Jeffrey Lewis

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Last quote by Jeffrey Lewis

The natural reaction is: What the hell is that. Maybe there is a KN-08 inside it, maybe there's some new missile inside it, or maybe it's nothing. It's a mystery.feedback
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Apr 15 2017
The latest quote from Jeffrey Lewis is: “My guess is that what it's intended to convey is that there are more ICBMs coming, more solid fuel missiles.”. It comes from the Here are the missiles North Korea just showed off, one by one article. You’ll find on this page 17 articles with Jeffrey Lewis quoted on topics such as Iran, North Korea and testing. Jeffrey Lewis has been quoted 31 times in 17 articles.
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Jeffrey Lewis quotes

In a war they plan to use their weapons early. We plan to hit them before they do that, and the South Koreans plan to hit them before we have a chance to take too long to do that.feedback

This idea that these things were just bargaining chips – something that was true years ago – is superseded by the fact that there is now a rocket force . . . with a commander and a headquarters and subordinate bases, all with missiles. This is now a living, breathing thing.feedback

The ICBM program is real. They've showed us their static engine test. They showed us the mock-up of the nuclear warhead. They have done everything short of actually testing the ICBM. When they do test it, the first time it will probably fail. But eventually it will work. And when it works, people are going to freak out.feedback

China's leaders thought that the important thing was to master the technology. While the United States did fine calculations of the deterrence balance, Chinese leaders tended to think of deterrence like a checklist of achievements.feedback

I don't think that the Chinese and U.S. have, historically, experienced the kind of tit-for-tat modernization that we saw during the U.S.-Soviet arms race. The Chinese more or less modernized for their own reasons and according to their own ideas. I don't see the deployment of Thaad in South Korea as a significant improvement in the ability of the U.S. to monitor Chinese missile tests.feedback

They're missiles, and this is missile defense, and for a lot of people that checks all the boxes. The unintended consequence I can see is that you don't want the South Korean people to think this solves the North Korean missile problem, because it doesn't.feedback

It's not that [China's objections] are irrational, but it's more about what the deployment symbolizes than the radar's actual capability. It's very controversial, the THAAD system. And whoever comes after Park will have the system in place without the responsibility of having agreed to it.feedback

The hardest thing to get the North Koreans to trade away were always the capabilities they already had. They were often willing to not do things. But getting them to give something up that they've already done tends to be much harder. These things went from potential bargaining chips to real capabilities that they don't want to give up.feedback

It's not a guarantee, but it's a really important step. It's the straw that stirs the drink. If we get any bright ideas about rolling into Pyongyang, they have this retaliatory capability. And that really enables them to use their theater capabilities much more aggressively because we're not going to want to escalate. So if they have an ICBM capability that they can rely upon, it could be very destabilizing.feedback

There's a warren of tunnels under the nuclear site. And an ICBM can be launched from anywhere in the country because it's mobile. You might as well invade the country.feedback

But given the scale of the cooperation we've seen on the missile side, would it shock me? No, it would not shock me.feedback

We know that there's a pretty robust collaboration. We see the cooperation right up until this day.feedback

While we saw this work in Iran, over time countries can adjust to sanctions.feedback

The important thing is that five tests in, they now have a lot of nuclear test experience. They aren't a backwards state any more.feedback

Yield estimates are always kind of approximate. The point is that it is the biggest one to date unless they revise the yield downward.feedback

This represents an enormous investment in North Korea's missile production infrastructure, something that is consistent with the propaganda offensive we have seen and the spike in missile testing.feedback

That suggests the missile worked perfectly. Had it been fired at its normal angle, it would have flown to its full range.feedback

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