Marc Chandler - Brown Brothers Harriman


Last quote by Marc Chandler

At any given month these two will be wildly different. I don't think we get a lot of added information from
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Nov 16 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Marc Chandler is associated, including Fed and U.S.. Most recently, Marc Chandler has been quoted saying: “People are just saying there's jitters about tax reform. Going into the year-end people are nervous. lt's not only about taxes.” in the article There's something weird going on that's worrying the markets.
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Marc Chandler quotes

Aug 23 2017 - NAFTA

I think it's part of the negotiation tactics, and it's scary because the negotiations just

Aug 23 2017 - NAFTA

This is sort of the rule of thumb. When Trump talks bad about something, you wait for the dip and

Aug 21 2017

The topic at hand lends itself to a larger discussion about growth and productivity. It is an opportunity to trot out her own hobby horse about the important steps that need to be done to increase participation in the

Aug 21 2017

If there are going to be tax cuts, how are they going to show a balanced budget to make the Freedom Caucus happy?feedback

Aug 21 2017

I'm not sure we have a White House with that skill

Aug 18 2017 - Federal Reserve

I think Jackson Hole is going to be disappointing. Draghi is not going to say anything. Neither is

Aug 18 2017 - Trump Presidency

I think what people are concerned about is Trump being distracted from what they want, and that's his economic agenda. It's been eight months. He hasn't grown into the office, and he keeps going off the

Aug 18 2017

It's a good thing if it turns out to strengthen Cohn's

Aug 18 2017 - Russia

Within the government, Cohn is the voice of that [business] faction of the coalition. If Bannon's departure is a victory for the Cohn wing, that's one thing. It's going to take time to tell. Trump has just been going off the reservation, and that's not Bannon. I think this is trading on hope. The hope at least that Bannon was the bad apple in the barrel, and all it's going to take is another bad apple to pop up. Remember a lot's going on behind the scenes. The Russia investigation is continuing. This is just the latest

Aug 18 2017 - Bull market

It really doesn't surprise me that in a big bull market in emerging markets, people are not buying the insurance. I would be surprised if it were the other way,

Aug 02 2017 - Federal Reserve

I think this is a combination of negative news out of the U.S. and more positive news out of Europe. There are lower expectations for tighter monetary policy out of the Federal Reserve and higher expectations for more tightening out of the European Central

Jul 31 2017

It's due to political

Jul 31 2017

This underscores how disorderly things were

Jul 26 2017 - China

It looks like China is growing less patient with North

Jul 26 2017 - Russia

Russia is siding with North Korea, and Russia and China have both said they want a peaceful

Jul 26 2017

Most of these things are low level, but Korea I think could get bad

Jul 25 2017

The thing we've been pointing out to our clients is that so far this year, despite these fund managers and analysts liking European stocks on an unhedged basis, that the S&P 500 has actually done better, about 4 percentage points better than the Dow Jones 600 in Europe. So, I think, as this continues, I think we'll see people beginning to move back into the U.S., afraid of missing the

Jul 20 2017

I think this [move] is three-quarters to maybe a bit more Draghi and the market assuming, despite the exact words Draghi used, that there still is a tapering decision coming in

Jul 20 2017

It's not so much the stuff in the U.S. is bad, it's just that nothing good is coming from

Jul 20 2017

There's no resistance to a lower dollar. Next week's FOMC meeting is largely a non event. It's all building up for September for the ECB and September for the

Jul 18 2017

The dollar is under pressure, but it's not a wholesale sell off of U.S. assets. What would be scarier would be if stocks were selling off, and bonds were selling off and the dollar was selling off. Bonds aren't selling

Jul 18 2017

If the [dollar index] goes through 94, it's going to be very ugly. It may be would go toward 92...If it really reaches that point, we should see bond yields

Jul 18 2017

So the six of them think they're going to put tax reform together and jam it down everyone's throat, and this health care bill shows that strategy is

Jul 14 2017

Most of what they're going to do is change the risk assessment away from increasing their asset purchases. That' a step toward tapering. They don't want to taper. They're just removing the downside risk that policy has to be eased

Jul 14 2017 - Federal Reserve

The June inflation and retail sales don't matter for the December

Jul 14 2017 - Federal Reserve

I think there was a window of opportunity. The window shut because of our poor

Jul 11 2017

The revelation is that Trump Junior was willing to take opposition research from the Russians, when instead the proper thing may have been to go to the

Jul 10 2017 - Federal Reserve

When push comes to shove, the ECB is still talking about changing its words. The Federal Reserve is talking about shrinking its balance sheet. Draghi said they're not going to raise rates until they're done with QE [quantitative easing]. I'm not sure it's a concerted effort, but with rates so low the officials are letting some steam out of the system. I think we've unwound a lot of the Trump policy mix … but the reason we were bullish on the dollar last year before the election is the same reason we should be bullish now. It's not about fiscal policy, it's about monetary

Jul 10 2017

Other things look like they're doing well. American shoppers have the wherewithal. Income is going up faster than consumption. I think we'll see the U.S. economy strengthen in the second half of the year. That should boost people's confidence in what the Fed is

Jul 10 2017

Most people thought the dollar would strengthen [this year]. A lot of people thought there would be a pullback on the overreaction to the Trump election, but the dollar has gone lower and stayed down longer than people thought. We started the year with very long dollar

Jul 10 2017

CPI has fallen for four months in a row, and it could stabilize. It could even tick

Jun 08 2017

We don't really know anything today that we didn't really know yesterday. To me, there was nothing really to react

Jun 08 2017 - British elections 2017

I think people are nervous about sterling but the general positioning suggests that people anticipate (British Prime Minister Theresa) May to win and to still hold on to a

Jun 02 2017

Everybody I talk to expects there will be some tweaking of the forward guidance, which has two components. But the markets already know that European rates have bottomed. This is going to confirm what the market already

May 22 2017 - Trump-Merkel

The key issue is about trade and protectionism. I don't think anything changes. I'd say G-7 heads of state has nice photos, but substance, not so much. The meetings are important. Trump is still an unknown quantity for

May 21 2017 - Russia

The escalation of the investigation into Russia's involvement in the recent U.S. election threatens to take resources, time, and attention away from the economic agenda, which had already begun meeting some

May 19 2017 - Trump Presidency

My guess is that this is just a distraction. The reason it's important for investors is not because Trump is going to get impeached, but because it distracts from the economic

May 10 2017

Geopolitics and the divergence of policy have not gone away. It is a reminder that we are often lulled into complacency just before being shocked by how treacherous things really

May 02 2017

The view that housing itself now is poised to slow, I think, is taking hold more forcefully and that's causing the currency to

Apr 25 2017

I think it just shows these are outstanding issues they're going after hard. These are outstanding issues from the Obama administration, and they are just playing harder

Apr 25 2017 - NAFTA

NAFTA negotiations haven't even begun yet, and I think it'll maybe catch people by surprise. We all thought Trump was going to pick on

Apr 24 2017 - French election 2017

What we can be confident in is Macron will be the next president of France. We still don't know about policy and we don't know about the makeup of Parliament. This is the third European election where the national populist didn't win. There's not necessarily a major disruption of globalization coming from the political realm in Europe. One of the important issues is the [political] center is

Apr 24 2017 - Federal Reserve

It will allow the Federal Reserve to continue its rate

Apr 24 2017

This is very much what the market expected so what we saw happen, is that the euro has been marked sharply higher immediately as the results were known and since then it's actually been trickling lower. The big takeaway from this, like the Dutch election earlier this year, is that there is not a populist, nationalist wave sweeping across the

Apr 18 2017 - Front National

I still expect Macron and Le Pen to be in the runoffs. A lot of people think the French election is about the presidential election. It's also about the parliamentary election in June. The president is a figurehead. The problem is none of the candidates have a strong parliamentary presence. The key to the outcome is going to be the parliamentary elections. Political risk is going to subside, but it can't go

Apr 18 2017 - German Politics

The key would be not so much the German election, but the Italian

Apr 13 2017

If the U.S. has 3 percent growth like he thinks we can achieve, and Europe is struggling at 1 percent growth, how do we get a weaker

Apr 13 2017

We've been wavering back and forth on health care and tax reform. Now he's back to health

Apr 13 2017 - Syria conflict

On the margin, it's an easing of tension. ... The U.S. missile attack is not the beginning of a wholesale military involvement in Syria. North Korea, not

Mar 10 2017

I think the odds have to favor more dots, favoring more rate hikes, rather than fewer. Maybe it's going to be a hawkish hike finally. I think the market is underestimating the hawkishness of the regional Fed presidents. Why shouldn't the Fed raise rates once a quarter this year. ... With the employment number and the other readings on the economy, the economy is not fragile. Some of the words they've used are more confident on the economy. I think in the Dutch election, we'll see that the populist party does not shape the

Mar 01 2017 - EU Summit

I'd say the greatest uncertainty around what is happening is the Fed. I feel pretty confident the Dutch populist is not going to win. I feel confident May is going to trigger Article 50. I don't think the EU summit amounts to much. I still lean against it, and the reason I lean against is the discipline in the FOMC statement is the clearest articulation of what the Fed is going to

Mar 01 2017

It's hard to imagine a better month than where the Dow rallies to records 12 days in the month, and where the S&P is only down four

Feb 27 2017 - Protectionism

There are a lot of things people are watching for. ... If he talks about protectionism and how he might have a reciprocal tax, it could go the other way [higher]. Initially the dollar moves higher on protectionism. It partly means stronger

Feb 27 2017

The dollar could sell off if he doesn't address the border-adjustment tax or says it's too

Feb 23 2017

He talks about how the dollar has appreciated since Trump got elected. There's a little problem with his understanding of a strong dollar policy. It's not about the level. It's about telling your trade partners that we will not use the dollar as

Feb 05 2017

The verbal intervention by the new U.S. administration and the unexpected weakness in wage growth may be factors extending the

Jan 31 2017 - Protectionism

I don't think people are going to change their forecasts based on a dozen comments ... The market is trying to wrestle with these new developments, but ultimately policy is what dictates the currency prices. We have to wait and see. If there is deregulation, tax cuts and infrastructure spending, as well as some protectionism, like a border tax, I don't like it but I could see how it could be good in the short run for the U.S.

Jan 31 2017

Part of the problem is he's breaking all kinds of conventions. The whole playbook is out. That alone becomes important to investors. He might believe it, but I don't think that's how the world perceives it. We're in the middle of a correction. This just pushes on the open door. The dollar was already falling. the stock market was already

Jan 31 2017

They can't say the euro is undervalued and at the same time pursue policies that could send the dollar up another 20

Jan 17 2017

We don't know how much credence to give it. Some people take him literally. Should people take him literally? The Chinese don't

Jan 17 2017

It also begs the question of where is power going to be. My sense is power is going to be in the White House, not in the

Jan 17 2017

This is the first time we have a president-elect say the dollar has gone too far. He's saying things and doing things that no president has ever done

Jan 17 2017

It raises questions. Are we back to Lloyd Benson? He talked the dollar down and the dollar collapsed. Is this a jettison of the Rubin strong dollar policy? We don't

Jan 13 2017 - RMB

There may be no good options with the yuan. Slowing the decline can be costly. Allowing the full decline would be

Jan 13 2017 - RMB

If they step away from the intervention to support the yuan and let it fall, it would likely spur a speculative

Jan 12 2017

We've got the Brexit, the Trump election. What's the next point? I don't think it's going to be France. I don't think it's going to be Germany. I think it's going to be the

Jan 11 2017

The dollar weakened against the euro. I think it's been because they've been waiting for the stimulus talk and there hasn't been

Jan 09 2017

The EU says to the U.K., This is not a smorgasbord. If you do not expect the free movement of people you cannot have the free movement of

Jan 09 2017 - Supreme Court

The most important thing now is the [U.K.] Supreme Court decision, and that will be out in the next two to three

Jan 05 2017

If the intervention can push the peso below 21 (to the dollar), we could see some consolidation. If the peso can break below 20.70, it would be even more

Dec 28 2016

If the U.S. gives up being a global leader, in the short term, it's good for the U.S. In the long run, it's probably

Dec 28 2016

I don't see the logic of why it would be good for the dollar. I don't see the logic of taxing imports is good for the dollar. It could boost inflation which would make the Fed more likely to

Dec 28 2016

Right now I think Fed policy and underlying growth are more important than these trade issues. There are a lot of

Dec 28 2016

The nationalism is like an acid that eats away at the glue that holds Europe together. We have bid up stocks. This is tax breaks. This is less regulation. They think Trump is better for

Dec 06 2016

The short-term market is still short euros and I think they might be nervous - time to square up a little bit more ahead of the ECB

Dec 05 2016

If the [euro] doesn't sell off on bad news, I think it's telling us something. I think it's going to correct

Dec 02 2016

Look what happened this week. Italian bonds have done the best in Europe. Italian stocks have done the best in Europe. Italian banks are up 5.2 percent. It means that people think that it's going to be a

Nov 15 2016 - RMB

Right now, I'd say it's just

Nov 14 2016

The derivatives market is beginning to price in a more aggressive Fed. A few days before the election, investors learned that average hourly earnings rose by 2.8 percent year-over-year. This is the fastest in several years, and although one month a trend does not make, it is consistent with a tightening of the labor market, and rising core inflation

Nov 10 2016

It's mostly (U.S.) yields and nervousness about the unknown. When U.S. yields go up, emerging market's get hit, largely because they have dollar denominated

Nov 10 2016

Copper imports fell to their lowest level since February 2015. The drop in copper imports seems to reflect 'import substitution' as domestic output is rising with new smelters coming

Nov 08 2016

As long as there's no surprise, I think it's going to be anticlimactic. I am long euros against the Swiss franc – the anti safe-haven trade. I think Trump's not going to

Nov 08 2016

There's a trend line that came in at

Nov 08 2016

Everybody's got their bets on the table. There hasn't been any earth-shattering economic data. Things are

Oct 28 2016

This is just sort of a knee-jerk reaction, not representative of what's going to

Oct 23 2016

The main consideration seems to be the contrast between Fed officials like Fischer and Dudley who have been signaling a rate hike before the end of the year, while the ECB has arguably signaled a likely extension of its asset

Oct 18 2016

We've had some disappointing U.S. economic data. I think that it's spurring a little bit of a correction. It's mostly a technical correction after the

Oct 18 2016

The dollar's gotten stronger as more people think the Fed will hike rates in

Oct 10 2016

Economic data does not help very much to explain sterling's movement. The fact of the matter is that the UK has fared well in the three and half months since the

Oct 10 2016

The depreciation of sterling will have an impact on the UK current account balance. It will be reduced, but do not be surprised if it comes from reduced volume of imports as much as an increase in value of

Oct 07 2016

This is part of the new

Oct 01 2016

The dollar looks firm against the yen after the 100 yen level was repeatedly tested. However, the upside may be blocked near 102.00

Sep 30 2016 - RMB

The RMB joins the SDR formally on Oct 1. Some people would argue that ahead of the formal entry, they've been bending over backwards to keep the currency stable so afterwards, they might have less of a reason to keep it

Sep 26 2016

I do think there's a knee-jerk reaction. A Trump victory is bad for stocks, bad for the dollar. For the dollar, what happens after cooler heads prevail is a different

Sep 22 2016

It appears to be stabilizing at lower

Sep 19 2016 - Trans Pacific Partnership

Many argue that monetary policy is reaching its political and/or ideological limit, even if theoretically interest rates can go deeper into negative territory than the ECB or BOJ

Sep 19 2016 - London

When was the last time that London as cheap for Americans? Thirty years ago. For the Chinese it's almost 10 years

Sep 02 2016

The real weakness is in the

Sep 02 2016

The jobs data is not weak enough to get people to give up on their Fed

Sep 01 2016

If we get a strong number above 200,000, I would say the odds would go up. If we get a number much below ... 150,000, I would say the odds fall much further. I would expect the dollar to go in the direction of the

Aug 31 2016

I think the technical tone, not only for U.S. stocks, but emerging market equities as well has really deteriorated. You'd expect people to take some profits on the summer rally of risk

Aug 29 2016

The next barrier is in the 102.00-102.60 band. A campaign through 103 would negate the potential head and shoulders potential continuation pattern we previously

Aug 24 2016

I think that what is driving the yen – mostly Japanese lifers, pensions, corporates hedging their foreign investments or dollar assets – may not be blunted by prospects of higher [U.S.]

Aug 16 2016

The world could live with higher U.S.

Jul 27 2016 - RMB

For me to be convinced on a September rate hike, I would have wanted to see more dissents. The reason I lean against it and say the bar is high, is because I think they're still worried about the international developments. There is an Italian vote in October that could rattle markets and China's yuan becomes part of the IMF's key currency

Jul 27 2016

The nervous Nellies have likely been reassured by both the improvement in the labor market, renewed consumption and the general resilience of the capital markets in light of the UK's

Jul 15 2016 - Turkey

Uncertainty clouds the picture, but Turkey is not so important to the economic channels. It's more important

Jul 14 2016

The market is fickle. If we get a few more good jobs reports, upward pressure on wages and prices in general and the global economy is not very disruptive, the Fed could raise rates … I do think the stars need to be

Jun 27 2016

Markets are crazy and it's going to be awhile before we can get a sense of security. The important thing is you don't have full participation. You have big volumes going through but a lot of people are going to avoid the market – asset managers, corporations… they don't need to be heroes, let the other guys pick the

Jun 13 2016

Ahead of the referendum, many look for sterling to underperform and the yen and Swiss franc to outperform. The euro and central and eastern European currencies are vulnerable, while risk assets, in general, are expected to weaken on a Brexit

Apr 11 2016

While February's machinery orders fell less than anticipated, Japan markets remain weighed down by a strengthening yen and uncertainty surrounding when, or if, the Bank of Japan will

Apr 11 2016

There have been a few weekly downdrafts of the dollar that were larger, without sparking an

Mar 23 2016

I've been arguing the Fed can't go in April because they want to put their spin on it, but they're paying attention to this loss of credibility

Mar 23 2016

You've had three regional Fed surveys for the month of March all stronger than expected. Plus four or five Fed officials have sounded like they want to raise

Mar 23 2016

I think this credibility issue is sufficient and economic data is stronger. Core PCE deflator was 1.7 percent. The Fed may under promise and over

Mar 22 2016

The attack in Brussels, on the back of terrorist attacks in Turkey over the weekend ... is bad news for the U.K., because it plays into the hands of those who want to leave, thinking that somehow if they leave they're

Mar 09 2016

I think it's too soon to expect Japan to do

Mar 09 2016

Changing the 'dot plot' is capitulation on the part of the

Mar 09 2016

Core CPI inflation and core PCE picked up. Inflation expectations picked up. Another month would make the Fed feel more

Mar 09 2016

To me, the real thing that happened is inflation

Feb 02 2016

Weaker oil prices mean interest rates stay lower for

Jan 08 2016

I could not imagine a better report from the Fed's point of view. I can't think of one time when the U.S. had a recession with this kind of jobs

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