Mark Cabana - Bank of America Merrill Lynch

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Last quote by Mark Cabana

Recognizing that the data is going to be very choppy and noisy in the interim, and as a result of that it's going to be really hard to get clear signals. Our economists are expecting 17.6 million (annualized vehicle) sales, which is an increase from the prior 16 million.feedback
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Sep 29 2017
If you look at the rest of the world, there was a noticeable move in 5- and 10-year rates in the U.S., Europe, the U.K., even Japan and Canada. We think this is likely a sort of a global reassessment of term premiums, just given the fact we may be turning the corner on global monetary policy accommodation, and in the U.S., we're talking about tax cuts, almost certainly financed by a period of additional deficits.” said Mark Cabana on this article: Three reasons that bonds may have come to an important turning point. This page contains 26 articles quoting Mark Cabana. Main topics on which Mark Cabana is quoted are House and Republicans. In addition you’ll find 51 quotes there. All these quotes are mentioned on this page and you can filter them by date and by topics.
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Mark Cabana quotes

Jul 26 2017

[Treasury Secretary Steven] Mnuchin told us that the government would be able to fund itself through September. Once we get into October. it's much more uncertain how long it will last. Our concern is they run out of funding in early October. The current resolution financing the budget runs out in the end of September as well. So you could have a coupling of these two issues. If there's no budget passed and the debt limit is associated with that, the market could become more apprehensive about the Treasury's ability to make good on its obligations in October.feedback

Jul 26 2017

[The Fed] just signaled that September is quite likely that they move forward with this. The biggest risk is the debt limit and any tightening of financial conditions.feedback

Jun 09 2017 - UBS

I think that the market actually took this released testimony to indicate that there wasn't a clear smoking gun. There wasn't much we didn't already know, so I think there was a little bit of relief after that largely because there wasn't another shoe to drop. While the testimony made for interesting theater, I don't think it really gave the market a tremendous amount of direction.feedback

Jun 09 2017 - UBS

We actually think it will be tough for them to be more dovish than what the market is pricing.feedback

Jun 01 2017

I think it's more like what the growth outlook looks like beyond this year. The market is showing a lot of skepticism about the belief that anything will get done on the fiscal policy side. I've not gotten that sense that the bond market, the individuals, have a recession starting next year as a main point in their central scenario, but again that's what the levels would tell you, and in order for bond yields to go much lower from here, you've got to think the Fed is going to stop hiking.feedback

Jun 01 2017

If you're constructive on bonds, at least in the near term, that likely implies a pretty high chance of a recession starting in the middle of next year, and we're not of that view. But that's really what the market is telling you.feedback

May 23 2017

If we see a majority of participants signaling the data does not signal a weakening trend, that would be instructive that the Fed is looking through its recent softening and is not deterred by it.feedback

May 17 2017 - Republican Party

It's really ultimately a risk nothing gets done. Some Fed officials have put fiscal stimulus in their forecast. For those that have, if this drama continues and there is a lack of progress on that domestic agenda I would imagine they would have to adjust that.feedback

Apr 26 2017 - Trump Presidency

It sapped a lot of the optimism that this was going to be easy and that the Republicans were going to be able to use their clean sweep to quickly pass legislation.feedback

Apr 25 2017

I don't think much of the move is related to renewed optimism over the tax plan. There's still an expectation that there's a long way to go on this plan. We expect to see essentially the outlines of the broad strokes they would like to have, but not too much details. That leaves a lot of room for negotiation that will be needed between the White House and Congress.feedback

Apr 21 2017 - French election 2017

There are more negative than neutral or positive scenarios. If Macron does make it to the second round that should take some of the tensions out of markets. As long as he makes it, some of these other very negative scenarios go away.feedback

Apr 07 2017 - Oil

There was a bit of a knee-jerk reaction to the headline.feedback

Apr 06 2017

The Fed has stated its intention to reduce its securities holdings by simply not rolling over its maturing proceeds. The Fed will likely not engage in asset sales as a core part of the reduction process.feedback

Apr 04 2017 - Trump Presidency

We think ultimately there will be some sort of fiscal stimulus delivered.feedback

Apr 04 2017 - Trump Presidency

Watching how the continuing resolution at the end of the month is resolved will be constructive in terms of how Republicans and Democrats are able to get along. Both parties have an incentive to try to get that resolved in a timely way. The congress is only in session for the rest of this week, and then a few days in late April. Something needs to happen quickly on that, and depending on how easy that is, it could signal how they will work on other results. I think they really need a win, and that is probably the cleanest way to do that.feedback

Mar 21 2017

I certainly do think if this doesn't go through, it increases the risk of a risk-off move and you could see a temporary movement into bonds. We still remain overall optimistic something will get done, and that underlies our view for higher overall rates. The Fed is going to continue to move gradually. We do believe rates will move higher. This certainly does increase near-term downside risk.feedback

Mar 21 2017

I think it's certainly interesting the market is questioning it, based on the limited amount of votes the Republicans can afford to lose in the House. It suggests if you thought this party would be voting as a block on the key agenda items, that might not be the case. It might be a lot more fractured party than many might have anticipated. In the not-too-distant futures, Republicans are going to need to pivot.feedback

Mar 03 2017

If you get something close to trend labor force growth, they're OK with it. Anything above that makes the Fed quite pleased.feedback

Mar 03 2017 - Federal Reserve

This is quite unusual in relation to recent history. It does make one wonder if there was some kind of coordination, intentionally, to talk up the market. The last time we heard from Yellen and [Fed Vice Chair Stanley] Fischer, they were discussing a gradual approach. Just the drum beat of Fed speakers this week shows they at least wanted to have the option of going at this meeting. The fact the market is handling it means it would be disappointed and quite surprised if it didn't hike. That makes you think the Fed will follow through.feedback

Feb 22 2017

It's a pretty big one. I think you'd see equities sell off, yields decline, dollar potentially weakens. The market would certainly welcome him [Mnuchin] front-running it. The market's looking for any kind of clarity. It seems Trump, Mnuchin, Gary Cohn or Paul Ryan are the ones the market is looking to, to get some clarity.feedback

Feb 22 2017

He has discussed that in the past so certainly any guidance he can give on debt management issues and what changes, if any will be forthcoming. Even if Treasury keeps their funding mix unchanged, the average maturity is going to extend. It's not too terribly controversial to see if he was going to extend the average maturity. What would be more controversial to the bond market would be if he is going to discuss reallocation going from the front end to the long end. He basically suggested that he would like to consider increasing the average maturity of the debt back in November.feedback

Feb 22 2017

I think certainly tax reform is going to be the top question for him. I would want to know what the timeline looks like. How's the White House working with Congress? How's Congress working with itself in terms of progress? It seems the sticking point is how tax reform will be paid for, so I want to know what is the current thought on the border-adjustment tax.feedback

Feb 14 2017

She certainly wanted to give herself the option of going in March if the data does reflect that. I think she might be thinking that the market was a little too pessimistic on that potential.feedback

Feb 14 2017

That probably achieved what she was thinking in trying to get the market a little more cognizant. It doesn't seem like she was pushing so hard on that notion and would rather wait to see how incoming data looks and see if that's something the Fed needs to do.feedback

Feb 01 2017

You really did see the market pretty much retrace the front end of the rates curve of what was priced in after that ADP report. Maybe they were thinking the Fed would trust ADP as a reliable indicator of underlying economic growth and maybe come out and be a little bit more hawkish. The Fed clearly chose not to do that and not to provide a signal for March. I think some people that were playing for that were a little disappointed.feedback

Feb 01 2017

In terms of what's known on the calendar, the other thing that will be quite meaningful is [Fed Chair Janet] Yellen's [congressional] testimony and the Fed minutes the week after that. Outside of that the thing the market is going to be quite focused on is political developments in the near term and how likely fiscal stimulus will be.feedback

Feb 01 2017

If they were unhappy with where the market was priced for March right now, they could have chosen to adjust their tone a little bit, but given they decided not to, that indicates they are pretty comfortable given where the markets are for March. Let's see what happens Friday. If the data is really strong, that could convince the Fed to put March in play.feedback

Jan 10 2017

We're setting up for some showdown in the Senate with Cabinet-level confirmation hearings. That has reduced slightly some of the optimism that we would see something happen quickly in the second half of the year.feedback

Jan 10 2017

We are in a big wait and see mode as to how policy will be implemented in the near term.feedback

Jan 10 2017

The pace of implementation is now beginning to be questioned to some extent, and I don't think anyone is really doubting we will get tax reform or fiscal stimulus, visa vis lower tax rates. There may be some defunding, but there's not a clear path of what it will be replaced with.feedback

Dec 15 2016

The speed of the move has been a little surprising. That said, there's certainly risks to the upside from here. We prefer to just wait and see ultimately how the fiscal policies will shake themselves out, and just wait to see how the growth outlook begins to materialize in the first half of the year before we look to revise them.feedback

Nov 14 2016

This should increase the estimate of the deficit. One of the scorers estimated Trump's plan could add $5 trillion to the deficit. We seriously doubt that. You do have deficit conscious hawks in the House, which will try to limit anything that materially adds to the deficit.feedback

Nov 14 2016 - Federal Reserve

I think there's a fundamental rethink in the near-term outlook, as it relates to expectations for growth and also (Federal Reserve) policy. All of this has to do with increased optimism that there will be some fiscal stimulus in the near term and some type of deregulation, both of which will underpin growth.feedback

Nov 14 2016

Maybe that would have been 10 to 15 basis points. Nothing like this kind of move we've made. It's because you would have (had) continued gridlock in Washington. The Republicans would have continued to hold the House and that would have been a continued gridlock.feedback

Nov 14 2016 - Federal Reserve

We do think all of this means the Fed will likely have to be more active. We are going to hear from Chair (Janet) Yellen this week. She is likely to reiterate a December hike is on the table, and any type of fiscal stimulus will be well received.feedback

Nov 14 2016

At 2.5 (percent on the 10-year), we might start to begin looking to fade. We might see a level around there as fair.feedback

Jul 06 2016

First, a flight out of gilts by risk-averse foreign investors should benefit Treasurys ... second, attracting global liquidity when real rates are constrained and monetary policy is considered ineffective is not good news for inflation expectations.feedback

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