Jeremy Klein - FBN Securities

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Last quote by Jeremy Klein

President Trump's first trip overseas has put some of his domestic troubles on the back burner which should temporarily eliminate some of the headline risk that has frustrated the bulls.feedback
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May 22 2017 Trump Presidency
Jeremy Klein has most recently been quoted in an article called Nasdaq and S&P hit new record highs; market volatility hits lowest since December 2006. Jeremy Klein said, “The forward multiple for the S&P 500 currently computes to 17.65x. Extrapolating this metric to its cyclical peak of 18.06x yields an intermediate term target of 2455. Nothing on the macro calendar has the ability to threaten the rally while a successful Q1 reporting season has reached its tag ends.”. Jeremy Klein has been quoted a grand total of 62 times in 55 articles.
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Jeremy Klein quotes

I applaud the optimism but question the feasibility of his timeline. As I have written on numerous occasions, nothing has unified the GOP more in the past several years than a disdain for the Affordable Care Act, yet the Republicans are struggling to cobble together a system that can replace Obamacare.feedback

Analysts have started to recognize that Donald Trump and Congress will likely encounter delays when implementing a highly anticipated fiscal stimulus. With the forward multiple for the S&P 500 hovering at its cyclical peak and my most reliable sentiment statistics soaring to their highest point since March, everything must fall into place for the rally to continue its ascent.feedback

There's literally nothing here, and people were trying to find one little hint or mention that basically says we're really considering March.feedback

No one anticipates that Janet Yellen will add restrictive measure at 2 p.m.. However, analysts will search for clues for whether the Committee has an inclination to do so in six weeks. The limitations of the text give the FOMC little opportunity this afternoon to convey a discernible shift of sentiment within its ivory tower. Using the futures market as a guide, investors currently estimate the probability of adding restrictive measures at the next gathering at 36 percent. As a reminder, the 'dot plots' extrapolate to three separate rounds of tightening for 2017.feedback

We have reached the heart of the Q4 earnings season. The deluge of releases from the next two weeks will confirm whether the final three months of 2016 marked a disappointment for companies on a relative basis. To be sure, the bar for this period was a bit higher than in previous quarters. The hurdle only gets more difficult for corporate executives to clear over the next year as extremely sanguine bottom line forecasts have hardly budged.feedback

People are getting concerned, maybe it's not full steam ahead.feedback

I think financials are way, way ahead of themselves.feedback

I maintain that the most important headline for the market's direction in 2017 pertains to the new corporate tax rate. Forward multiples that reside at their cyclical peak demand a significant cut. Investors would likely frown upon a number that settles in the mid-20's or higher. They will also dump shares if the President succeeds in implementing a border adjustment penalty on imported goods.feedback

There is still a lot of uncertainty. We haven't had the inauguration, let alone details about his policies. Not everyone is sold that this market is a one-way ramp higher.feedback

Traders likely woke up this morning a bit surprised. Most portfolio managers likely surmised that last week's sell-off marked the start of a modest pullback for the broader indices that would dominate the early part of 2017 as institutions normalize their risk and many investors clip profits in an effort to defer capital gains.feedback

Many of those who work at buy side institutions have already left for the tropics or the mountains. Although the extremely thin liquidity ahead of the long weekend make stocks susceptible to a bit of bullying, shares should drift quietly during the next several hours.feedback

The trains to Manhattan have started to thin out as some market participants have already commenced their holiday vacation plans.feedback

Along with [Oracle], which delivered their earnings last week, and [Accenture], which will do the same tomorrow morning, these releases will offer a good preview for the upcoming reporting season.feedback

These events, especially if they're in Europe, they're going to help the dollar versus the euro.feedback

The disappointment by the former report offers a reminder that the current rally for the broader indices is based primarily on improving sentiment thanks to the election of the friendliest federal government to business since the ashes of the financial crisis.feedback

Although the Fed will likely add restrictive measures for only the second time in a decade, the announcement arguably has far less uncertainty surrounding it than usual. Janet Yellen and her colleagues have unambiguously signaled a desire to pull the trigger at its next gathering and will surprise no one by doing so.feedback

With yesterday's ECB decision quickly fading from our rearview mirror, next Wednesday's FOMC meeting survives as the lone potential landmine that could give investors pause before boosting their risk.feedback

If the Governing Council uses the FOMC's playbook by tapering its activity in consistent increments in the future, then its balance sheet should continue to expand well beyond the end of 2017. The central bank also left the door open to return to an 80B euro target at any time and will buy securities yielding below its current deposit rate of -.40% as needed.feedback

Yesterday's 'checkmark' pattern traced by the S&P 500 offered another reminder of large institutions plowing cash into shares in a determined effort to boost their positioning. Despite this consistent risk extension since Donald Trump's shocking victory over Hillary Clinton, my most reliable sentiment indicators suggest that many portfolio managers still have the ability to increase their stock holdings substantially.feedback

I reiterate that the fundamental story surrounding the commodity will flip from one fraught with supply concerns to one optimistic about burgeoning global demand.feedback

Janet Yellen will add restrictive measures in December and has an unambiguous intention to do so on two separated occasions in 2017. However, her pace toward normalization still trails that for expectations for inflation which will allow the yield curve to steepen further to encourage financial institutions to lend to both businesses and individuals.feedback

The commuter trains should start thinning out by this afternoon as traders take advantage of the Thanksgiving holiday. The price action for the next several days should therefore put investors to sleep which will preclude the reprise of any deleterious amount of volatility.feedback

Nothing in Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress on Thursday suggests anything different. Hence, monetary policy for the short term remains extremely transparent to source a stiff tailwind at the back of stocks. The looming specter of the central bank tightening next month should not disturb a Santa Claus rally that has already commenced.feedback

She had a pretty big lead. Now this will certainly take a chunk of that, but most investors still think she'll win on November 8.feedback

Whenever you see mergers you're betting whoever the acquirer is is saying … we're bullish on our prospects, they want to be bigger and they're buying something that is cheap. They're the ones that should know our industry the best.feedback

Although I am not one who is prone to hyperbole, the upcoming deluge of earnings announcements has the potential to drive the direction for equities more than any other reporting season in recent memory.feedback

The forward multiple for the S&P 500 continues to flirt with 17.0x and hovers just below its peak since the bursting of the Dot Com Bubble. Moreover, profit projections for 2017 reside in the stratosphere and have refused to decline at a pace commensurate to that from the past three years.feedback

Crude came off; gold came off; Treasurys came off. I think those reversals in the macro markets certainly spooked investors a little bit.feedback

The Presidential Election will now recede into the background until the next debate on October 9. If one candidate definitively pushes his or her nose in front of the other in the polls, then the market may exhibit little reaction to the race for the White House prior to November 8.feedback

Out of deference to wobbly macro data, which include soft headline and Non-manufacturing ISM readings, and one of the wackiest Presidential Elections on record, the FOMC should wait until the last possible moment before acting to lessen the probability of making an error.feedback

I maintain that Janet Yellen will refrain from adding restrictive measures until at least December. Such inaction does not guarantee a resumption of the rally, for the 'dot plots' for the current and future years could perform as an effective proxy to convey a more hawkish tone at the central bank.feedback

An empty economic calendar for the next forty-eight hours should also help alleviate some of the lingering skittishness. Most importantly, the FOMC has entered its quiet period with the final communication from a Committee member unambiguously suggesting that the central bank would be served better by maintaining the status quo when congregating next Wednesday.feedback

Some analysts may cite seasonal and calendar issues surrounding the disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls reading as contributing to the shortfall; however, the recovery has far less momentum than the Chairman and her colleagues think it does.feedback

You're seeing equities around the world a little bit weak and you've got some volatility in rates and the FX market. I think it's enough of an excuse to take some profit.feedback

Markets have a lot of trouble going lower on quiet days.feedback

The reaction was exacerbated, because I think it was done overnight, especially in the FX markets. It's pretty much, people are going to wait a bit, take the weekend and see how the futures open up.feedback

In a vacuum of news where you're just waiting for a poll to come out, really for the results to come out (Thursday), she could fill the void a little bit.feedback

Everyone's waiting for tomorrow and almost more importantly, next Thursday.feedback

A lot of momentum against the U.S. dollar right now. It's a very circuitous trade. You'd (want a weaker dollar) at least with earnings but the reality is the strong euro is hurting European equities.feedback

Today's a quiet before the storm. ... I think guys are clipping profits ahead of it. We made a run at the November highs (in the S&P last week). You weren't going to get through the first time. Earnings have been a little soft.feedback

I think a lot of people were short some energy names going into Doha and they're scrambling to cover.feedback

The reason not to buy is less. There's much more reason to participate now especially as the market grinds higher.feedback

We've had a massive run over the last few weeks. Today I would not be surprised to see some profit-taking ahead of the weekend.feedback

I think it's a good jobs report. Given where expectations are for the second half of the year for earnings, you need economic growth more than you need the Fed to sit on the sidelines.feedback

This big uptick in the PMI – there's relief that we won't be dipping below 4 on the ISM (manufacturing) Monday.feedback

I think the BOJ got it going. it signals they are basically walking their talk.feedback

There's basically no buying, which is part of the problem.feedback

I think China's suspending their circuit breaker rule was a great help ... The thinking is there's not going to be this mad rush to the opening bell.feedback

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