Last quote by John Kilduff
John Kilduff quotes
The positive spin today is the growing exports, and there's a higher level of natural gas usage intensity. They [utilities] really shifted away from coal in a big way ... that's showing up in the base load demand for natural gas, and thermal coal shipments are down.
I'm looking for it in the short-term to get back down to $2.60 depending on how things look. I'm tempted to get long down there. I do think when the summer heat comes, it will be intense enough to get us back on the upside above $3, $3.50.
We're seeing cargos go out to Asia more and more. We've been waiting for this to happen. We'll see how it goes. We're going to face competition. It's incredible that we were able to put 9.5 million barrels into storage last week, while exporting a million barrels a day.
If [prices are] slipping, there's a great incentive to continue to stabilize the market.
Gasoline was what was leading us down. The demand seems to have normalized, . The glut is still there. It's going to take some time to work through, but a super glut was priced in and it doesn't look like we're going to get that.
Oil is under tremendous pressure now. It's below the major moving averages and we're going into the shoulder demand season.
As soon as those comments hit the wires, you saw a bit of a rally in crude oil.
Something else that jumps off the page is how much gasoline demand is down. We're down 5.7 percent from the same period last year. Sometimes it says something about the economy.
The report was bearish across-the-board, with the building inventories and lackluster demand. But with Dow 20k and the rampant reflation trade, the losses couldn't hold. It is a case of no asset class left behind.
There's still real questions about the OPEC/non-OPEC deal. It's only getting about 60 percent of compliance. That's what the observations are to date, based on shipping and other monitoring.
They'll ramp up productive capacity. It's going to be a very up-and-down year.
We're the bread basket and the refiner to the world. There's wild cards out there. Does the OPEC production deal hold together? Do the frackers come back in a big way? This is a tough year to call. In my opinion, it's the hardest one to call in a while because of all the policy uncertainty. The only thing that's supportive is we don't have an aggressive Saudi posture any longer. That's a big change.
Part of the national average is being driven higher by the New Jersey gas tax and other taxes that will kick in starting New Year's. It has the potential, given all the exports. That's been the change, especially the sales to Mexico. What's going to happen to Venezuela is anybody's guess and they have refinery capacity that would be a problem if it's lost for any period of time.
The boat is loaded to one side in the market right now. Shorts have covered. People have piled in from the long side, waiting for these cutbacks to come through. If they don't, there's going to be big punishment in this market. That's the real demand center. That's the swing place, and I still see issues there.
You saw a big increase in their crude oil demand to feed those refineries. The problem is that they just turned that all right around and exported the refined product to the global market, particularly out in Asia.
This is exactly what several of them had been worried about. This deal gave new life to the shale industry. OPEC's going to have its hands full with them for a time.
If there's enough meat in the profit margin, they're going to send it no matter what the spread is.
With these cuts, it's a big opening for more U.S. oil to go out that way.
The report was bearish despite the overall crude oil drawdown. Refined product inventories rose by a substantial amount, due to elevated refining activity, back above 90 percent utilization, and lowered demand, especially for gasoline.
It's not the old oil market. There's just a lot of flexibility, a lot of moving parts to it. It's going to be volatile.
In the bond market, they say don't fight the Fed. In the oil market, you have to remember not to fight the Saudis.
We came to refer to it as verbal intervention.
The Saudis really pulled off a victory for themselves ... I think that the most recent selloff in crude oil scared them all into this. I think they saw what lay ahead if they didn't do this.
They're like a dysfunctional family. They tried to cover up their discord as long as they could.
This is the make or break moment for oil prices, certainly over the course of the next 12 months. If they pull off a deal obviously, we'll go appreciably higher and that could help revive U.S. shale production and other things. If they don't, and the Saudis take a harsh stand, the oil patch is going to be in for some harsh sledding here, at least into the spring of next year. This is momentous. This could be good for $20 either way.
If they don't, and the Saudis take a harsh stand, the oil patch is going to be in for some harsh sledding here, at least into the spring of next year. This is momentous. This could be good for $20 either way.
The price is going to crater. I think the Saudis are trying to position themselves for a failed meeting with this talk that the market will re-balance anyway. I think what they would say is they're going to revisit it in the spring after northern hemisphere winter peak demand period … If there's failure to come together, I think there's going to be a punishing outcome for some time.
I think it's a reason for Iran in particular, not to do a deal. If they are expecting a revision of the nuclear deal, a re-tightening of the sanctions or even just unilaterally, it's going to make life difficult for them again. You saw the talks break down. The Iranians were accusing the Saudis of reneging on some big promises. I assume they were reneging on Iran being exempt from the cuts.
Part of the game plan here for the Saudis is to bring everybody to their knees and have them crawl back to the bargaining table. It looks like (Iraq) might have buckled. We'll have to see the real thing; with Iraq is the math is fuzzy. What might be a cut for them might not be a cut in anyone else's eyes.
Their desperation front and center, and to a degree, the Iranians are actually using this potentially to undermine the kingdom even more.
There's just no way the Iranians are going to agree to this. I think they see a horizon, potentially, where their oil production and exports get disrupted again by the new Trump administration, … so why would they agree to any sort of cut at all right now?
The outlier, worst case scenario for oil producers is if … the Saudis get their patience completely tried and blown and they go to a production level that is even higher than it is now.
This price crash has really changed the landscape in so many ways.
I think the market is going to see right through this deal. It's not going to be good for them. They'll be scrambling again.
It means there's no deal. Everybody's racing to produce as much as they can. The battle for market share persists and the glut's going to be with us for a while.
There's obviously another leg lower. It found some support for the moment, but we're down over 10 percent from the highs.
This is the wake up call for OPEC.
You have a very visible double top on the chart. The high from June of $52, and the high of last month of $52.
I think the market is in the process of calling (OPEC's) bluff, and you'll see these prices lower and lower into the meeting, forcing them or daring them into doing something.
We've been below trend for a while.
I expect it to correct back. I don't expect that to persist particularly as our refineries start to come out of maintenance as they've already started to.
I was expecting 2.4 million. It looks like imports rebounded by a good amount.
At some point you had to expect the market to call them out on what they're doing or not doing. Their deeds again just don't match their words, almost to a member. At some point, the rhetoric game gets played out.
Refinery run rates are just too low not to see substantial crude builds.
The report was bullish, due to the large drop in crude oil inventories, caused by a significant drop in imports that came in below 7 million barrels per day.
The decline in distillate fuels, of late, are starting to add up, and further drawdowns are likely as a result of the depressed refinery run rate. We remain a long way from supplies getting tight, but it is a trend worth monitoring.
You're seeing more product exports from the likes of China, and so really, the products side of the situation is still fairly bearish.
It looks like there's more demand out of China, but the problem is the crude is basically making a round trip. That kind of demand rings hollow to me.
It's mildly supportive at best, but it's a drop in the bucket though. That's the problem.
I don't think we'll see new highs.
It makes me think they're not serious about any cutback agreement.
It does fly in the face of the agreement. It's just another thing that belies the agreement and the prices we're at right now.
The $45 level was starting to bring them back. They're driving down costs all the way through the production chain.
OPEC's track record on adhering to production cuts to quotas is ridiculously poor … if not nonexistent. You can't believe they're going to come through on this one either.
The Iranians see an opportunity to squeeze the Saudis, the way the Saudis saw an opportunity to squeeze the Iranians back in 2014.
The big takeaway is how into a corner the Saudis have backed themselves. This whole plan has backfired on them. They're going to be bearing most of the cutback if they pull it off, and they've had to really kowtow to the Iranians in this whole thing.
The report is bullish given the crude oil and distillate category inventory declines. The low imports continue to drag down overall crude inventories, defying expectations of a strong rebound.
They may try to string us along one more time until November.
Iran will never agree to that, and the Russians are skeptical. It's falling apart right before our eyes.
The Colonial pipeline mess is evident in the gasoline data, which showed supplies stranded in the Gulf and drawn down in the East. We will have to see if the trends normalize next week.
What's happening is it's backing up in the Gulf Coast, in Louisiana, Texas. They'll start shipping this aggressively ... it'll ultimately balance out. You just look at the balance sheet and see we're just terrifically oversupplied at multiyear levels.
It was a small leak, it should be really transitory. It was 6,000 barrels but they said they can't figure it out yet.
It's the autumn of consumers' content.
The October to December spread can be 10 to 15 cents wide.
Next week's report will be telling, whether last week's lost barrels finally show up in the petroleum balance sheet.
The big rise in distillate inventories should weigh, as the category assumes the mantle of seasonal leadership.
That looks to be disrupted by the storms as well.
This is an aberrant report of the first order. I think the East Coast shipments were probably affected by Gaston earlier. There was also a barge that got sunk in the Houston Ship Channel. That also affected the ability of ships to move in and out of the channel.
The gasoline drawdown added to the bullish nature of the report. Demand for gasoline remains strong as well, well after the supposed peak driving period.
The market continues to be reactive to the claims of cooperation of OPEC and Russia, giving them tremendous benefit of the doubt on their talk of potential coordination.
There's a fear they could come together. These low prices are pushing this disparate group into each other's arms.
The line in the sand for the Saudis seems to be $40.
I think that's where this thing ends badly for them. The shoulder (maintenance) season will be at its height right about then.
They've had some success talking the market up so they'll stay at it. There's enough people believing that for now, that there's a floor.
I think it ultimately fails but certainly their rhetoric is good enough to keep above that level.
Rigs are going to continue to climb.
If oil's low, there's a chance they may forge an agreement, but it won't be worth the paper it's written on.
These elevated prices may last a bit just because the market has given so much reward to the rhetoric right now.
For me, if the rally fails at any point between here and $52, we could go all the way back down to $40, if not $38. My thesis is the next washout is the one that gets these market producers to modify their behavior.
The last go-around, I was utterly convinced the meeting would end in failure. This time I'm not. I think you have to be more cautious on this one, with these Saudi statements and the Iranians closer to full strength.
There's some key technical numbers right around $35, and I think that's what we're going to consider before we can have a more constructive outlook.
That could be the low point of an oil price decline. The rebound we're seeing right now is a function of the record short position that got built up in this market.
The market has richly rewarded this rhetoric, and you can't argue that.
There may be a little bit more to it this time. I'm still very skeptical, but it's just with Iran being where they are production-wise, they'll be more inclined to eventually go along with a deal.
The IPO is definitely a consideration. This next trip down (in price) could push them back into each other's arms. So much of this is a joke. If they strike a freeze at these levels, we're at record (production levels). Saudi is at 10.5 million. Iran is coming back and if the hike is U.S. rig counts keep coming, it's more of the same.
The bandwagon trade just two months ago was that we will hit $60, but now $35 is looking like more of a reality.
There was a thought the strong gasoline demand would drain the swamp but it hasn't. I think we're going to ultimately head down to at least $35.
While in line with expectations, the drawdown is large enough to provide support, and refiner demand for crude remains elevated.
We were on a beautiful trajectory, until we topped out at $52. There's sort of a double top on the chart. You need to power through that to make the next run to $60. It did fail there.
There was real optimism and hope. It was arrested judgement that this market was getting into balance. It's not right now. Next year it may be better but now it's not and we have a big glut to work off here.
There seems to be a natural limit on the price, because these companies are scrambling to generate cash. So the first chance they can to make a dollar or two per barrel, they're going to do it.
The report is bullish with the large crude oil inventory decrease of over 4 million barrels. The stepped-up demand by refiners and a plunge in imports helped create the decline.
The battering you've seen the Asian markets take overnight is central to undermining the recent rally that we've had.
It's going to be a big deal. If there's a jump of double digits, it's going to be significant. Anecdotal reports show there's some activity in the Permian Basin, in particular, where the breakevens are about $35.
This chart defies my own skepticism.
It's pretty clear from today's meeting that the Saudis don't want a cut and there's not going to be one.
The Canadian blaze, horrific as it is, is far south of the real producing fields to cause real lasting damage to production there. The Libyan barrels weren't really on the market anyway.
The Kuwait strike in particular is a major factor. It was a bolt out of the blue in terms of how much oil came off the market so quickly. Usually these things have a ramp down period but this seems to be able to flick a switch...It's supportive for the market for now.
As far as Saudi finances, they have plenty of room to tap the global credit markets and even sell a stake in portions of Aramco.
I think it's negative. I think the market has rewarded them richly for action and inaction will be punished.
I think there's a lot invested now in a successful conclusion to this meeting so it would seem real easy to disappoint come Monday.
The market seized upon it and it was seen as bullish. As we inch closer to a deal, if there is one, it's obviously bullish for the market. I remain skeptical, however.
This could be the mother of all buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news.
It's a remarkable crude build reported by the API, which will definitely create some worry in tomorrow's trade for oil bulls.
If there's some bullish outlook for demand or the economy, they will try to get ahead of the curve and increase production even sooner.
It's a Russian inspired farce.
This is a mega build As a result of refinery maintenance season. There can only be more weeks like this ahead. Inventories will only getlarger from here. We're going to see more fireworks.
They're definitely feeling it. But I guess they figure it's worth it in the long run.
I don't know when that's going to dawn on them, but it's going to be lower from here. It seems pretty clear.
Whatever the number is, the logic behind it is the market has to reach a shocking level for oil producers of all (types) to respond.
The Arch Coal bankruptcy reminds me that 0 is the ultimate number for these bankruptcies.
It's the second time we had a piercing low. I think it could be in the $20s next week.
People were confused by some of the reporting around the Saudi-Iran row, but I think it's clear now that it's an intense throw down over market share.
It's the biggest increase in gasoline supply since 1993. Gasoline prices are going to collapse.
Gasoline was the sole source of strength within the complex, and that looks to have ended.
OPEC maybe as we know it is over because these two are not going to be coming together any time soon on modifying or moderating production.