limits of its ability to jawbone oil higher without something concrete to put on the table.

Crude is on the defensive this morning following American Petroleum Institute (API) inventory numbers showing a rise of 4.8 million barrels against an expected rise of 1.7 million.

EIA crude inventory figures will be closely watched tonight. A large jump in inventories will no doubt see crude pushed lower again.

Expect more of this choppy interplay until more concrete news emerges, as speculative buying runs into record producer selling of the futures contracts for hedging.

The American Petroleum Institute crude inventory numbers were released ... this has given early Asian trading a bullish start.

We expect the SET (Stock Exchange of Thailand) Index to underperform its regional peers until a clearer picture of the King's health appears…the Thai baht will also continue to be under pressure.

In the absence of any OPEC-Russia headlines to give crude its daily adrenaline shot, the market looks nervously to the EIA Crude Inventory figures due in the US this evening.

OPEC kept the heat on oil prices overnight. The Algerian Energy Minister saying that OPEC could cut by more than the 0.5 million barrels per day initial agreement.

Another week another surprise drawdown in crude inventories by the EIA ... Although crude in storage remains at record highs, this is the third week of unexpected drawdowns in a row.

I shall not speculate on whether Clinton won or was Trumped, but clearly, the highest beta currency to a Trump victory thinks she did. Maybe the Mexicans know something we don't?

It was an unexpected undershoot in these numbers last week that set off the rally in crude last week. A rebound in this data will no doubt create an emotional day for oil longs in the New York session.

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