Last quote by Jeremy Stretch
Jeremy Stretch quotes
In the near-term, while we are seeing sterling gaining we would view the correction as likely temporary, not least as the data will embolden those within government looking for a hard Brexit, ignoring the single market.
I have a 1.25 forecast for GBP/USD over the next three months. If the data remains weak, that forecast risks being revised further lower.
As expected the total stimulus, (as flagged by Abe) equates to 28.1 trillion Japanese yen.
In general in the past few weeks, we've seen a positive risk environment, and obviously that took a blow as events developed on Friday.
The scenario looks a bit calmer now ... so we're back to thinking about the sort of policy outlook that had the yen falling against the dollar last week.
We could see sterling trading below $1.19 … that $1.18-$1.19 area, which we haven't seen since between March and May 1985, is very much in view. And it's interesting that we're starting to see investors also starting to lighten government bond holdings i.e. gilts. So it's reflective of a loss of confidence in UK PLC as things stand.
Contagion was the problem that really was large in 2007 and beyond, and I think that will be something of a concern. And if there were to be a systemic failure in Italy on a major scale then there would be that risk of contagion spilling out through the other European banks.
The lower yuan fixing probably signifies greater risks to the Chinese economy than we know of, leading to risk-off trades.
If we are going to see the removal of sanctions not just in the oil market but particularly in the energy sector, we will see a flow of funds coming back into the domestic market. Of course, the removal of sanctions and the embargo potentially opens the way for some degree of inward investment, and I think that is going to be hugely significant.