Last quote by Matt Maley
Matt Maley quotes
In other words, there are A LOT of people on the bullish side of the boat in crude oil.
The ridiculous bubble top in 2000 … was very similar to the crazy bubble top that took place in the DJIA in 1929.
Right now, the Russell is testing the bottom-end of ITS range, so if it breaks down further, it will raise a lot of concerns for the S&P. This is especially true since the Russell was a leading indicator for the S&P (to the downside) in the summer of 2015.
You got a lot of people betting a lot of money that just in the next month, you're going to see volatility.
Some of the very crowded trades, like being short the bond market, being long the bank stocks, being long the Russell 2000, things like that, may be under some near-term pressure as we move into the new year and not just for a couple weeks, but maybe even for six weeks to two months.
Buying some puts or buying some calls in the bond market can be very inexpensive and a nice way to hold on to those positions over the long term but still protect yourself at the beginning of the year.
In other words, it took a while for the strengthening dollar to have a negative impact on the EEM, but there is no question that it is finally creating some headwinds.
You might want to take advantage, just buy a few puts out there, because they're going to be relatively inexpensive, as the VIX is showing.
A 'rally on higher volume' is usually quite positive, but when it jumps THAT much at a time when it is already getting over-bought, ... it frequently signals the kind of 'buying panic' that is usually followed by at least a near-term pull-back.
But so far, we've only really had a bit of a sideways consolidation.
If it starts to creep further up from here, and if the bond market finally bounces a little bit and rates pull back to get people to calm down a little bit, that could give us an impetus to the upside.
If the market can hold up well...and if certain issues like the ones facing the emerging markets lead investors towards U.S. assets...we could still see more upside movement between now & the end of the year.
Whether you're behind and you're trying to play catch-up, but even if you're ahead, you've got to stay ahead of the market.
The group is up incredibly in the last three months, and it's getting very extended.
The market should now pull back no matter who wins ... it will just pull back more if Trump wins.
In other words, no matter what the biggest detractors of both candidates try to say, the markets & the economy will not collapse this month (or even next month).
The euro's been weak, the yen has been weak – that's going to make them more competitive, and some multinational companies in these individual countries should do quite well.