Jim Caron - Morgan Stanley & Co. International


Last quote by Jim Caron

I don't think he's going to do much to alter it, at least immediately. Having been on the Fed, people know him. They don't view him as an adversarial outsider coming in with an agenda.feedback
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Nov 01 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Jim Caron is associated, including Angela, February, and market. Most recently, Jim Caron has been quoted saying: “When the Fed goes from modest to solid…it's a pretty significant change, but the markets are shrugging it off.” in the article Market shrugs off Fed's 'bland' comments on economy as it awaits Yellen replacement.
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Jim Caron quotes

Jun 13 2017

They've got to address the issue of why they are hiking rates when they're so far below your inflation target.feedback

Jun 12 2017

That's what everyone is going to be looking for. I don't think it's any surprise that they're going to be moving by 25 basis points. It's going to be a question of how they incorporate that with the balance sheet. If they don't say much about it, that's going to be viewed as very dovish by the market.feedback

Jun 12 2017

The key question is whether the market is even responding to this balance sheet roll off? The answer is no.feedback

Jun 02 2017

I personally don't think anything comes out of it. I think it becomes a partisan debate, but the market needs to see a resolution of that. This is an event we're all going to be watching. It's certainly going to take a lot of attention. The good news is once it's over, it's over.feedback

May 02 2017

If they come out overly concerned about the down tick in core PCE then we're going to scratch our heads pretty hard. That would be a surprise, so I think the thing to look for is if they fixate too much on the inflation number. Everything else says hike. If they fixate too much on the inflation number, it's going to cause a lot of question marks.feedback

May 02 2017

It's hard to predict that number because it's all over the place, but people are going to look at it. It was a little misleading last time. People are going to look at that number because it's an early view of what might come out Friday. It's important.feedback

Apr 11 2017

I question if the Fed will want to hike rates in June amid this uncertainty, downturn in inflation and sagging confidence.feedback

Apr 11 2017 - Oil

Inflation data should be weaker as year-over-year oil price comparisons decline and thus do not contribute to a rise in headline inflation. True for U.S. and Europe.feedback

Apr 05 2017

If you get good data, and things are going well, and we get some tax plan, then rates will go up faster than they otherwise ordinarily would have, with the reduction in the balance sheet. That should make rates go up. That's putting supply back into the market, effectively reducing the stock of securities. There were always two ways to think about the Fed's quantitative easing: One was the flow affect, the action of buying the securities, and the other was the securities the Fed held onto and took out of the market – the stock of securities they held.feedback

Apr 05 2017 - Federal Reserve

If they're talking about doing it this year, then Janet Yellen is saying under the Janet Yellen Fed, they are starting the balance sheet winddown. They are not kicking the can to the next person. That's kind of setting the course for the next Fed chairperson to handle it.feedback

Mar 14 2017

The whole view for four rate hikes this year rests on how well this health care and tax bill come through into the market. I can only believe from what I see, read and watch that it's going to be messy. I don't think this is smooth and it could be for the next three months that we're going to watch this.feedback

Jan 31 2017

If she's thinking about doing something, she'll probably tip her hand [in February's testimony] and set us up for what she's going to do in the March meeting. The March meeting is a lot closer than we all probably think … that's particularly something to look at and focus on. CPI has been higher. Inflation seems to be stabilizing and moving higher. Economic activity and growth and a lot of those confidence measures, like consumer confidence, are looking good. Broadly speaking, the data has been good as well.feedback

Jan 18 2017

It seems like there's potentially three rate hikes in the cards for 2017. Our thinking was there were two for 2017. This certainly came as a little bit of a surprise to the markets. She said she expects a few rate hikes this year. I don't know what that exactly meant, but I would say three is now more a probability.feedback

Dec 13 2016

I think too much is unknown. They're not going to involve themselves in that. They're going to do what they can do based on the economic evidence at hand.feedback

Nov 19 2016

Trade, that's the wild card. We may be getting way ahead of ourselves. There is one thing we can't measure, and that is animal spirits. If animal spirits are rising and confidence is moving higher, that could be surprising.feedback

Nov 19 2016

The thing with balancing points is they're inherently unstable. We're not going to stay here for long. We're either going higher in this shared optimistic world, or we're going to flip around say nothing is going to to work – we're back to stagflation.feedback

Nov 19 2016

If you believe there has been a fundamental shift in the markets with a Trump presidency, which means it's going to be more about business investment, capex … then yields should be higher, north of 2.75 percent. If you believe we're still in secular stagnation mode, then yields are going to be lower.feedback

Sep 29 2016

I think there's going to be enough uncertainty in the market, whether it's the election … it can go one way or the other. It just makes people de-risk, raise cash, stay closer to home and invest when there's opportunity. If there's a big move up or down people may react to it.feedback

Aug 19 2016 - Federal Reserve

I think the important thing that's going on right now, and this is all conjecture, nothing's been official. What it seems like to me is the monetary policy experiment of low and negative interest rates is coming to an end. It doesn't mean they're going to hike rates. It's just that they believe that persistently lowering and lowering rates isn't the answer. It's got to be something else. They've got to change tact a little bit.feedback

Aug 19 2016 - Federal Reserve

The markets didn't react to them almost at all. That tells me the Fed has a credibility problem. When you have two strong individuals speaking … and the markets say I don't believe you, that's a big problem. Actions might have to be taken to correct that. If we can't take them at their word, that's a problem.feedback

Jun 27 2016 - Christian Democratic Union of Germany

I think it's going to be with us for a while. The economic data matters, but what matters more is what does [German Chancellor Angela] Merkel say; what does Cameron say and what does Boris Johnson say? Who knows? These are politicians. How do you discount that in the market?…How do you value what they're going to say and how do you judge when they're going to say something?feedback

Jun 27 2016

I think they're going to move slowly because there's not a lot of room for them to do anything. Could they do more asset purchases? I guess. Could they cut rates a little more negative? I guess. They could do some of those things, but there's not a lot they could really do here. Money's cheap enough.feedback

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