John Kilduff - Again Capital

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Last quote by John Kilduff

In this page, you will find a list of 158 quotes from John Kilduff, from different articles. We analyzed 117 articles in which John Kilduff has been quoted in topics like Saudis and OPEC. John Kilduff’s most recent quote is: “Going to Iraq to shore up support and push not just for six months but to push for nine months is getting the attention of the market. There are rumors that they want out of the deal. They want an exemption like the Iranians.”. To see more examples John Kilduff’s views and opinions, check out the section below.
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John Kilduff quotes

I'd say it remains lackluster but refiners are cranking out high volumes of supply. If we get confirmation of these numbers, we'll have another leg lower. This could be another catalyst, particularly if gasoline leads the way down. It's the commodity in the complex that you look to see either supporting them or undermining them.feedback

That will remove quickly any kind of thought that those supplies might get tight.feedback

There was a big jump in refinery utilization. We went from 91 percent to 92.9 percent. We're approaching full capacity when you start getting up around these numbers. It's bearish for gasoline in particular, to the extent the end product value comes down and pulls down the price of oil with it. The fact we're only down a million barrels on crude in the face of the refinery run rate speaks to how well supplied we continue to be. There was a misperception out there that when the refinery runs are finally cranked back up that you'd see these crude oil inventories plummet, and that's not the case.feedback

We've gotten down pretty quickly to test $50 support. It's been sticky … the big number to watch is $47. If we break that we're going to go to $42 and touch the November lows.feedback

[Wednesday's] crude drawdown was not as large as expected. There was also a large jump in refinery capacity utilization ahead of the peak summer driving season. That's weighing on the perception of the [EIA] report. That's another bearish sign for oil prices.feedback

In other words, production of these refined products is expected to rise, increasing inventories.feedback

You have to question whether the Syrian situation has now become a proxy that divides them more than the low oil prices united them. So that's a big deal here. The real test is going to come as we get to these warmer months and do the Saudis ramp up production to meet their internal demand. On the surface, it will look like Saudi production is spiking. These are the easy days to comply with the deal. But the hard days are coming.feedback

People are nervous ahead of the weekend. If you have Iran and Russia in the mix, a significant amount of oil hangs in the balance in that regard.feedback

It's kind of a one-two punch. [In April], we're going to see U.S. domestic production from the shale players rise by 100,000 barrels. That's going to hurt. Saudis are not going to want to lose market share.feedback

May [futures] pared its discount to June by 60 cents, indicating expectations for tighter physical market conditions.feedback

It should be somewhat supportive of [U.S. oil prices] in the short run, particularly if the exports keep up. But it obviously is a challenge for the global market and a renewed threat to OPEC and their designs of keeping prices up. Certainly if it keeps up at this pace, you would think it would help the balance. But we were up again in the lower 48 states in terms of production.feedback

This is looking like a complete backfiring on OPEC and what they were trying to do.feedback

This pipeline will just make it easier for that oil to not only get to our market but to the global market, improving supply. So keeping a lid on prices is the bottom line.feedback

All this additional crude oil should keep our input costs lower, which will make our refined products even more competitive.feedback

It was a supportive report, due to the large drawdown in refined product inventories. The crude drawdown was small, and was impacted by a drop in imports. The import levels continue to fluctuate in a wide-range week-to-week.feedback

That OPEC report was a bit of a shock with the Saudis self-reporting a 10 million barrel a day production number. The secondary sources had them producing under 10 million. The market reacted badly to that and the acknowledgement that global inventories were rising. The headline acknowledgement and prices sold off ... I think they're going to engineer another prices collapse, they've got to do more than that. It's got to be in everybody's face. I think the real wake-up call is when you break $35.feedback

The long speculators just bailed out left and right, and the technicals look bad.feedback

Everybody was focusing on long speculatives' interest in this market – [there was] also one of the biggest short commercial positions in this market because [drillers] have all taken advantage of the rise above $50 to lock in their cash flows going forward.feedback

Now the OPEC and the non-OPEC adherents to the deal that was cut have a big problem on their hands because these guys aren't going away as quickly this time.feedback

It was the same set up as 2014, speculators were long, and commercial interests were short.feedback

Obviously, it's bearish. They're going to have to show considerable production constraint having that spare capacity. That's the kind of capacity historically only the Saudis have had.feedback

Saudi Arabia is the key to the market right now. They have cut more than their commitment under the deal, carrying the load that is driving the high compliance rate. If [the Sauids] waver on IPO'ing Aramco or see a real loss of market share, they could decide to produce full-out, again in response.feedback

With those two together, the U.S. is becoming an export juggernaut.feedback

We are an oil nation now. We are a petroleum state. You have to see how far down our shale producers can drive down their costs. It's hard to see them competitive with the likes of Saudi Arabia, but they are competitive with some other countries.feedback

The pressure on prices is going to stay in place and ultimately break us out of this range to the downside. I'm not sure the Saudis don't throw it down … but history says the shale guys will cut back.feedback

OPEC is definitely looking over its shoulder at these rising numbers of exports, and it's undermining their efforts on a daily basis. Some of it's going to Asia. China is one of the more unusual buyers in there. The shale guys are filling the gap of the very cuts that were put in place by the market.feedback

It looks like compliance is going to be well below 80 percent. Exports are on the upswing. We're seeing the tanker data.feedback

Whatever strength was left in this market got destroyed by the this weather pattern. Just two weeks ago, some of the models were showing a possibly cold March, and that's over.feedback

The positive spin today is the growing exports, and there's a higher level of natural gas usage intensity. They [utilities] really shifted away from coal in a big way ... that's showing up in the base load demand for natural gas, and thermal coal shipments are down.feedback

I'm looking for it in the short-term to get back down to $2.60 depending on how things look. I'm tempted to get long down there. I do think when the summer heat comes, it will be intense enough to get us back on the upside above $3, $3.50.feedback

We're seeing cargos go out to Asia more and more. We've been waiting for this to happen. We'll see how it goes. We're going to face competition. It's incredible that we were able to put 9.5 million barrels into storage last week, while exporting a million barrels a day.feedback

If [prices are] slipping, there's a great incentive to continue to stabilize the market.feedback

Gasoline was what was leading us down. The demand seems to have normalized, . The glut is still there. It's going to take some time to work through, but a super glut was priced in and it doesn't look like we're going to get that.feedback

Oil is under tremendous pressure now. It's below the major moving averages and we're going into the shoulder demand season.feedback

As soon as those comments hit the wires, you saw a bit of a rally in crude oil.feedback

Something else that jumps off the page is how much gasoline demand is down. We're down 5.7 percent from the same period last year. Sometimes it says something about the economy.feedback

The report was bearish across-the-board, with the building inventories and lackluster demand. But with Dow 20k and the rampant reflation trade, the losses couldn't hold. It is a case of no asset class left behind.feedback

There's still real questions about the OPEC/non-OPEC deal. It's only getting about 60 percent of compliance. That's what the observations are to date, based on shipping and other monitoring.feedback

They'll ramp up productive capacity. It's going to be a very up-and-down year.feedback

We're the bread basket and the refiner to the world. There's wild cards out there. Does the OPEC production deal hold together? Do the frackers come back in a big way? This is a tough year to call. In my opinion, it's the hardest one to call in a while because of all the policy uncertainty. The only thing that's supportive is we don't have an aggressive Saudi posture any longer. That's a big change.feedback

Part of the national average is being driven higher by the New Jersey gas tax and other taxes that will kick in starting New Year's. It has the potential, given all the exports. That's been the change, especially the sales to Mexico. What's going to happen to Venezuela is anybody's guess and they have refinery capacity that would be a problem if it's lost for any period of time.feedback

The boat is loaded to one side in the market right now. Shorts have covered. People have piled in from the long side, waiting for these cutbacks to come through. If they don't, there's going to be big punishment in this market. That's the real demand center. That's the swing place, and I still see issues there.feedback

You saw a big increase in their crude oil demand to feed those refineries. The problem is that they just turned that all right around and exported the refined product to the global market, particularly out in Asia.feedback

This is exactly what several of them had been worried about. This deal gave new life to the shale industry. OPEC's going to have its hands full with them for a time.feedback

If there's enough meat in the profit margin, they're going to send it no matter what the spread is.feedback

With these cuts, it's a big opening for more U.S. oil to go out that way.feedback

The report was bearish despite the overall crude oil drawdown. Refined product inventories rose by a substantial amount, due to elevated refining activity, back above 90 percent utilization, and lowered demand, especially for gasoline.feedback

It's not the old oil market. There's just a lot of flexibility, a lot of moving parts to it. It's going to be volatile.feedback

In the bond market, they say don't fight the Fed. In the oil market, you have to remember not to fight the Saudis.feedback

The Saudis really pulled off a victory for themselves ... I think that the most recent selloff in crude oil scared them all into this. I think they saw what lay ahead if they didn't do this.feedback

They're like a dysfunctional family. They tried to cover up their discord as long as they could.feedback

This is the make or break moment for oil prices, certainly over the course of the next 12 months. If they pull off a deal obviously, we'll go appreciably higher and that could help revive U.S. shale production and other things. If they don't, and the Saudis take a harsh stand, the oil patch is going to be in for some harsh sledding here, at least into the spring of next year. This is momentous. This could be good for $20 either way.feedback

The price is going to crater. I think the Saudis are trying to position themselves for a failed meeting with this talk that the market will re-balance anyway. I think what they would say is they're going to revisit it in the spring after northern hemisphere winter peak demand period … If there's failure to come together, I think there's going to be a punishing outcome for some time.feedback

I think it's a reason for Iran in particular, not to do a deal. If they are expecting a revision of the nuclear deal, a re-tightening of the sanctions or even just unilaterally, it's going to make life difficult for them again. You saw the talks break down. The Iranians were accusing the Saudis of reneging on some big promises. I assume they were reneging on Iran being exempt from the cuts.feedback

Part of the game plan here for the Saudis is to bring everybody to their knees and have them crawl back to the bargaining table. It looks like (Iraq) might have buckled. We'll have to see the real thing; with Iraq is the math is fuzzy. What might be a cut for them might not be a cut in anyone else's eyes.feedback

Their desperation front and center, and to a degree, the Iranians are actually using this potentially to undermine the kingdom even more.feedback

There's just no way the Iranians are going to agree to this. I think they see a horizon, potentially, where their oil production and exports get disrupted again by the new Trump administration, … so why would they agree to any sort of cut at all right now?feedback

The outlier, worst case scenario for oil producers is if … the Saudis get their patience completely tried and blown and they go to a production level that is even higher than it is now.feedback

This price crash has really changed the landscape in so many ways.feedback

I think the market is going to see right through this deal. It's not going to be good for them. They'll be scrambling again.feedback

It means there's no deal. Everybody's racing to produce as much as they can. The battle for market share persists and the glut's going to be with us for a while.feedback

There's obviously another leg lower. It found some support for the moment, but we're down over 10 percent from the highs.feedback

You have a very visible double top on the chart. The high from June of $52, and the high of last month of $52.feedback

I think the market is in the process of calling (OPEC's) bluff, and you'll see these prices lower and lower into the meeting, forcing them or daring them into doing something.feedback

I expect it to correct back. I don't expect that to persist particularly as our refineries start to come out of maintenance as they've already started to.feedback

I was expecting 2.4 million. It looks like imports rebounded by a good amount.feedback

At some point you had to expect the market to call them out on what they're doing or not doing. Their deeds again just don't match their words, almost to a member. At some point, the rhetoric game gets played out.feedback

Refinery run rates are just too low not to see substantial crude builds.feedback

The report was bullish, due to the large drop in crude oil inventories, caused by a significant drop in imports that came in below 7 million barrels per day.feedback

The decline in distillate fuels, of late, are starting to add up, and further drawdowns are likely as a result of the depressed refinery run rate. We remain a long way from supplies getting tight, but it is a trend worth monitoring.feedback

You're seeing more product exports from the likes of China, and so really, the products side of the situation is still fairly bearish.feedback

It looks like there's more demand out of China, but the problem is the crude is basically making a round trip. That kind of demand rings hollow to me.feedback

It's mildly supportive at best, but it's a drop in the bucket though. That's the problem.feedback

It makes me think they're not serious about any cutback agreement.feedback

It does fly in the face of the agreement. It's just another thing that belies the agreement and the prices we're at right now.feedback

The $45 level was starting to bring them back. They're driving down costs all the way through the production chain.feedback

OPEC's track record on adhering to production cuts to quotas is ridiculously poor … if not nonexistent. You can't believe they're going to come through on this one either.feedback

The Iranians see an opportunity to squeeze the Saudis, the way the Saudis saw an opportunity to squeeze the Iranians back in 2014.feedback

The big takeaway is how into a corner the Saudis have backed themselves. This whole plan has backfired on them. They're going to be bearing most of the cutback if they pull it off, and they've had to really kowtow to the Iranians in this whole thing.feedback

The report is bullish given the crude oil and distillate category inventory declines. The low imports continue to drag down overall crude inventories, defying expectations of a strong rebound.feedback

They may try to string us along one more time until November.feedback

Iran will never agree to that, and the Russians are skeptical. It's falling apart right before our eyes.feedback

The Colonial pipeline mess is evident in the gasoline data, which showed supplies stranded in the Gulf and drawn down in the East. We will have to see if the trends normalize next week.feedback

What's happening is it's backing up in the Gulf Coast, in Louisiana, Texas. They'll start shipping this aggressively ... it'll ultimately balance out. You just look at the balance sheet and see we're just terrifically oversupplied at multiyear levels.feedback

It was a small leak, it should be really transitory. It was 6,000 barrels but they said they can't figure it out yet.feedback

Next week's report will be telling, whether last week's lost barrels finally show up in the petroleum balance sheet.feedback

That looks to be disrupted by the storms as well.feedback

This is an aberrant report of the first order. I think the East Coast shipments were probably affected by Gaston earlier. There was also a barge that got sunk in the Houston Ship Channel. That also affected the ability of ships to move in and out of the channel.feedback

The gasoline drawdown added to the bullish nature of the report. Demand for gasoline remains strong as well, well after the supposed peak driving period.feedback

The market continues to be reactive to the claims of cooperation of OPEC and Russia, giving them tremendous benefit of the doubt on their talk of potential coordination.feedback

There's a fear they could come together. These low prices are pushing this disparate group into each other's arms.feedback

I think that's where this thing ends badly for them. The shoulder (maintenance) season will be at its height right about then.feedback

They've had some success talking the market up so they'll stay at it. There's enough people believing that for now, that there's a floor.feedback

I think it ultimately fails but certainly their rhetoric is good enough to keep above that level.feedback

If oil's low, there's a chance they may forge an agreement, but it won't be worth the paper it's written on.feedback

These elevated prices may last a bit just because the market has given so much reward to the rhetoric right now.feedback

For me, if the rally fails at any point between here and $52, we could go all the way back down to $40, if not $38. My thesis is the next washout is the one that gets these market producers to modify their behavior.feedback

The last go-around, I was utterly convinced the meeting would end in failure. This time I'm not. I think you have to be more cautious on this one, with these Saudi statements and the Iranians closer to full strength.feedback

There's some key technical numbers right around $35, and I think that's what we're going to consider before we can have a more constructive outlook.feedback

That could be the low point of an oil price decline. The rebound we're seeing right now is a function of the record short position that got built up in this market.feedback

The market has richly rewarded this rhetoric, and you can't argue that.feedback

There may be a little bit more to it this time. I'm still very skeptical, but it's just with Iran being where they are production-wise, they'll be more inclined to eventually go along with a deal.feedback

The IPO is definitely a consideration. This next trip down (in price) could push them back into each other's arms. So much of this is a joke. If they strike a freeze at these levels, we're at record (production levels). Saudi is at 10.5 million. Iran is coming back and if the hike is U.S. rig counts keep coming, it's more of the same.feedback

The bandwagon trade just two months ago was that we will hit $60, but now $35 is looking like more of a reality.feedback

There was a thought the strong gasoline demand would drain the swamp but it hasn't. I think we're going to ultimately head down to at least $35.feedback

While in line with expectations, the drawdown is large enough to provide support, and refiner demand for crude remains elevated.feedback

We were on a beautiful trajectory, until we topped out at $52. There's sort of a double top on the chart. You need to power through that to make the next run to $60. It did fail there.feedback

There was real optimism and hope. It was arrested judgement that this market was getting into balance. It's not right now. Next year it may be better but now it's not and we have a big glut to work off here.feedback

There seems to be a natural limit on the price, because these companies are scrambling to generate cash. So the first chance they can to make a dollar or two per barrel, they're going to do it.feedback

The report is bullish with the large crude oil inventory decrease of over 4 million barrels. The stepped-up demand by refiners and a plunge in imports helped create the decline.feedback

The battering you've seen the Asian markets take overnight is central to undermining the recent rally that we've had.feedback

It's going to be a big deal. If there's a jump of double digits, it's going to be significant. Anecdotal reports show there's some activity in the Permian Basin, in particular, where the breakevens are about $35.feedback

It's pretty clear from today's meeting that the Saudis don't want a cut and there's not going to be one.feedback

The Canadian blaze, horrific as it is, is far south of the real producing fields to cause real lasting damage to production there. The Libyan barrels weren't really on the market anyway.feedback

The Kuwait strike in particular is a major factor. It was a bolt out of the blue in terms of how much oil came off the market so quickly. Usually these things have a ramp down period but this seems to be able to flick a switch...It's supportive for the market for now.feedback

As far as Saudi finances, they have plenty of room to tap the global credit markets and even sell a stake in portions of Aramco.feedback

I think it's negative. I think the market has rewarded them richly for action and inaction will be punished.feedback

I think there's a lot invested now in a successful conclusion to this meeting so it would seem real easy to disappoint come Monday.feedback

The market seized upon it and it was seen as bullish. As we inch closer to a deal, if there is one, it's obviously bullish for the market. I remain skeptical, however.feedback

This could be the mother of all buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news.feedback

It's a remarkable crude build reported by the API, which will definitely create some worry in tomorrow's trade for oil bulls.feedback

If there's some bullish outlook for demand or the economy, they will try to get ahead of the curve and increase production even sooner.feedback

This is a mega build As a result of refinery maintenance season. There can only be more weeks like this ahead. Inventories will only getlarger from here. We're going to see more fireworks.feedback

They're definitely feeling it. But I guess they figure it's worth it in the long run.feedback

I don't know when that's going to dawn on them, but it's going to be lower from here. It seems pretty clear.feedback

Whatever the number is, the logic behind it is the market has to reach a shocking level for oil producers of all (types) to respond.feedback

The Arch Coal bankruptcy reminds me that 0 is the ultimate number for these bankruptcies.feedback

It's the second time we had a piercing low. I think it could be in the $20s next week.feedback

People were confused by some of the reporting around the Saudi-Iran row, but I think it's clear now that it's an intense throw down over market share.feedback

It's the biggest increase in gasoline supply since 1993. Gasoline prices are going to collapse.feedback

Gasoline was the sole source of strength within the complex, and that looks to have ended.feedback

OPEC maybe as we know it is over because these two are not going to be coming together any time soon on modifying or moderating production.feedback

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