Louis Kuijs


Last quote by Louis Kuijs

The worry we have is really about US trade policy, which is undeniably turning more protectionist… It is pretty obvious to me that the climate for exports to the US is going to be much harsher in the coming years.
Feb 10 2017
Louis Kuijs has been quoted 20 times. The two most recent articles where Louis Kuijs has been quoted are Asian factories rev up, but Trump threat to demand looms large and China GDP beats expectations but debt risks loom. Most recently, Louis Kuijs was quoted as having said, “Within China, we expect that real estate will slow down, because the government is quite keen to contain housing prices. There has also been a little bit of a shift toward more emphasis on reining in risk rather than supporting growth. We remain quite cautious how much of an acceleration in growth we can see in this pretty challenging climate.”.
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Louis Kuijs quotes

The current housing construction pick-up supported overall GDP growth in Q1 and should do so in Q2. However, we think it is likely that the property construction cycle will ease again and that the government will need to continue to rely on other drivers, including infrastructure investment, to meet its ambitious growth target of 6.5 to 7 percent for 2016.

I think that at least the biggest fears about the real economy, fears that came to the surface during the stock market rout...I think those biggest fears were overblown.

The growth picture remains two-sided. The real estate construction slump and weak exports continued to weigh on activity. Meanwhile, though, consumption continued to expand robustly, supported by solid wage growth. The robust growth in the consumption and services nexus is key for policymakers. They need it to avoid labor market stress.

Beijing's moves on stocks and currency "are indicative of tension between the leadership's desire for market-oriented reform and the apparent fundamental objective of control. How this tension will be resolved in the coming years will be central to China's economic development and thus will have major global ramifications.

A level of the currency that would make sense for the U.S. doesn't make sense for China.

Unfortunately, this sends signals that at least in area of the stock market, policymakers are making big mistakes and are going back and forth and have kind of lost the game on policy.

The resilience of the relatively labour-intensive services sector has helped the labour market hold up reasonably well in the first quarter, even though it cooled.

With this momentum that the economy is getting into in 2010, we feel comfortable upgrading our forecast and we now project about 9.5 percent growth – GDP growth – for this year.

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