Last quote by Louis Kuijs
Louis Kuijs quotes
The current housing construction pick-up supported overall GDP growth in Q1 and should do so in Q2. However, we think it is likely that the property construction cycle will ease again and that the government will need to continue to rely on other drivers, including infrastructure investment, to meet its ambitious growth target of 6.5 to 7 percent for 2016.
I think that at least the biggest fears about the real economy, fears that came to the surface during the stock market rout...I think those biggest fears were overblown.
The growth picture remains two-sided. The real estate construction slump and weak exports continued to weigh on activity. Meanwhile, though, consumption continued to expand robustly, supported by solid wage growth. The robust growth in the consumption and services nexus is key for policymakers. They need it to avoid labor market stress.
Beijing's moves on stocks and currency "are indicative of tension between the leadership's desire for market-oriented reform and the apparent fundamental objective of control. How this tension will be resolved in the coming years will be central to China's economic development and thus will have major global ramifications.
A level of the currency that would make sense for the U.S. doesn't make sense for China.
Unfortunately, this sends signals that at least in area of the stock market, policymakers are making big mistakes and are going back and forth and have kind of lost the game on policy.
The resilience of the relatively labour-intensive services sector has helped the labour market hold up reasonably well in the first quarter, even though it cooled.
With this momentum that the economy is getting into in 2010, we feel comfortable upgrading our forecast and we now project about 9.5 percent growth – GDP growth – for this year.