Last quote by John Briggs
John Briggs quotes
Increased fiscal stimulus which could spur growth and inflation, and funded by tax cuts. That means a huge amount of money and supply. That's what's happening in rates, in a sentence.
The reopening of the email investigation into Hillary Clinton certainly throws a wrench into the Presidential election now just eight days away.
They would like to go in December. Rosengren's dissent is interesting. ... He's worried about financial stability aspects of keeping rates low, to the point where he's willing to dissent.
They're trying to look past the weakness from earlier this month when they said economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of the year. I think they're hoping the data will give them cover to go in December.
The information value is low in this. They've just been proven incorrect so many times.
It takes away demand.
We're cautious until we get that behind us.
We'll see what the data comes out like tomorrow, to see if anybody tries again to reignite this rate hike talk, but (Fed Governor Lael) Brainard put that to bed.
We were always in the position of thinking the Fed doesn't go until December. This just hammers it home. The last two times (that) ISM fell below 52 percent, it was preceding a recession.
We were talking about it here, whether it's 200,000, 225,000 or 250,000.
The market was pretty nervous about tomorrow.
If the market continues to see a September hike, the 2-year yield could near 1 percent.
She could say we want to raise rates twice this year and the markets will get hit. The end game is the markets are going to take them out of September, if they signal it too strongly.
The media has been trying to spin how all these Fed speakers are trying to talk up the chances of a rate hike, so we've gotten up to a 55 percent chance of a rate hike by December.
It's better. We're getting a little knee jerk reaction. We'll see if that persists.
It's hard to see her deviating from the press conference she just had. I don't know how [Yellen] go[es] from being as uncertain as [she was] Wednesday to gaining certainty next Tuesday.
Don't go too crazy on the June rate hike. There's still a lot of hurdles and even if those hurdles are met, there's still a Brexit vote.
We see core (CPI) ticking down to 2.1, which is in line with the consensus. The Fed's not going to be in any rush if inflation is slowing down. There's nothing in that number that's going to get the Fed to move.
It really puts off the Fed. We've had a number that misses then the trend comes back. I'm not ready to say Q1 weakness has totally filtered through to Q2, but it's a concern.
If you've been long and you're heading into the Fed, and you don't think they're going to do anything, would you rather have the opportunity of losing a five-basis-point rally or being shocked and losing 10 to 15 basis points? I still think it's too early for them to set up a June hike. There's no upside for them to do that.
It's probably a contributing factor. If you wanted to, you could argue the front end is moving on Bullard, but slightly.