Mark Zandi - Moody's Analytics

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Last quote by Mark Zandi

It is not an existential threat to households and the economy. It is an area where there is some stress.feedback
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May 17 2017
We are coming out of deep, dark hole called the housing bust, but we are a long way from normal, and we may never get back to normal, if normal was the average person stayed in their home for four or five years. We're at eight-plus now, and even under the best of circumstances, maybe we get to six.” said Mark Zandi on this article: Real Estate’s New Normal: Homeowners Staying Put. This page contains 53 articles quoting Mark Zandi. Main topics on which Mark Zandi is quoted are Christmas and sector. In addition you’ll find 67 quotes there. All these quotes are mentioned on this page and you can filter them by date and by topics.
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Mark Zandi quotes

There are a lot of tailwinds behind consumers going into the spring, including low unemployment, better wage growth, high consumer confidence and record stock prices.feedback

The reality regarding the economy's performance is not nearly as good as Trump supporters believe nor as bad as claimed by Trump detractors. Trump detractors who believe the new president will quickly drive the economy into a ditch are overly pessimistic. Sustained economic growth is possible, but will require that Trump supporters and detractors find a way to work together. There are budding imbalances today, of which we should be watchful, but none appear close to being an existential threat to the current expansion.feedback

This is creative destruction at its best. We are downsizing a part of the economy that is uncompetitive. While painful for those in the middle of it, this is how we grow and wealth is created.feedback

I actually think it's going to be over 200,000. I think it's going to be a good number. The trade balance is stabilizing and we're starting to export a bit more. The global economy is on firmer ground. The value of the dollar is more stable. Manufacturing took it on the chin when China stumbled and the dollar rose. The economy has stabilized, and the dollar found its footing. That's reflected in better exports, better trade balance, and that's been a big plus for manufacturing.feedback

That is a big turnaround. Goods-producing [industries] were losing lots of jobs a year ago. They're adding jobs. That's why the [government] jobs numbers are holding up as well. The services numbers have been doing what they're doing.feedback

I think we're probably seeing the best of the growth [in manufacturing] right now. We had a really good past three months and probably have a good solid three months to go. I think by the end of the year, it will be softer. The trade balance is stabilizing and we're starting to export a bit more. The global economy is on firmer ground. The value of the dollar is more stable. Manufacturing took it on the chin when China stumbled and the dollar rose.feedback

The economy has stabilized, and the dollar found its footing. That's reflected in better exports, better trade balance, and that's been a big plus for manufacturing. They're weakening now, so as we move through the year, that's not going to be the source of growth. It's not going to be the source of new jobs, as it has been. Sales have peaked.feedback

Job growth is off to a strong start in 2017. The gains are broad-based but most notable in the goods producing side of the economy including construction, manufacturing and mining.feedback

This is still largely an Obama economy. In the year ending in January 2017, job growth averaged 195,000 per month. That is a good estimate of Obama's contribution to the February employment gain. Unseasonably mild winter weather likely added another 50,000 to the February gain. An improving global economy is responsible for about 15,000.feedback

Confidence is playing a large role. Businesses are anticipating a lot of good stuff – tax cuts, less regulation. They are hiring more aggressively.feedback

I think the Trump rally is very vulnerable. It's about corporate tax cuts and lots less regulation. Stock investors are attaching a high probability to both this year. It's almost a done deal in their minds. I doubt it. The odds that the Trump Administration and the Republican Congress get it sufficiently together to pass tax reform and make big regulatory changes are dropping. This is interesting. And a reasonable question. Pence would be an establishment Republicans' dream come true.feedback

The only way we're going to create more manufacturing jobs, more factories here in the United States is if we make it more attractive to be here in the United States. That means a good infrastructure, that lowers transportation costs. If you're a manufacturer and have to move stuff around, you've got to be able to do it more cheaply. It means an efficient and fair tax code, so corporate tax reform would make it much easier to operate here.feedback

You layer that on top of a full-employment economy, that means higher inflation. That means they're going to have to raise rates more quickly.feedback

Are we going to get fiscal stimulus, ... finance tax cuts, deficit increases? Because that really matters for the path of future monetary policy. There's just a boatload of uncertainty here, so that's complicating things.feedback

A lot of what the Federal Reserve will do this year will depend on what President Trump and Congress do, and at the moment we have no idea what will emerge from Congress. Until there is some clarity about what President Trump and Congress have in mind, I think the Fed is going to be cautious.feedback

If we get over 200,000, it's pretty much across the board. Construction, because of the weather. Manufacturing was pretty good. Retail and temp help because they didn't hire in the Christmas buying season so they're not laying off. The most positive news is the job losses in the energy sector are over.feedback

2017 got off to a strong start in the job market. Job growth is solid across most industries and company sizes. Even the energy sector is adding to payrolls again.feedback

At the end of the day, the strategy is to create more jobs here in the United States. I think it's a failing strategy. It's not going to work. It's not going to make a difference. I don't think this changes the number of jobs that are in the vehicle industry four years from now.feedback

It's truly a global supply chain. Things are produced in lots of different places and assembled in lots of different places. It's hard to know what the foreign content of a car is, what percent of a car assembled here is produced somewhere else.feedback

The labor market feels very good. Mr. Trump is inheriting a very strong economy.feedback

It raises the odds that the Fed will not move in December.feedback

This is clearly a boost to the Clinton campaign. The economy is solid and most importantly wage growth is accelerating. And most people think of their financial world through the prism of their paycheck. Now they can say it's bigger than last year.feedback

The labor market continues to close in on full employment.feedback

However, there is some weakness in construction, education, and mining.feedback

The consumer should continue to power the economy. The job market is very strong, unemployment is low and wage growth is picking up. I don't see any constraints on the consumer.feedback

It means people who want to work are able to find jobs.feedback

With regard to the 2014 paper, it is difficult to distinguish between the information from ADP and the consensus in the past several years given that monthly job growth has been remarkably stable. The real test will occur when job growth slows significantly or actually declines in a consistent way.feedback

Job growth has moderated in recent months, but only because the economy is finally returning to full employment.feedback

If the jobs number is enough to have markets attach a more than 50 percent probability, that would be enough to get them to move.feedback

I think they can wait. I think they're very cautious. This FOMC is particularly cautious, and I don't think they'll move. I think they could have a window where markets are very calm, volatility is low. They have an opportunity. They should, but I just sense they are very cautious and will wait.feedback

Subtracting from these technical issues, I think job growth is somewhere between 175,000 and 200,000.feedback

I think you need something like 200,000 and a 4.8 percent unemployment rate. I think if you got those numbers, that could be enough to convince enough people to move.feedback

Broadly speaking, the labor market feels really good. All of the internals of the labor market are solid.feedback

The economy continues to perform well and its near-term prospects are good. The most serious threat is the persistently slow potential growth.feedback

I'm sure it will create its own riddles. It always does. I think it's going to be a solid report. I think broad-based growth across industries. Energy will still be laying off. Manufacturing will be flat. Otherwise, I expect a solid report. I expect to see solid growth in health care, professional services, leisure and hospitality.feedback

It will be pretty hard for businesses to fill some positions.feedback

This isn't about actually what will happen [politically], it's about what they say they want to get done. In the case of the Clinton campaign, they are very transparent. The problem modeling the Clinton economic policies is that there's a lot of policies. And there's a lot of moving parts.feedback

It is amazing how resilient the U.S. economy has been in the face of all these uncertainties and shocks. The job market is just incredible, and those gains will boost incomes and support stronger consumer spending in the second half of the year.feedback

The market is actually leading the way here, but I think there's also a recognition among CEOs that there's this sentiment, probably reasonably placed, that the gap between their pay and other senior executives and those at the bottom of the rung has widened, so they're sensitive to that. There's some benevolence, but I don't know that it would have happened without the job market leading the way.feedback

It's nice to try to lead the way. The labor market is tight and going to get tighter. Our biggest problem going forward is not going to be unemployment, it's going to be a lack of labor. It's not surprising that companies are trying to get out ahead of this and trying to raise wages. He's not the first. You had McDonald's, Wal-Mart, Target and Starbucks.feedback

There are pockets of weakness in North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Global competition has hurt manufacturing dependent parts of these states, and the recent slump in energy prices is also hurting.feedback

The key thing is the very large budget deficits which would ensue under his plan.feedback

Only a small part of that is paid for so you get very large budget deficits and much higher government debt–on top of an economy that's already at full employment.feedback

That would have serious implications for Europe, and also for the global economy. It's quite easy to construct scenarios where this plays out very badly over time.feedback

There's no other data that's available that would suggest job growth has slowed, certainly to the degree this number would suggest. You can't dismiss it. It's an important report, but there are times when the data, for whatever reason, are not representative of the reality of what's going on.feedback

I do expect wage growth to continue to accelerate.feedback

The job market appears to have stumbled in April. Job growth noticeably slowed, with some weakness across most sectors. One month does not make a trend, but this bears close watching as the financial market turmoil earlier in the year may have done some damage to business hiring.feedback

The job market continues on its amazing streak. The March job gain of 200,000 is consistent with average monthly job growth of the past more than four years. All indications are that the job machine will remain in high gear.feedback

At the current rate of job growth – 250K plus per month – we are absorbing any remaining slack in the labor market very rapidly. We're closing in on full employment.feedback

Job growth remains strong despite the turmoil in the global economy and financial markets. Manufacturers and energy companies are reducing payrolls, but job gains across all other industries remain robust. The U.S. economy remains on track to return to full employment by mid-year.feedback

I still see four Fed rate hikes this year. I believe the market turbulence will abate. The labor market has not been damaged by the turmoil, and job growth will be sufficient to achieve full employment by the middle of this year.feedback

Strong job growth shows no signs of abating. The only industry shedding jobs is energy. If this pace of job growth is sustained, which seems likely, the economy will be back to full employment by mid-year. This is a significant achievement, given that the last time the economy was at full employment was nearly a decade ago.feedback

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