Kaneo Ogino

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Last quote by Kaneo Ogino

Investors need to see if he (Trump) can carry out all of his original ideas, compromise, and get organised.feedback
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May 17 2017 Trump Presidency
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Kaneo Ogino is associated, including U.S., US, and dollar. Most recently, Kaneo Ogino has been quoted saying: “The Japanese Golden Week holidays are ahead, and investors have already adjusted their positions. Because of the holidays, we're not seeing the usual Japanese profit-taking or exporter selling on the dollar's rise, though some investors are still hoping for a chance to buy the dollar on dips.” in the article Dollar index edges up, but poised for losing month.
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Kaneo Ogino quotes

It's a really thin market today, and suddenly offers disappeared and short-term players pushed the euro higher and took out stops. That's all.feedback

There are some Japanese commercial accounts that were caught by surprise by the dollar's rise after Trump's election, and still have cover their dollar positions, and are now recalculating their internal expectations for dollar/yen for next year.feedback

The big question is, what sort of pace can we expect from the Fed for next year?feedback

There is some profit-taking, particularly by U.S. hedge funds, ahead of the Fed meeting and the upcoming Christmas holiday.feedback

The economic figures were better than expected, which also pushed up chances of an interest rate hike next month, to nearly 100 percent, with more hikes possible after that.feedback

The market is still short dollars, and Japanese importers are still far behind to cover their exposure, so the downside will be limited even with this unexpected high-speed dollar rise.feedback

Everybody wants to buy the dollar on dips, and is waiting for dips, but there is no dip. The Trump rally can continue, unless some cautious comments come out from the U.S. side.feedback

Even if in the case there is a Clinton comeback and she wins, the market already has reacted to the point where the dollar would have trouble climbing back. It's mostly algo dealing in the market now, with dealers staying out. It's system trading, and it's hard for anyone to catch up.feedback

The dollar/yen is firm, but on the upside, around 105 there are still some Japanese exporter orders.feedback

Some people did not want to be short ahead of that, also with the Bank of Japan and Fed meetings next week, and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data one week from today.feedback

105 was both a psychological and technical point, and it broke ahead of U.S. GDP later today. Some people did not want to be short ahead of that, also with the Bank of Japan and Fed meetings next week, and U.S. nonfarm payrolls data one week from today.feedback

The UK GDP was higher than expected, which boosted yields, and then higher U.S. yields in turn helped lift the dollar.feedback

We'll probably see narrow range trading today, with an options barrier at 104 yen.feedback

Rangebound trading continues, with the 104 level heavy for the dollar-yen. It's just short-term guys, playing in the market.feedback

Low liquidity amplified the move. People suspect a 'fat finger' triggered stop-loss orders.feedback

I think the Deutsche headline risk is still there. It's not finished yet, with many things yet to be revealed.feedback

Many people expected the BOJ not to take any action at all, and the yen to strengthen, so we now see many people buying the dollar back.feedback

With the U.S. off on Monday, rangebound trade is likely to continue today, with the dollar's upside against the yen capped for now.feedback

If the BOJ doesn't take any action, the dollar/yen can fall back to 100 again. But now the focus has also shifted to the possibility of a U.S. interest hike.feedback

People are still selling into sterling rallies, whenever it rises on any of the crosses. The BOE might come up with some supportive measures.feedback

Some banks are not in the market today, or they are just in for commercial orders, ahead of the vote, so dollar/yen will be rangebound for a while. Although the odds seem to favour 'Bremain,' it's still 50/50, and no one wants to be caught short either way.feedback

The longer-term picture has changed for the dollar. We think the multi-year bull trend of the dollar has come to an end. So if the range in euro/dollar is broken, it will likely be on the dollar weakness side, in our view.feedback

Short-term speculators are leading the action. They appear to be selling the dollar and Japanese stocks in tandem, trying to probe for a bottom. They are testing to see if the trough of the recent 110-115 yen range can hold.feedback

The dollar was already off its lows but Abe reminded markets that intervention is a possibility.feedback

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