Kallum Pickering - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co.


Last quote by Kallum Pickering

With little slack in the labour market, the degree of mismatch between the skills of the remaining workers and the skills demanded by firms will widen, this should underpin a modest acceleration in wage growth over time.feedback
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NEW Oct 18 2017 Unemployment
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Kallum Pickering is associated, including U.K. and EU. Most recently, Kallum Pickering has been quoted saying: “It will be interesting to see whether Jeremy Corbyn goes even further left versus his manifesto in the election and whether Theresa May does the same.” in the article What to expect from the Labour Party Conference.
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Kallum Pickering quotes

Jun 08 2017 - Brexit

If the exit polls are right, tomorrow will be interesting, to put it mildly.feedback

Jun 08 2017

All hell could break loose metaphorically speaking, at least at first.feedback

May 08 2017 - Brexit

While downside risks to near-term demand from Brexit uncertainty and rising inflation should be watched carefully, almost a year of data shows that these risks have failed to materialise in any serious way. If the Bank of England waits too long it could fall behind the curve, and may face the prospect of hiking faster than would be desirable to try to bring inflation under control, and in doing so causing the negative demand shock that led to its cautiousness to begin with.feedback

Apr 19 2017 - Brexit

I don't see much merit to the story that an increase in Conservative seats following 8 June election May will dilute the hard-Brexiteers on the Conservative backbenches, enabling May to go for the softer Brexit that she wanted all along. No major change to my sterling forecast. Part dollar story, part Brexit story; markets pricing in 2018 Fed rate hikes and the potential for early clashes in the Brexit negotiations suggests that sterling will head a little lower from here for the rest of the year.feedback

Mar 21 2017

As our base case, we look for a 25 basis point first rate hike in the second quarter of 2018, with a 30% chance the BoE raises the bank rate earlier. After today's data release, risks to that call are skewed towards the BoE hiking sooner rather than later.feedback

Mar 16 2017 - Unemployment

There is a clear case for tighter monetary policy in the UK. The economy is in its eighth year of expansion, unemployment is at a record low, and households are gearing up again.feedback

Mar 16 2017

As our base case, we look for a 0.25 percentage point first rate hike in the second quarter of 2018, with a 30pc chance the Bank of England raises the bank rate earlier. After the first hike, the Bank will likely continue to proceed with extra caution, with small and infrequent rate hikes signalled far in advance, and with a strong bias toward remaining in neutral as and when risks to growth surface.feedback

Mar 10 2017

Driven by solid domestic demand and the global upswing that began in the second half of last year, and now compounded by the Donald Trump-led pick-up in demand from the US, the UK industrial sector is on track for a solid year of growth after some six years in the trenches.feedback

Mar 08 2017

Beyond the next couple of years, the long-term economic and fiscal outlook will be heavily influenced by the post-Brexit relationship between the U.K. and the E.U. The chancellor continues to take a low-risk approach to fiscal policy, setting generous fiscal targets with sufficient headroom in case growth slows by more than expected. An increase in spending on projects designed to boost productivity and raise trend growth would be well timed.feedback

Mar 08 2017

With the economy facing significant long-term risks from Brexit, the budget will most likely further illustrate the government's lack of initiative and willingness to use fiscal policy to support the long term growth outlook.feedback

Feb 01 2017

That the BoE will likely raise its sterling forecast implies less inflationary pressure through the exchange rate in the medium-term. However, stronger expected demand growth relative to potential supply growth will probably raise the BoE's assessment of underlying inflationary pressure.feedback

Jan 17 2017

By lowering growth in trade, investment and migration with the UK's biggest market (EU) we expect our Brexit base case to reduce UK potential growth to 1.8 percent per year from its pre-referendum rate of 2.2 percent. The accumulated costs of Brexit could add up badly over time.feedback

Jan 13 2017

As a basic scenario we should not expect the U.K. to maintain its passporting rights.feedback

Jan 13 2017

It's clear there's a tradeoff between migration and market access.feedback

Jan 06 2017 - HSBC Bank

The likelihood of messy politics at the start of the Brexit negotiations – likely mid-2017 – will keep the pound down versus the dollar and on a trade-weighted basis during 2017. Cable could easily end 2017 below 1.20. Remember, markets hate uncertainty, and for now, Brexit remains a big black box both economically and politically – for the next couple of quarters at least, sterling will suffer as a result of that.feedback

Dec 30 2016

The long-term outlook for sterling will be heavily influenced by the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. A soft outcome for Brexit would mean a less negative long-term impact growth and a stronger long-term rise in sterling.feedback

Dec 29 2016

There is a low-probability the BoE will alter its stance during 2017. The UK is set for a mediocre year of growth (circa 1.5%) as Brexit uncertainty hangs over the economy, employment will remain at a high level while inflation rises from the sterling depreciation – this is not the sort of mix that would warrant a policy change.feedback

Dec 29 2016

As it stands, (British Prime Minister Theresa) May's hard-Brexit rhetoric and lack of sufficiently strong pro-growth policies suggest supply could be damaged more than demand. Brexit could thus be inflationary in the long term and push the BoE policy rate higher. Markets may begin to ask if the BoE will shift to this stance as early as next year if the economy continues to do well in the near term.feedback

Nov 21 2016

It would be good for markets if Hammond would present specific short and medium term measures to offset he shocks of Brexit.feedback

Nov 08 2016

While prices for imported goods such as fuel and food will be affected the most, households are unlikely to cut back on their consumption as these are essential goods. Instead, the rise in costs for these goods will eat away at the remaining income that would normally finance discretionary purchases such as leisure, retail, hotels and the like.feedback

Nov 08 2016

In a world of sluggish nominal wage growth and low rates of return on savings, (rising inflation) is especially bad.feedback

Nov 03 2016 - Article 50

May and her cabinet had pursued Brexit under the assumption that the prime minister had the authority to trigger 'Article 50' under royal prerogative. Without such power it is unlikely that the government would be in a position to fully pursue a hard Brexit – one where the U.K. placed strong restrictions on flows of migrants from the EU and did not keep a high level of access to the EU single market.feedback

Nov 03 2016

(It) has the potential to materially change the calculus of Brexit.feedback

Nov 03 2016

We expect the BOE to use (Thursday's) November inflation report as an opportunity to take stock on the state of the economy and the effectiveness of its policies, while sending a strong signal that the BOE stands ready to do more if economic conditions were to deteriorate.feedback

Nov 03 2016

The BOE's decision to provide extra liquidity around the vote and then to announce a suitably large monetary stimulus in response to the sharp downgrades in the market's assessment of the U.K.'s economic outlook was appropriate. But the U.K.'s better-than-expected economic performance since the vote has removed the need for the BOE to act again.feedback

Nov 03 2016

We will be looking closely at the BOE's assessment of the forthcoming inflationary headwinds to consumption, the impact of 'hard Brexit' fears on investment, and, if any, the policy implications of the recent weakening of sterling.feedback

Oct 26 2016

I'm more interested in the second estimate in a couple of weeks' time. It will show how business and consumers reacted to the vote.feedback

Oct 26 2016

Brexit is mainly a risk to long-term growth.feedback

Oct 18 2016

The bigger-than-expected drop in sterling has done a lot of the work for the Bank of England.feedback

Oct 10 2016

The uncertainty about the conditions under which U.K. based firms will access the EU market post-Brexit, especially relating to passporting, will weigh heavily on business sentiment.feedback

Aug 03 2016

If the BoE does too little, say, just a rate cut, that would be insufficient to have any meaningful positive effect on demand and risks causing a knee-jerk re-pricing in financial markets. If the BoE does too much, it could spook households and markets into thinking the economy is in worse shape than it is. Coming out too hot could be worse than coming out too cold.feedback

Jul 13 2016

We see a 60 percent chance that the nine-member MPC votes to cut the bank rate, if so, probably by 25bps.feedback

Jul 13 2016

There is a chance the MPC holds for now and instead opts to send a dovish signal that the bank will ease monetary policy three weeks later at the August Inflation Report.feedback

Jan 20 2016

This is the (BoE's) key concern when it comes to wages and inflation as this relationship can become self reinforcing -- lower earnings drive lower inflation and vice versa.feedback

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