Larry McDonald -


Last quote by Larry McDonald

In both those times, we lost five or six percent. With the election, we lost five or six percent and then there was a vicious
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Nov 15 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Larry McDonald is associated, including Amazon, investment, and cycle. Most recently, Larry McDonald has been quoted saying: “The market is probably a little complacent towards a rules-based shift.” in the article Fresher faces, bigger chance for market disruption.
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Larry McDonald quotes

Aug 11 2017 - Tesla

The deck is stacked for Tesla in bond deal terms, congrats to Elon

Aug 01 2017

The global reflation picture is nearly on the Fed's doorstep. In our view, there's a surging probability the Fed gets thrown off track in the second half of 2017, they are behind the

Aug 01 2017

Commodity prices are rising at the fastest pace in five

Aug 01 2017 - Oil

The option receiving the most attention at the moment would deprive [state-run oil company] PDVSA of U.S. exports of petroleum-blending products. From [a] historical view, former Panamanian strongman Manuel Noriega's U.S. indictment on drug trafficking charges preceded a more assertive policy by the George H.W. Bush Administration in

Jul 05 2017 - Bull market

Getting out in front of the rotation is more important than valuation – as capital flows out of highly concentrated trades it has to go somewhere in a bull market. It's a growth into value

Jul 05 2017

There's definitely elevated risk. But I'm shocked we're not seeing more carryover to other

Jun 08 2017

There's clearly not enough there, so bonds likely sell off

May 24 2017 - Trump Presidency

The market is punishing names with any dependency on tax reform as the Washington gridlock looks here to say. In our view, this has created an opportunity to buy U.S. Steel at a lower cost

May 24 2017

Bond issuers in the country (many of which have government backing) will pay the price. The mothership helps finance much of the banking and follow-on shadow banking system indirectly, this downgrade will leave a

May 17 2017 - Trump Presidency

The Trump agenda has been almost fully priced in here to the market. They're going to push everything out to 2019, so that's the problem. The entire growth agenda gets pushed out, and that's why there's an air pocket in the

Apr 26 2017

The market had big expectations. They were expecting a lot of specifics and a specific rate on repatriation and they're not getting

Apr 24 2017 - Federal Reserve

This is a credit bubble in autos that is very reminiscent of the subprime mortgage crisis. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates too low for too long; the easy-money gravy train has funded a colossal supply of

Apr 22 2017 - OPEC

Now's the time you want to be leaning into some of these

Apr 11 2017

All the classic risk-off measures for Asia are

Apr 11 2017 - North Korea

The speed of the move in the cost of protection is one of the sharpest we've witnessed in years. The market thinks that North Korea will do something in response to Trump's meeting to provoke the White House. It's clearly military action

Mar 23 2017 - American politics

If tonight's negotiations are fruitful, resistance to passage of the House Republican healthcare reform bill will crumble among holdout House Republicans and the bill will garner the necessary votes for passage. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) has not relented from his promise to call up the bill for passage tomorrow. So much is on the line. If this deal fails, the entire 2017 Washington policy time-line comes into question. There's at least a 150 handles of legislative love priced into stocks at today's nosebleed levels. Traders are hoping this 'Hail Mary' lands on

Mar 23 2017

So much is on the line. If this deal fails, the entire 2017 Washington policy timeline comes into question. There's at least a 150 handles of legislative love priced into stocks at today's nosebleed levels. Traders are hoping this Hail Mary lands on

Mar 09 2017 - Front National

Even if [Le Pen] wins, if the government there is going more conservative, it's a better risk-reward in French equities, and they're very, very cheap to U.S.

Feb 16 2017 - Bull market

We're in the camp that the stocks are overbought, but they're in a multiyear bull

Feb 10 2017

Get long retail. This Senate is toxic, guys. This tax bill is light-years away from happening, and even when it does happen, let's just say it does pass ... the tax cuts on the individual side and on the corporate side eventually will ... outweigh the border adjustment tax negative on

Feb 10 2017

Here's the key number: 24. The retail space over the last 24 months is underperforming the S&P by 24 percent – the most significant underperformance for the retail sector since the 1990s recession. The risk reward is fantastic. Get long

Jan 23 2017 - Federal Reserve

There's disconnect between [Fed Chair] Janet Yellen and the Fed and Trump. This past week we saw something very interesting. Yellen was talking the dollar up and Trump was talking the dollar down. That's highly unusual, so the market's going to be looking if there's a continuation of that

Dec 01 2016

The risk-reward in owning Mexican equities is compelling at these

Nov 09 2016

Gold's best outcome is a Trump win, as political uncertainty will lead to economic and financial volatility in a hurry, and recession risk surges. Before the Donald is inaugurated, gold will rise to $

Nov 08 2016

A Hillary Clinton win gets you a slam dunk rally to be sold, a Trump win gets you a 10-15 percent plunge which should be

Nov 07 2016 - Republican Party

If the GOP keeps the U.S. Senate (our call), IBB is a winner in our view. As Trump election odds surge, we believe this will help as

Nov 07 2016

I think it's going to bring in recession risk, but you're going to buy stocks as you kind of go into a recession. It won't be a long

Nov 04 2016

Trump's bark found in his anti-globalization position in reality will be a lot worse than its bite in terms of actual

Nov 01 2016

I'd say the election is a good chunk of

Oct 17 2016

The market's going to push the Fed until the Fed breaks and doesn't

Oct 17 2016

The risk reward even [in] the shorter term is quite good as the market is almost fully in the December hike camp. If those chances are to change to the downside, miners will be a great

Oct 17 2016 - Deutsche Bank

In terms of share price, these stocks will be a lot more concerned with what is going on in Europe. Once we return to a toxic DB [Deutsche Bank] atmosphere that was prevalent just a few weeks ago, US financials will

Sep 29 2016 - Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank is not Lehman in terms of the overall global risk, but the political situation is almost

Sep 29 2016

The politicians in Germany aren't in position right now to do anything ahead of the election. The beast in the market, the serpent in the market, knows this, and the market will push and push and push until they break the politicians in Germany to come up with public

Sep 28 2016

The one consistent thing we've seen with Amazon the last 15 years, really, is they have a big capital expenditure investment cycle that repeats itself over and over

Sep 20 2016

I don't think the Street is ready for

Sep 20 2016

I think we'll be down 10 or 15 percent pretty

Sep 20 2016

Because they kept interest rates so low for eight years, there's $8 or $9 trillion of commodity debt, of emerging markets debt and of oil debt that have been issued out that are dollar

Aug 17 2016

Near term, it's extremely over-bought, and if you look at the new ownership of Apple, the last nine months, you've got about 52 million shares that were purchased by central banks and sovereign wealth funds reaching for yield. There's a premium Apple that's been bid up because of the

Jun 24 2016

A Brexit risk created a blowoff top in bonds that started to form over the past week–a classic blowoff top where you see real panic buying, where you've seen close to 10 trillion dollars in bonds

Jun 10 2016

Central bankers are driving capital into places it just shouldn't be. People are using these types of stocks as bonds. You have investors all around the world flocking to the United States trying to get some income and it's just a very, very crowded

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