Masafumi Yamamoto - Mizuho Securities

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Last quote by Masafumi Yamamoto

That kind of result would not have a big impact on the yen. But it is important to see whether or not the (ruling Liberal Democratic Party) considers it a victory for Abe or not.feedback
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NEW Oct 20 2017
We can learn a lot about a person if we know what types of things he or she talks about or comments on the most frequently. There are numerous topics with which Masafumi Yamamoto is associated, including U.S., December, and dollar. Most recently, Masafumi Yamamoto has been quoted saying: “Clarity about the Fed nomination would be positive for the dollar.” in the article Asian Shares Perk Up After U.S. Senate Passes Budget Plan.
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Masafumi Yamamoto quotes

Aug 14 2017 - North Korea

Due to caution towards a further escalation in tensions over North Korea, U.S. yields and equities are expected to decline and the yen is likely keep appreciating this week.feedback

Jul 18 2017

Trump's falling popularity, although it was not spectacular from the beginning, is another hurdle for pushing for the changes, and that will be negative for the U.S. economy and the dollar.feedback

Jul 18 2017

It's hard to be bullish on the dollar, both from the monetary side and from the U.S. politics side.feedback

Jul 14 2017

After their June rate hike, the Fed is seen watching inflation trends carefully before tightening policy again. So market interest towards inflation data is very high and the dollar is likely to move widely in either direction. The euro has become top heavy over the past few days with participants unwinding some of the bloated long positions built up recently. But the euro is still likely to begin probing highs again on speculation that the ECB would begin normalising policy.feedback

Jul 11 2017 - Federal Reserve

Normalization of monetary policy in the coming months is almost priced in, and the Fed will start shrinking its balance sheet in September, and this does not necessarily mean a delay of rate hikes. This is supporting the dollar as a positive factor, and limiting its downside at the moment. I think Yellen will confirm that rate hikes are coming, and that balance sheet shrinkage will come.feedback

Jul 06 2017

Overall, the Fed's meeting minutes sounded hawkish in my view, as the possibility was mentioned for the reduction of its balance sheet in the near-term. But the dollar still slipped, showing that it has become top-heavy. The market has gotten used to the dollar strengthening this week. So even if upcoming indicators like the U.S. ISM report are in line with expectations, the dollar may drop on disappointment. The currency may need a strong upside data surprise to move further up.feedback

Jun 27 2017

Although iron ore and crude prices are stabilizing, their recovery lacks strength. The U.S. equity market also hovers at a high level, but its performance is spotty with high-tech shares falling. All in all, it is not a full 'risk on' situation.feedback

Jun 19 2017 - Brexit

My view is that Dudley won't sound too dovish, and thus allow the dollar's gradual rise to resume.feedback

Jun 16 2017 - Japan

The dollar now seems to be getting over its shock from the core CPI release.feedback

Jun 13 2017

Given that the minutes (of the last Fed meeting) contained lots of details, one possible scenario is that there will be an announcement in June and that it will start in September.feedback

May 29 2017

It seems the market has begun to realise there's political uncertainty in Italy. The dollar/yen, meanwhile, is waiting for clarification on balance sheet reduction by the Fed.feedback

May 17 2017 - Trump Presidency

There are two implications from the latest developments in Washington, first being the possibility of congressional procedures reaching an impasse and second is the potential of Trump being forced out. But judging by how steeply the dollar has fallen, participants may have already priced in much of the negative news regarding Trump. The dollar could even benefit with the market thinking of post-Trump scenarios.feedback

May 08 2017 - French election 2017

The market already priced in the victory of Macron. We saw some additional rise of the euro this morning, but considering the difficulty for Macron's party to get a majority in the national assembly election, he may not bring higher growth. The market has squared its short positions, but there are no fresh reasons to take long positions, as there will likely be no new positive developments, and limited scope for upside for the euro.feedback

Apr 30 2017

Dollar/yen is holding up, despite the weaker U.S. GDP. But there's geopolitical risk lingering here, so it will probably trade with a heavy tone.feedback

Apr 21 2017 - Front National

But if Le Pen were to get past the first round with a wide lead, the (market) impact could be large.feedback

Apr 17 2017 - Trump administration

Market reaction, if there was one, to the currency report has already faded. The U.S. Treasury does not look like it will take a strong stance on currencies. But in the case of the Trump administration the market will need to watch out for what his trade advisors may have to say on this issue.feedback

Apr 17 2017 - North Korea

It is unclear whether the situation over North Korea will escalate into military action, but uncertainty is increasing and the dollar continues to edge lower. The dollar also looks shaky technically, after slipping below the 200-day moving average of 108.80 yen.feedback

Apr 06 2017 - China

The dollar looks to remain under pressure, barring developments like a swift passage of the president's budget by the U.S. Congress or an agreement on tax reform.feedback

Mar 28 2017 - Trump Presidency

But a one-way drop by the dollar is also unlikely as the Republicans cannot face midterm elections in November of next year without enacting a single fiscal stimulus step.feedback

Mar 23 2017 - Obamacare

The vote on Obamacare is a litmus test for Trump. If he can't push through the bill (on Obamacare), it would further damage stocks. It also raises the risk of his other policies, like tax cuts, being delayed. So today's vote is of main importance to the currency market.feedback

Mar 15 2017 - Front National

The euro's rise was an initial reaction to the Dutch exit polls and the currency could rise further when the European 'mother market' comes into session later in the day. How much further support the euro can garner would depend on how the Dutch vote could now impact the French presidential elections, for example by eroding support for (Marine) Le Pen. We could see the euro gain further if spreads between French and German government bonds tighten today.feedback

Feb 12 2017 - Japan

There is relief that the summit ended without confrontation, and that the joint statement did not directly touch upon currencies issues. While the outcome of the U.S.-Japan summit itself is not a huge dollar boosting factor, the currency continues to receive firm support from expectations towards Trump's 'phenomenal' tax plans.feedback

Feb 07 2017

With the protectionist trade stance the United States is seemingly poised to adopt now a key market theme, the December U.S. trade data due later today garners attention. A trade deficit that exceeds forecasts would weigh on the dollar by raising caution in the market towards top U.S. officials, who may speak out against perceived dollar strength.feedback

Jan 16 2017 - Protectionism

But so far, I think the correction from the dollar/yen's high in December, and concerns about stronger protectionism under the new U.S. presidency, have been the dominant theme.feedback

Dec 28 2016

The dollar looks like it has run its course against the yen for now. But against the euro, the dollar still has room to gain as the pair is now trying to catch up to the widening between U.S. and German yields.feedback

Dec 26 2016

The currency market is likely to lack incentives as major markets in Asia, Europe and North America will be closed. That said, dollar/yen risks drifting below 117 on caution towards the Trump administration's protectionist policies.feedback

Nov 30 2016

I think it is just a matter of time that the dollar will test 115 yen after Mnuchin was silent about the dollar's strength.feedback

Nov 27 2016

The dollar and Treasury yields did rise steeply in a short span of time. But for participants who think the bond market's 35-year bond rally is coming to an end, this is only the early stages of a dollar surge.feedback

Nov 27 2016

Those who have been following the dollar's uptrend since early November now sit on large profits, so it is not surprising if some lock the gains in.feedback

Nov 20 2016 - Thanksgiving

The market is buying the dollar and selling U.S. Treasuries, and it seems this trend may continue because we don't know the details of 'Trumponomics,' and we will not have it until after the 20th of January next year.feedback

Nov 13 2016

The euro could be more easily exposed to negative pressure amid concerns that the win by Trump, with his anti-globalism agenda, could affect referendums and elections in Italy, Holland and France next year.feedback

Nov 09 2016

We are likely to see currencies swerve up and down today on the state-by-state Electoral College count. The market seems to have priced in a Clinton win quite significantly, but a further improvement in odds of a victory could take dollar/yen to 106.feedback

Nov 07 2016

The dollar is being bought back on lessened prospects of a Trump presidency. But so far it is not active buying, as Clinton is likely to maintain a policy that prevents a strong dollar if she is elected, and as economic prospects remain unclear.feedback

Oct 31 2016

We have to keep an eye on political and economic events in the U.S.. People are still pricing in the victory of Secretary Clinton, and a U.S. rate hike in December.feedback

Oct 31 2016

The market is not really responding sensitively to U.S. political events since Friday, so the dollar/yen is stuck ahead of 105. We have to keep an eye on political and economic events in the U.S.. People are still pricing in the victory of Secretary Clinton, and a U.S. rate hike in December.feedback

Oct 12 2016

May will accept voting at the Parliament, which is giving the pound a short-term boost, but I'm not sure it's long-lasting. It's latest fall was too much and too rapid, so it's natural to see some rebound. It seems the dollar's weakness against sterling today is affecting the other dollar currency pairs as well, which is also natural.feedback

Oct 03 2016 - British economy

Right now the reaction to Prime Minister May setting a departure deadline is mostly limited to the pound. A greater negative impact on the British economy will have be witnessed first for Brexit woes to cause broader risk aversion.feedback

Sep 29 2016

German inflation has been recovering after hitting a bottom of minus 0.3 percent in April. If we see a number in line with market expectations, that could dampen expectations of further momentary easing by the European Central Bank in December.feedback

Sep 13 2016

If the BOJ pushes rates to minus 0.3 percent next week, that will probably leave it with just one more chance to cut rates and may reinforce views there won't be much room left to slash rates. It's also uncertain whether the BOJ can dispel market concerns that its bond buying is reaching its limits.feedback

Aug 08 2016

The dollar appears to be holding strong for now, but after this week, there are lots of uncertainties.feedback

Jun 15 2016

The likelihood of the Fed hiking interest rates will be very low while Brexit worries dominate action in the financial markets.feedback

Mar 18 2016

It is easier for speculators to bet on further dollar weakness as the European and Japanese central banks have just concluded their policy meetings, meaning further easing will not take place for a while. The Japanese authorities have not been clear in their stance towards a strong yen. The market could attempt to test the authorities to see where exactly they stand on the yen.feedback

Jan 21 2016

That a Japanese official was reportedly prompted to speak on the yen was likely due to the excessive move seen on Wednesday, rather than the fact that dollar/yen fell into the 115 threshold.feedback

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