Junichi Ishikawa - IG Securities

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Last quote by Junichi Ishikawa

While the ebb in French political risk and prospects of a ECB policy shift have helped the euro, the biggest support factor still remains the recent weakening of the dollar in wake of 'Russiagate'. Merkel's comments was extra fuel for the euro...that said, a weaker dollar is not necessarily a bad thing for Trump.feedback
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NEW May 23 2017 Trump Presidency
Junichi Ishikawa has been quoted 27 times. The one recent article where Junichi Ishikawa has been quoted is Pound sags vs yen after Manchester blast, euro at six-month highs. Most recently, Junichi Ishikawa was quoted as having said, “While the ebb in French political risk and prospects of a ECB policy shift have helped the euro, the biggest support factor still remains the recent weakening of the dollar in wake of 'Russiagate'. Merkel's comments was extra fuel for the euro...that said, a weaker dollar is not necessarily a bad thing for Trump.”.
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Junichi Ishikawa quotes

Of biggest interest for currencies is whether the ECB will hint at policy tapering. It could spell the beginning of the end of the Trump rally if the ECB does provide such a hint.feedback

The market is likely to greet a strong payrolls report with a straight forward enough response and bid the dollar higher. But the rise could fade quickly amid the 'Trump risk' woes.feedback

Whether the latest bull phase by the dollar is real or not depends on how the various U.S. asset markets can co-exist with the prospects of a Fed hike. While it is plain to see that higher Treasury yields are pushing up the dollar, equities are also up. Dollar/yen has climbed above 104 amid lessened demand for the yen as the stock markets are holding up.feedback

Hawkish views from Fed officials can prompt short covering in the dollar, but they are not sufficient enough to kick off an uptrend. This is because the markets now expect only one or two rate hikes this year, when at the end of 2015 they had expected up to four.feedback

The dollar could suffer a sudden fall, with the Dow possibly falling any time now following days of successive record highs.feedback

The dollar continues to benefit from the strength in U.S. equities, which have gone a head above their global peers and are attracting money thanks to high dividends, with strong earnings also helping. This has resulted in 'risk on', sustaining the dollar's rise against the yen.feedback

The euro falling against the dollar shows the impact negative German bond yields are having. The markets have to brace for the European Union falling into dysfunction if Britain leaves.feedback

A June U.S. rate hike is now out of the question and the focus is whether the Fed provides any hints of a July hike. There are no major U.S. indicators until the Fed's policy meeting next week, and the dollar is likely to remain bearish until then.feedback

The yen gained as risk aversion overcame the Fed officials' hawkish views. Upward pressure on the yen was stronger due to weaker stocks and falling commodities.feedback

Japan will host the G7 summit in May. It cannot afford to invite almost guaranteed criticism by intervening through yen-selling after it adopted negative interest rates.feedback

The authorities also have to keep U.S. political developments in mind, as presidential hopefuls Trump and Clinton have both been critical of Japan's stance on currencies.feedback

China risk adds a layer of support to the yen, which already looks to appreciate this year as Japan's current account surplus grows at a faster-than-expected pace.feedback

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