Jim Caron - Morgan Stanley & Co. International

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Last quote by Jim Caron

If they come out overly concerned about the down tick in core PCE then we're going to scratch our heads pretty hard. That would be a surprise, so I think the thing to look for is if they fixate too much on the inflation number. Everything else says hike. If they fixate too much on the inflation number, it's going to cause a lot of question marks.feedback
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May 02 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Jim Caron is associated, including Angela, February, and market. Most recently, Jim Caron has been quoted saying: “It's hard to predict that number because it's all over the place, but people are going to look at it. It was a little misleading last time. People are going to look at that number because it's an early view of what might come out Friday. It's important.” in the article Next up for markets: The jobs number that blindsided economists last month.
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Jim Caron quotes

Trade, that's the wild card. We may be getting way ahead of ourselves. There is one thing we can't measure, and that is animal spirits. If animal spirits are rising and confidence is moving higher, that could be surprising.feedback

The thing with balancing points is they're inherently unstable. We're not going to stay here for long. We're either going higher in this shared optimistic world, or we're going to flip around say nothing is going to to work – we're back to stagflation.feedback

If you believe there has been a fundamental shift in the markets with a Trump presidency, which means it's going to be more about business investment, capex … then yields should be higher, north of 2.75 percent. If you believe we're still in secular stagnation mode, then yields are going to be lower.feedback

I think there's going to be enough uncertainty in the market, whether it's the election … it can go one way or the other. It just makes people de-risk, raise cash, stay closer to home and invest when there's opportunity. If there's a big move up or down people may react to it.feedback

I think the important thing that's going on right now, and this is all conjecture, nothing's been official. What it seems like to me is the monetary policy experiment of low and negative interest rates is coming to an end. It doesn't mean they're going to hike rates. It's just that they believe that persistently lowering and lowering rates isn't the answer. It's got to be something else. They've got to change tact a little bit.feedback

The markets didn't react to them almost at all. That tells me the Fed has a credibility problem. When you have two strong individuals speaking … and the markets say I don't believe you, that's a big problem. Actions might have to be taken to correct that. If we can't take them at their word, that's a problem.feedback

I think it's going to be with us for a while. The economic data matters, but what matters more is what does [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel say; what does Cameron say and what does Boris Johnson say? Who knows? These are politicians. How do you discount that in the market?…How do you value what they're going to say and how do you judge when they're going to say something?feedback

I think they're going to move slowly because there's not a lot of room for them to do anything. Could they do more asset purchases? I guess. Could they cut rates a little more negative? I guess. They could do some of those things, but there's not a lot they could really do here. Money's cheap enough.feedback

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