Last quote by Jim O'Sullivan
Jim O'Sullivan quotes
The data will only help the case of those at the Fed arguing for holding off on tightening pending more clarity.
Fedspeak has bordered on Fedequivocation recently, and not just because of multiple voices. Individual officials have sent mixed signals as well.
Tightening as soon as September 21 remains possible, but it would probably require stronger-than-expected data in the next couple of weeks. We don't see much chance of a move at the November 1-2 meeting; Fed officials will likely want to keep a low profile in the week before the presidential election.
Today's report helps the case for more Fed tightening before too long – if strength is sustained – although officials are being ultra-cautious amidst turmoil in global markets.
It's almost too smooth the way it's worked out so far, and something's got to give, but that is essentially the interpretation so far.
The pattern will naturally be read as evidence of slowing, although the data can be volatile and a significant change in the trend is not being signaled by [jobless] claims.
It was striking how frequently Yellen used the prepared line 'monetary policy is not on a preset course' whenever she was asked whether recent developments had changed the outlook.