Last quote by John Ryding
John Ryding quotes
The Fed has paid too much attention to short-term market volatility. Communication is unclear. … The Fed needs to rethink and clarify the basis for policy decisions.
The underlying trend to a tighter labor market remains intact. It seems clear that the problem with the jobs market is hiring new employees that are suitable for available positions, which in itself is a sign of labor market tightness.
This takes the Fed a step and a half closer to the next increase in interest rates.
Striking workers will be considered off payroll for the May jobs report. We provisionally estimate that May payroll growth could be held down by around 40,000 by this effect.
We strongly feel that the peaks in both overall and core disinflation pressures are behind us.
A data dependent Fed should be focused on these developments and see that the most up-to-date, high-frequency measure of economic activity in the U.S. shows no signs of slackening growth in response to market volatility and developments abroad.
Labor market trends remain firmly intact.
We interpret this as a sign of a mismatch between the needs of employers and the skills of job seekers. Since firms appear unable to fill job openings with unemployed labor resources, we expect there will be competition for already-employed workers, which should lead to stronger wage growth.
Low job cut announcements, layoff rates, and jobless claims point to companies seeking to retain workers in a tighter labor market environment.