Kit Juckes

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Last quote by Kit Juckes

On the one hand the OAT( French government bonds) / Bund yield spread continues to knock around at levels that haven't been seen since 2012 and Mario Draghi's 'whatever it takes' moment. On the other, 73 basis points this morning is a lot tighter than the 150 basis points 2012 peak, let alone the levels near 200 basis points we saw in 2011. There's a sense of pre-election nervousness as we enter the final days of first-round voting, but it's not disorderly by any stretch of the imagination.feedback
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Apr 18 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Kit Juckes is associated, including Davos and Janet Yellen. Most recently, Kit Juckes has been quoted saying: “That probably leaves us in no man's land for a while longer but we still like euro/sterling longs for the long run, pairing two 'cheap' currencies and buying the one that isn't sticking pins into a wax image of its economy.” in the article Sterling slips after UK manufacturing loses momentum.
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Kit Juckes quotes

There's a broad consensus that 'No' wins this, and so exactly what?feedback

At the very least, dollar-yen is a buy on dips in this environment. Our target is 120 next year, but our 114 forecast for March could be reached a week after we revised it. If this move continues at the recent pace the whole 2017 USD rally might have been done by the time 2017 even begins.feedback

That, along with (German finance minister) Wolfgang Schaeuble's hard line on Brexit negotiations, won't help the pound which has seen some reduction in short positions according to last week's CFTC data. A brief sortie by the euro back up to 0.88 is possible.feedback

A bit of a euro short-covering rally overnight changes nothing. The $1.0580 area where the last two euro falls have found resistance is the next key support. There's a huge dose of political concern to keep the pressure on the euro ahead of the Italian referendum on 4 Dec, and perhaps ahead of French elections next year too.feedback

Now that we've got ourselves pricing in a pretty hard-looking Brexit into market sentiment ... we're going to be sensitive to anything that challenges that view that we're putting control of immigration above protecting access to the Single Market, bank passporting etc.feedback

I'm slightly surprised the pound hasn't bounced from its fall ... but not surprised enough to prevent me being bearish long-term. To be fair, absolutely no-one is going to change their view of the UK economy, sterling or the wider implications of 'Brexit' until there are mountains of evidence about the economic impact.feedback

We still like being short sterling/dollar and long euro/sterling as the pound's bounce runs out of steam.feedback

We've done some travelling (in rate expectations)... so I can see the dollar trundling higher on today's data. It would take quite a lot for the market to suddenly decide that they're going to go... twice by the end of the year.feedback

Ignoring the last of these we can put some of this down to the fact that the euro has been very subdued this year.feedback

Volumes have grown fast for almost all of my career and this represents the end of a golden age of growth in the market as regulation and scandals have tarnished the industry's reputation.feedback

In another era, there would be massive pressure on the FOMC to raise rates but no-one expects anything from today's meeting. Still, some acknowledgement of the improved economic backdrop is likely in the statement and the market will go on slowly raising the odds of a 2016 rate hike.feedback

On the other hand, if for some reason the data are OK, then who knows? It's bound to be fascinating. When all the dust settles, I think we'll see new lows for sterling.feedback

Any further deceleration in the pace of U.S. employment (and hence economic) growth would take the global economy even closer to stalling speed.feedback

The mood has soured again. The announcement that fund manager Standard Life had stopped retail investors from pulling out of one of the largest U.K. property funds is one catalyst for the downturn in sentiment, though not the only one.feedback

The BoE releases its financial stability report this morning, an opportunity to reiterate the Bank's ability and willingness to manage the financial sector after-effects of the referendum. None of that however, will help the pound. Currency weakness will be tolerated if not actively welcomed. Positioning will dictate the pace of the fall.feedback

The negative economic implications for the U.K. economy leaving the EU are clearly understood but there is plenty of willingness to downplay the impact on the rest of Europe let alone the rest of the world.feedback

The message from Mr Carney is probably that the MPC intends to embark on a limited and gradual tightening of policy, but that will keep speculation that the next move is a cut alive.feedback

The FOMC statement did nothing to help the dollar at all. (There is) no reason to look for more than one more rate hike this year.feedback

The recent drift higher in 10-year Treasury yields (to 1.9 percent) and in breakeven rates (to 1.66 percent) just might prompt a marginally less dovish message than in March; a possibility which will probably give markets a slightly risk-off sense today.feedback

Risk is thoroughly on. All the chit-chat was that they (the Fed) were going to be hawkish, and they weren't.feedback

A slowdown in the pace of sterling's decline against the dollar doesn't yet signal a correction.feedback

My impression is that there is virtually no reserve armory big enough to cope with widespread capital outflows, if capital is allowed to flow relatively freely.feedback

The statement is bound to reflect the softer economic data, tighter financial conditions, global environment and the 2 percent gain in the dollar's trade-weighted index since the last meeting. However, the assessment of the inflation and labor market outlook probably hasn't changed and our U.S. economics team haven't thrown in the towel on the idea of a March rate hike, even if the market has.feedback

The market mood soured overnight - again - as the International Energy Agency warned of an oil glut as Iran returns to the market and other major producers keep supply coming. For once, the short-term focus isn't on Chinese markets, where equities are weaker but not dramatically so and the currency is stable. But that just goes to show that bottling up volatility in one market simply displaces it to others.feedback

China may take a back seat for a day or two, but oil prices remain a threat to markets, as oil-producing countries and companies rethink the medium-term outlook. Weak oil prices will be a major factor behind default rates in 2016 and even if the latest rush of forecasts of oil reaching $25/20/10 (a barrel) aren't proven right, the damage has already been done.feedback

At the moment the yuan is weakening against the dollar but is remaining broadly stable relative to the PBOC's basket [of other currencies].feedback

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