Last quote by Mark Carney
Mark Carney quotes
The Brexit journey is really just beginning. While the direction of travel is clear, there will be twists and turns along the way. Whatever happens, monetary policy will be set to return inflation sustainably to target while supporting the necessary adjustments in the economy.
This stronger projection doesn't mean the referendum is without consequence. Uncertainty over future arrangements is weighing on business investment which has been flat since the end of 2015. Business investment is expected to be around a quarter lower in three years time than projected prior to the referendum, with material consequences for productivity, for wages and for incomes.
The Brexit journey is really just beginning. While the direction of travel is clear, there will be twists and turns along the way. The thing that we missed is the strength of consumer spending and consumer confidence associated with that. In many respects, we're coming to the last seconds of central bankers' 15 minutes of fame, to use the Warhol line, which is a good thing.
There is huge operational risk involved in that, there's huge financial risk involved in that. It's not something you do overnight.
In many respects, we're coming to the last seconds of central bankers' 15 minutes of fame, to use the Warhol line, which is a good thing. It's a more balanced policy mix. Also structural policy is becoming more important, trade policy clearly important here and elsewhere.
After all, the history of financial innovation is littered with examples that led to early booms, growing unintended consequences, and eventual busts.
Growth is expected to remain below past averages for the next few years. One corroborating indicator of this potential deceleration is that the UK expansion is increasingly consumption-led.
Monetary policy can respond, in either direction, to changes to the economic outlook as they unfold to ensure a sustainable return of inflation to the 2 percent target.
At present, households appear to be entirely looking through Brexit-related uncertainties.
I am not saying there are not financial stability risks in the UK. And there are economic risks to the UK. But there are greater short-term risks on the continent in the transition than there are in the UK.
It is vital, however, that we learn the lessons of this flash event and similar episodes in other financial markets, as orderly market functioning underpins market confidence. It is also important that firms have adequate governance, systems and controls and give due consideration to the potential impact of their activity on market functioning.
What we as a committee will have to think about, and it is a big call, is whether there is anything that should be done, above and beyond making sure the core of the system is resilient to this. It is a big step to go beyond that.
At some point, losing elements of that has outsized, could have outsized effects, and these are some of the judgments that the government will have to make.
I think that the financial stability risks around that process are greater on the continent than they are for the UK. I'm not saying there are not financial stability risks to the UK, and there are economic risks to the UK. But there are greater financial stability risks on the continent in the short term, for the transition, than there are for the UK.
The MPC remains committed, as always, to taking whatever action is needed to ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchored, and that inflation returns to the target in a sustainable fashion and over an appropriate horizon.
It remains the case that only one third of the top 1,000 U.S. companies produce broadly comparable information on the climate risks they face.
With the right information, you can have optimists and pessimists (on climate change) ... back decisions with capital. This is about giving people the right information.
The disclosure recommendations will give financial markets the information they need to manage risks and seize opportunities stemming from climate change.
The challenge is that investors currently don't have the information they need to respond to these developments. This must change if financial markets are going to do what they do best: allocate capital to manage risks and seize new opportunities.
But it is the whole suite of policies around trade, and recognising that some are left behind by trade, through no fault of their own.
There are limits, however, to the extent to which above-target inflation can be tolerated.
We meet today in the first lost decade since the 1860s. In the wake of a global financial crisis. And in the midst of a technological revolution that is once again changing the nature of work.
The combination of open markets and technology means that returns in a globalized world amplifies the rewards of the superstar and the lucky. Now may be the time of the famous or fortunate, but what of the frustrated and frightened?
Has monetary policy robbed savers to pay borrowers? Has the MPC been Robin Hood in reverse? In a word, no.
Turning our backs on open markets would be a tragedy, but it is a possibility. It can only be averted by confronting the underlying reasons for this risk upfront.
This is extraordinary leverage for an advanced, let alone, an emerging economy.
It will take time to clarify the U.K.'s new relationships with the EU and the rest of the world. And the orderliness of the U.K. economy's adjustment to these changes will influence the risks to financial stability.
It is important to recognize that the United Kingdom is effectively the investment banker for Europe.
Having a degree of clarity, when appropriate, will help promote a smooth and orderly transition.
That institution (RBS) has made a lot of progress over the last several years, particularly around its core business franchise. Its challenge is that it still has legacy issues associated with that. There's misconduct costs, there's impaired assets, they're still working through the so-called non-core assets on which they have made progress.
We could be stuck in this trap, and I use that word advisedly, for decades ... if we don't see major structural reforms.
I will leave June 30, 2019.
If the time to exit is measured in 18 months or less and the degree of exit is viewed as considerable then a number of those firms would take decisions, that's the best guidance I can give.
An excessive focus on monetary policy in many respects is a massive blame deflection exercise.
The President-elect has voiced some views on the Fed and the stance of monetary policy.
This policy is a significant milestone on the journey to end 'too big to fail' in the UK. (It) will ensure that banks that provide essential economic functions hold sufficient resources to be resolved in an orderly way, without recourse to public funds.
You can envisage scenarios where it goes either way. We don't have a bias in terms of direction of where the next move will be. Again, in a period of a fair bit of uncertainty you can envisage scenarios where either direction would be merited. Where we are going to be anchored is around the inflation target and making sure we get that trade-off right.
That uncertainty does bear down on business investment. That does build with time.
Obviously I am not qualified to comment on the court judgment or the prospects here, but it is an example of the uncertainty that will characterize this process. The negotiations haven't even yet begun. There will be uncertainty, there will be volatility around those negotiations as they proceed, and I would view this as one example of that uncertainty.
It is still in the early days of this process.
The Committee has benefited greatly from Clara's expertise in banking and financial markets and from her unique insights as a market practitioner.
We don't need a model coming out of Basel to tell us how to do it. What we expect to happen is that element of the original package ... will be substantially reduced, so that the supervisory discretion is back with the home supervisor.
One of core recommendations had the effect of substantially increasing the capital for so-called operational risk.
We're willing to tolerate a bit of an overshoot in inflation over the course of the next few years in order to avoid (rising unemployment), to cushion the blow and make sure the economy can adjust as well as possible.
Politicians have done a very good job of setting up the system.
We will say farewell to Minouche with gratitude and regret. She helped drive vital reforms on the domestic and international stages, perhaps most prominently in the successful completion of the Fair and Effective Markets Review.
She helped drive vital reforms on the domestic and international stages, perhaps most prominently in the successful completion of the Fair and Effective Markets Review, which she co-chaired.
(I) absolutely feel comfortable with the decision I supported and the committee took in August to supply monetary policy stimulus.
In light of all of the events since the referendum ... I am absolutely serene about the ... judgments made both by the MPC and the FPC.
I cannot see any scenario where I would consider negative interest rates.
In terms of what is the magnitude of clean energy or lower- carbon energy infrastructure and cleaner water sanitation, etc., that will be put in place over the next 15 to 20 years ... it's somewhere in the order of $5 to $7 trillion. The question is how much of that is going to be financed through capital markets.
Carbon pricing is the cleanest way to regulate to stabilize emissions.
We have a clear plan. We're putting measures in place. And it's working.
I did not prejudge the lines of those policy committees. Nor could I. That's not the way the system works, that is not the way the system is set up.
We have an obligation to make these assessments. The debate cannot be about whether we should have made an assessment. If we view something as the biggest risk, we have an obligation, a statutory obligation, to make that clear, to parliament, to the people of the UK.
If we (the Bank of England) view something as the biggest risk, we have a statutory responsibility to make that clear. The assessment of financial stability in March … these are the assessments of the FPC (the Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee). It is an independent body. It is not based on whim, pre-judgment. It is based on analysis; robust debate; assessment. It is our duty to provide these assessments.
This is not a big issue for UK banks.
The exposure of UK banks to commercial property has been kept quite manageable.
Those U.K. households and businesses who want to seize viable opportunities … can be confident that they will be supported by the financial system.
When combined with the already strong balance sheets of UK banks, today's action means that those UK businesses and households who want to seize viable opportunities in the post-referendum world can be confident that they will be supported by the financial system.
The efforts of the Bank of England will not be able to fully and immediately offset the market and economic volatility that can be expected while this adjustment proceeds.
The bank can be expected to take whatever action is needed to promote monetary and financial stability, and as a consequence, support the real economy. These efforts mean we can all look ahead, not over our shoulders.
Some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer.
In my view, and I am not prejudging the views of the other independent MPC members, the economic outlook has deteriorated and some monetary policy easing will likely be required over the summer. The MPC will make an initial assessment on 14 July, and a full assessment of the economy complete with a new forecast in its August Inflation Report. In August, we will also discuss further the range of instruments to supply that monetary stimulus if necessary.
Monetary policy cannot immediately or fully offset the economic implications of a large, negative shock. The future potential of this economy and its implications for jobs, real wages and wealth are not the gifts of monetary policymakers. These will be driven by much bigger decisions; by bigger plans that are being formulated by others.
As we have seen elsewhere, if interest rates are too low or negative, the hit to bank profitability could perversely reduce credit availability or even increase its overall price.
The capital requirements of our largest banks (are) now 10 times higher than before the crisis. Moreover, the bank has stress tested our major banks and building socieities against scenarios far more severe than the country currently faces.
As a backstop, and to support the functioning of markets, the Bank of England stands ready to provide more than 250 billion pounds of additional funds through its normal facilities.The Bank of England is also able to provide substantial liquidity in foreign currency, if required.
We are well prepared for this. The Treasury and the Bank of England have engaged in extensive contingency planning. The Bank will not hesitate to take additional measures as required as markets adjust and the UK economy moves forward.
We are well prepared for this.
Monetary policy cannot immediately offset all the effects of a shock.
Material slowdown in growth, notable increase in inflation, that's the MPC's judgement. It's a judgement not based on a whim, it is the judgement based on rigorous analysis and careful consideration. Of course there's a range of possible scenarios around those directions which could possibly include a technical recession.
Ultimately, monetary policy would be set in order to meet the inflation target, while also ensuring that inflation expectations remained anchored.
(Saunders) brings first-rate knowledge of the UK economy and a wealth of economic and financial experience.
By acting early and comprehensively, the (Bank) can reduce uncertainty, bolster confidence, blunt the slowdown and support the necessary adjustments in the UK economy.
There is a clear case for stimulus, and stimulus now, in order to have an effect when the economy really needs it.
The regulatory framework must ensure that it is able to manage any systemic risks that may arise from technological change without stifling innovation.
We have prioritized work to analyze structural vulnerabilities in asset management activities and to identify risks that may merit policy responses in four areas.
An over-optimistic 'liquidity illusion' may have been reinforced by the growth of investment products offering redemptions at very short notice.
From an individual country's perspective this might be an attractive route to boost activity. But for the world as a whole, this export of excess saving and transfer of demand weakness elsewhere is ultimately a zero-sum game.
Our approach to forecasting events around the referendum is to take developments in markets and confidence indicators, survey indicators as given and to feed those through into the forecast.
I just re-emphasise we have absolutely no intention, no interest in doing that.
I think in fairness I would need to make a determination by the end of the year if I were to request to stay further.
I'm married to the inflation target. That is my fidelity ... I'm not going to ... follow through (on rate rises) ...if it is the wrong thing to do.
So we do have to be careful around that (buy-to-let) sector. And I think collectively there are a number of things happening and we are watching it, we are watching it closely and we will take action.
Were those conditions fulfilled as we proceeded through the year? No, they weren't ... So in terms of overall growth, it's been there, but in terms of the cost developments, it hasn't been.
As the economy progresses … that decision (on whether to continue to keep rates on hold) will become more difficult.
The FMSB has a critical role to play in improving standards in wholesale markets and is a real opportunity for industry to show leadership in making markets fair and effective.
Countries must now put in place the legislative and regulatory frameworks for these tools to be used.
Evidence is mixed, and the baseline for comparison should not be the unsustainable excess liquidity that existed prior to the crisis.
As a consequence, the financing capacity to the real economy is being rebuilt and significant retrenchment from international activity has been avoided.
There is no Basel IV. What we are doing is ironing out issues that have been identified over time in the application of Basel III.
It is clear the benefits far exceed the costs of introducing this standard.
Inflation is at its lowest level since the introduction of inflation targeting two decades ago. It will likely fall further, potentially turn negative in the spring and be close to zero for the remainder of the year.
The exact timing will inevitably be the subject of considerable speculation and interest.
For the first time in a long time you don't have to be an optimist to see the glass is half full. The recovery has finally taken hold.
The aim of our policy is to secure recovery as quickly as possible, that would – of course – be welcome. But policy is not built on hope but on expectation, and we estimate there is only a one in three chance of unemployment coming down that quickly.
While the unemployment rate remains above 7.0 percent, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) stands ready to undertake further asset purchases if further stimulus is warranted.
Our aim is to help secure the recovery, while ensuring that risks to price stability and financial stability are well contained.