Martin van Vliet - ING Group

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Last quote by Martin van Vliet

At the moment everyone is focusing on the political relief in Europe and the political unrest in the U.S.feedback
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May 17 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Martin van Vliet is associated, including ECB, Draghi, and inflation. Most recently, Martin van Vliet has been quoted saying: β€œAt the moment everyone is focusing on the political relief in Europe and the political unrest in the U.S.” in the article Stocks, the dollar shaken by latest crisis to rock the White House.
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Martin van Vliet quotes

We've had spike in oil prices, plus better data, so we're seeing the reflation trade come back.feedback

This is about the Trump inflation trade and the move in inflation expectations is noteworthy, but obviously ties in with the moves in the U.S.feedback

Clearly it's not Bund tantrum 2.0. I think a few people are realising the sell-off was a bit overdone, and so yields are falling now. Equally, though, if some inflation indicators next week come out higher than expected we could see selling pressures come back.feedback

Rhetoric will be very important this week. Draghi will try to play down the taper talk and may give some hints on what to expect in December.feedback

There's a decent probability of tweaks being made. The only problem I have with this assessment is that ECB officials in recent weeks have denied that there are scarcity issues.feedback

Ireland in the last few days has been the clear underperformer as markets penalise the country's strong trade links with the UK.feedback

The focus clearly is on the implementation of the measures announced in March, which suggest that the ECB has adopted a wait-and-see approach before contemplating further easing measures.feedback

Assuming they'll stop the QE programme in March 2017, our guess is that they might end up owning eight to 10 percent of outstanding corporate bonds.feedback

The implication here is that markets increasingly doubt the ECB will be able to meet its inflation mandate, not just over the coming years but also over the coming decade. The behaviour of five-year, five-year inflation since the ECB meeting is somewhat at odds with what we saw after the October ECB meeting at which (ECB president Mario) Draghi also hinted at further easing, and when the five-year, five-year rate rallied.feedback

The fact that 10-year German yields are back at around 50 basis points shows there is a flight to quality.feedback

With a sustainable recovery not yet assured – this is still very much a jobless recovery – ECB President Draghi, in his press statement, will likely keep the door to further easing wide open.feedback

April's rebound in euro zone retail sales raises hopes that consumer spending will help support the region's economic recovery.feedback

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